The war between Israel and Iran has amplified Turkiye’s concerns over Israeli military superiority. Ankara increasingly perceives Israel’s surplus power as a future strategic threat, prompting expectations that Turkiye will revise its defense doctrine and enhance its military arsenal. With Iran’s regional influence in decline, both Ankara and Tel Aviv realize that they will be drawn into a struggle for regional hegemony. In the wake of the Iran-Israel conflict, Syria’s strategic relevance for Turkiye – both in terms of security and geopolitics – has grown significantly. However, any future Turkish-Israeli negotiations over influence-sharing in Syria are likely to be more difficult than ever. Furthermore, Turkiye’s establishment of military bases in Syria will become increasingly difficult, given Washington’s continued full support for Israel. The US is positioned to play a critical role in managing tensions between Turkiye and Israel, especially following President Trump’s appointment of US ambassador to Ankara as special envoy to Syria. This move could influence the trajectory of Ankara-Tel Aviv relations and shape the future of Damascus’ ties with Tel Aviv.
Struggle for Hegemony: How Syria Became the Theater for the Most Dangerous Confrontation Between Turkiye and Israel (Emirates Policy Center)
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