The Baltic Sea, a semi-enclosed sea in the North Atlantic Ocean, has emerged as a fresh flashpoint amid escalating tensions following Russia’s war against Ukraine. An important maritime geography, the region hosts vital sea routes, with more than 1500 large vessels transiting it at any given time. The Baltic Sea is a shared maritime space between three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), four Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway), Central European countries such as Poland and Germany, and Russia. Moscow has two access points to the Baltic Sea: off the coast of St. Petersburg, and via the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad wedged between Poland and Lithuania. All countries in the Baltic Sea region, except Russia, are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU). This underscores the potential for the region to evolve into a new flashpoint in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. Tensions in the Baltic Sea region have been on the rise since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia’s relations with the Baltic Sea nations have soured, and the region has become more cognisant of its security interests, with states attempting to check perceived Russian threats. Moscow has also reinforced its naval assets in the region, prompting the Baltic states to scale up their military budgets and commit to collective security architectures, thereby escalating the prospect of confrontation with Russia.
Securing the Baltic: Maritime Confrontation and Strategic Posturing
