Recent escalation between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in southern Yemen reflects a more profound strategic rupture rooted in diverging threat perceptions, regional ambitions, and competing visions for the Red Sea and the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
What transformed Saudi concern into alarm was not Yemen alone, but the accumulation of Emirati activity across the Red Sea basin.
Saudi decision-makers increasingly assess that Emirati actions are moving beyond mere power projection and toward structural reconfiguration of weak states, effectively reshaping borders, authorities, and local political dynamics in ways that may be irreversible.
Absent a recalibration of Emirati regional behavior, Saudi–UAE relations are likely to remain fraught, with implications for Gulf unity, Red Sea security, and broader Middle Eastern stability.
Saudi–UAE Strategic Friction and Regional Fragmentation – The Soufan Center
