In a November 5 meeting of the Security Council of Russia, President Vladimir Putin directed his military and political leaders to “submit coordinated proposals on the possible first steps focusing on preparations for nuclear weapons tests.” Putin’s comments come a week after President Trump posted on social media that he had “instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” On the one hand, Putin’s comments fit a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine. On the other hand, these statements continue to ratchet up nuclear risks and undermine the existing nuclear order. Approximately six hours prior to Putin’s statements, the United States conducted a test of its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). We are at risk of escalation by testing. The best way to prevent Russia from resuming explosive nuclear testing is not only for the United States and other nuclear possessors to continue to observe the testing moratorium, but also for the wider international community to hold Russia and China accountable for their suspected low-yield testing in violation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The majority of signatories to the treaty agree with the U.S. interpretation that it obligates states to observe a “zero-yield” ban on nuclear testing. Trump’s recent comments, along with reports from the intelligence community, indicate Russia and China have not been meeting these terms. This rhetorical spat could either escalate to a return to nuclear testing or be an opportunity for strengthening the non-testing norm and highlighting Moscow and Beijing’s ongoing nuclear antagonism.
Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing? (Heather Williams and Lachlan MacKenzie – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
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