Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and economic development during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach, Florida on November 30.
Russian information space voices continue to argue that the Kremlin will likely reject a ceasefire or any iteration of the US-proposed peace plan because the Kremlin views these efforts as inconsequential and as a hindrance to Russia’s goals in Ukraine and globally.
The Kremlin continues to advance a false narrative that Ukraine’s front line and political stability are on the verge of collapse in an effort to convince the West to capitulate to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure militarily. ISW continues to assess that a Russian battlefield victory is neither imminent nor inevitable and that the Russian war effort has vulnerabilities the West has not exploited.
The Russian effort to seize Pokrovsk remains prolonged and costly as Russian forces are optimized for positional warfare and can only achieve a slow rate of advance.
Russian drones appear to be violating Moldovan airspace during large, combined missile and drone strikes.
Ukrainian forces successfully used the Sting interceptor drone to down Russian jet-powered long-range drones for the first time as Ukraine increases technological innovation efforts to combat Russia’s long-range drone and missile campaigns.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2025

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