Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit.
Reported Russian government insiders also indicated that the Kremlin does not support the proposed 28-point peace plan.
Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands.
The Kremlin has thus far failed to set conditions for the Russian people to accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine.
The Kremlin has similarly rejected US-proposed ceasefires and negotiations in recent months, while Ukraine has consistently shown a willingness to engage and compromise.
The proposed peace plan would not bring Russia and Ukraine closer to a just and lasting peace but would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine in the future.
Putin and Russian military commanders continue to promote the false narrative that a Russian victory is inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West into acquiescing to Russian demands.
Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials both refuted many of the Russian commanders’ claimed successes.
Russia’s battlefield successes are not inevitable, and the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to aggrandize recent Russian military activity to advocate that Ukraine surrender terrain in Donetsk Oblast that Russian forces are unlikely to actually seize.
Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Pokrovsk direction, where the situation remains serious and dynamic.
Russian military command appears to be redeploying relatively elite forces to the Pokrovsk direction, likely in response to the slowed rate of Russian advances.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Nov. 21, 2025 | ISW

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