Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
The situation in the Hulyaipole direction remains very serious as Russian forces continue to advance and maintain intensified offensive operations.
Ukrainian forces report that they are successfully pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk. These reports are generally consistent with ISW’s assessments.
The Kremlin used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate Russia’s objective of absorbing all of Ukraine into Russia – possibly under the control of Medvedchuk himself. Medvedchuk’s statements are consistent with ISW’s assessments that Russia aims to absorb all of Ukraine and with US President Donald Trump’s statements that Putin “wants all of it.”
Russian forces continue to encourage war crimes against Ukrainian servicemembers and civilians on the battlefield.
Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Nov. 16, 2025 | ISW