Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)

The US Coast Guard seized two oil tankers with links to Russia for attempting to bypass US sanctions against Venezuelan oil.
US, Ukrainian, and Coalition of the Willing officials continued talks in Paris on January 7, and details of the potential security guarantees for Ukraine are beginning to emerge.
Russian forces are likely unable to simultaneously replace losses suffered in Ukraine and build out their strategic reserves.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kharkiv and Pokrovsk directions. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and in the Hulyaipole direction.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2026 | ISW