(Institute for the Study of War)
The Kremlin continues to discuss future elections in Ukraine to advance its false claim that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and insists on means of controlling Ukraine’s politics.
The Kremlin continues to signal that it will reject any election result that does not produce such a pro-Russia government in Ukraine.
Long-term, meaningful US security guarantees for Ukraine must precede a war termination agreement to prevent the Kremlin from following through on its stated intent to reject such guarantees after Ukraine has committed to ceding territory.
General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to aggrandize Russian seizures of small villages and fields to influence ongoing negotiations and push the West and Ukraine to give in to Russian territorial demands.
Russian gains continue to move at a footpace and do not portend the collapse of the Ukrainian lines.
Recent Ukrainian tactical counterattacks have reportedly liberated multiple small settlements along the Yanchur and Haichur rivers in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions.
Russia is reportedly testing a stratospheric communications system as an alternative to Starlink, which some Russian milbloggers have already dismissed as an inadequate replacement.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions.
