(Institute for the Study of War)
Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russia’s demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede territory to Russia before receiving formal US or European security guarantee commitments.
Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to any peace agreement that allows Russia to occupy parts of Ukraine, especially if Ukraine withdraws from territory it currently holds.
Putin’s rejection of meaningful Western security guarantees for Ukraine is a greater impediment to a prospective peace deal than Ukraine’s position on ceding its territories.
The Kremlin likely sees an opportunity to manipulate the US-led negotiations process into another means through which Russia can achieve its unchanging military and political objectives, which it has failed to achieve in nearly four years of war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwavering determination to conquer more Ukrainian territory and gain full political control over Ukraine is severely degrading Russia’s military and economy at the cost of the Russian population, and Russia will increasingly have to reckon with this degradation in the coming year.
The Russian Central Bank lowered its key interest rate for the first time in 2026 and fifth time in the last 12 months, likely in an attempt to increase capital available for the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and maintain the facade of domestic economic stability.
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine through the Ramstein format, including via the purchase of US-produced weapons.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk.
