Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 4, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise during an interview with Indian media – likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations process.
Other Kremlin officials continued to publicly display their commitment to Putin’s original war aims.
The Kremlin is setting conditions to frame any future agreement to not attack and seize Odesa and Mykolaiv cities as an alleged Russian “concession” in peace negotiations, even though Russia is currently incapable of seizing these cities.
ISW has not observed evidence to suggest that Russian forces have encircled Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as some Ukrainian sources continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces maintain limited ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Russia appears to have launched a new cognitive warfare campaign aimed at spreading narratives about Russian preparations for an offensive on Chernihiv City against the backdrop of the ongoing peace negotiations.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 4, 2025 | ISW

Latest articles

Related articles