Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 22, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

False reports are likely shaping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s understanding of the battlefield situation.
FT and the Washington Post’s reports cohere with ISW’s observations from open-source information about the pervasive culture of lying in the Russian military, in contrast with the increased willingness of Kremlin officials overseeing the economy to present more truthful reports to Putin.
Putin’s own cognitive warfare effort, which exaggerates Russian advances to push Ukraine to capitulate to Russian demands during negotiations, feeds on and likely encourages the false reports his military officials provide him.
Senior US and Ukrainian officials commented on the outcome of separate meetings between US and Ukrainian as well as US and Russian representatives in Miami.
Russia reportedly rejected a US-proposed temporary ceasefire, and a high ranking Kremlin official publicly indicated that Russia will reject many of the latest Ukrainian and European peace proposals.
Ukrainian security services likely assassinated Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, the chief of the Russian General Staff’s Operational Training Department, in Moscow City on December 22.
Russian security services likely assassinated former leader of the Russian Hispaniola Brigade Stanislav Orlov in occupied Crimea on December 4.
Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 22, 2025 | ISW