Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)

US, Ukrainian, and European officials reportedly agreed on unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine during a peace negotiation meeting in Berlin, Germany, on December 15.
Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against a Russian submarine for the first time in naval history on the night of December 14 to 15.
Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking in the Kupyansk direction as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers acknowledge the severity of the situation for Russian forces.
Russian forces are striking Ukrainian logistics lines in Odesa Oblast with various air launched munitions, including glide bombs, highlighting Ukraine’s urgent need for a well provisioned and diverse air defense umbrella.
Russian strikes appear to be advancing the Kremlin’s stated goal of degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s power grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air defense systems and partner support for its drone interceptor development to safeguard itself against increasingly devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 15, 2025 | ISW

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