Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2025 (Jessica Sobieski, Jennie Olmsted, Grace Mappes, Justin Young, Nate Trotter, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War)

The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump’s announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit.
Western leaders reaffirmed the importance of strong security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure a just and lasting peace at the August 18 summit.
Russian officials largely rejected Europe’s proposed security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential peace agreement.
Western leaders expressed support for a ceasefire that may follow a possible future trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin.
Russian forces conducted long-range strikes against Ukrainian rear areas that resulted in civilian casualties ahead of the August 18 White House meetings.
Russian budgetary constraints are forcing Russia to employ alternative mechanisms to fund enlistment bonus payments and recruit soldiers for its war in Ukraine.
Russian forces are struggling to exploit the infiltration in the Dobropillya direction in the face of continued Ukrainian counterattacks.
A Russian servicemember recently murdered a Ukrainian woman in the Pokrovsk direction in clear violation of international law.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Dobropillya. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War

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