Technological innovation is reshaping the modern battlefield. Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are combining conventional warfare with electromagnetic disruption, cyber attacks, digital influence campaigns, and unmanned and autonomous systems to target U.S. partners and allies. The frontline states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are under mounting pressure from these new technological threats. Russian violations of Polish, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Romanian airspace, as well as GPS spoofing and sabotage of critical undersea infrastructure, particularly fiber-optic cables, in the Baltic and Arctic regions, illustrate the expanding scope of targeting technology and its use for subversive means. These activities reflect a broader shift toward multi-domain warfare, where ambiguity and deniability are key assets. Drone warfare is now a central feature of this evolving technological domain. Ukraine has become a world-leading drone producer and pioneer of maritime and autonomous systems since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. The PRC has also recently unveiled new unmanned systems capabilities for use in a Taiwan contingency, signaling its intent to operationalize lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine. The PRC and Russia’s military technological modernization builds on decades of Cold War-era research, illicit procurement networks, and recent battlefield experience in Ukraine. Military technology procurement, however, remains a challenge. The PRC and Russia are exploiting procurement loopholes and legacy networks to accelerate the acquisition of military technology. Beijing continues to use middlemen and shell companies to circumvent export controls, while Moscow faces constraints from sanctions, talent shortages, and budget limitations that hinder sustained innovation and production. The development of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled command systems, autonomous platforms, and integrated air defenses depends on state investment. Russia and the PRC are not merely modernizing their military technology and capabilities; they are reengineering the operational environment to exploit systemic vulnerabilities in Western defense architectures. Deterrence in this environment will depend less on mass and more on agility, resilience, and adaptability to counter new and evolving technological threats before they escalate.
Strategic Snapshot: Russia–PRC Technology and Hybrid Operations – Jamestown
