What does the future hold for the Dutch Navy in a world of climate change, global trade shifts and rising conflicts? The latest HCSS report by Davis Ellison, Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Frank Bekkers explores the future demands on the Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN) and its European partners in the 2040-2050 period. It highlights two key trends shaping maritime security: long-term shifts in global trade and climate change. We present four scenarios: deep-sea resource competition, instability around the Suez Canal, conflict with Russia over the Northern Sea Route, and a great power war between the U.S. and China. These developments could significantly strain European naval capabilities, necessitating greater flexibility and strategic prioritization. Climate change is identified as the most consequential security challenge. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and coastal flooding will threaten European nations, especially the Netherlands and Belgium, increasing the burden on the RNLN. Additionally, shifts in global trade—marked by China’s growing economic and naval power, U.S. disengagement from trade arrangements, and the opening of Arctic sea routes—will demand an expanded European naval presence along major trade corridors. Economic competition and geopolitical instability will exacerbate security risks. Regions such as North Africa and the Middle East are likely to experience persistent conflicts due to economic precarity, governance challenges, and climate-driven crises. This necessitates a European and Dutch naval strategy that balances immediate crisis response with long-term strategic positioning.
Rough Seas Ahead: Maritime Trends and Scenarios until 2050 – HCSS
