Three years of full-scale war in Ukraine have given birth to a new model of relations between Moscow and the countries of the South Caucasus. The Kremlin’s preoccupation with the fighting in Ukraine meant that Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan were able to be more assertive in their relations with Moscow and enjoyed greater freedom to shape their own foreign policy. Now, however, this “new reality” appears to be on borrowed time. The negotiations between Moscow and Washington have raised hopes of a swift end to the war in Ukraine—and as a result, have forced politicians in the region to eye a return to old diplomatic ways.
Prospect of Ukraine Ceasefire Heralds Russia’s Return to the South Caucasus (Alexander Atasuntsev, Carnegie Russia Eurasia)
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