IL NOSTRO TOPIC E’ LA “GEOSTRATEGIA DEL RISCHIO”
Percorriamo l’aspetto geopolitico del rischio. Gli USA, riporta Defense One, hanno messo la Cina come minaccia top nella loro National Defense Strategy. Altresì, scrive Nextgov, gli USA (il Pentagono in particolare) stanno “inseguendo” (traduzione letterale) la Cina e investendo su 5G e intelligenza artificiale. Tutto è puntato sulla competizione e il risultato è che il mondo è destinato a diventare sempre meno sicuro, proprio continuando a elevare l’asticella della difesa e della sicurezza. Se non può esistere un mondo senza difesa, altrettanto va detto che un mondo il più possibile sicuro può venire solo da una de-esclation planetaria. Ad oggi non si vede la luce e la prassi dominante degli analisti strategici, e conseguentemente dei decisori (in buona parte dei Paesi occidentali), è non (voler) vedere ciò che cova sotto la cenere. E’ troppo comodo limitarsi alla superficialità di ciò che accade; è troppo comodo e, al contempo, pericoloso.
Sempre guardando all’aspetto geopolitico del rischio, Reuters segnala il legame forte tra Russia e Cina. Forse ha ragione chi sostiene, e noi siamo tra quelli, che la guerra in Ucraina non sia limitata a quei confini. E’ in gioco qualcosa di più grande e il rischio, lo scrivevamo e lo ribadiamo, è che in una configurazione in progress degli equilibri internazionali l’Europa perda sempre più centralità strategica, chiusa tra gli USA e una stretta più forte tra Russia e Cina. E’ un rischio che l’Europa può permettersi ?
Oggi Stati Uniti e Repubblica Ceca hanno rinnovato il loro Dialogo Strategico. Pur nella ordinarietà di questi eventi, in una fase come l’attuale si stringono le maglie tra democrazie. E’ interessante il linguaggio usato che denota come sia sempre più evidente, e rischiosa, l’escalation dello scontro tra democrazie e autocrazie: un modo, a nostro avviso criticabile, di gestire le relazioni internazionali. Riprendiamo, dalla nota ufficiale del United States Department of State, due passaggi. Nel primo si dice “We underline our commitment to protect and defend every inch of NATO territory”: non si distingue tra il linguaggio diplomatico e quello militare. Nel secondo passaggio si dice: “The Strategic Dialogue focused on reaffirming the strong, steady, and deepening bilateral cooperation between the United States and the Czech Republic and our joint commitment to enhance cooperation on a broad range of topics, including closer cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific region. We also affirm our commitment to deepen support and cooperation with democratic partners in the region and around the world, such as Taiwan.”. Il punto strategico è chiaro: che tipo di supporto e di cooperazione s’immagina per e con Taiwan ? Rischio Cina, e la provocazione continua.
TODAY:
- AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
- DEFENSE – MILITARY
- ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflicts)
Israel
- Recent terrorist attacks in Israel undermine ‘prospects for peace’: Guterres, March 30. By UN News. Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday night condemned recent terrorist attacks in Israel that have claimed the lives of at least 11 Israeli citizens. (read more)
Sri Lanka
- Sri Lanka suffers long power cuts as currency shortage makes fuel scarce, March 30. By Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters. Sri Lankans faced 10-hour power cuts on Wednesday and warnings of longer blackouts on Thursday, as a deepening economic crisis roiled markets and the electricity regulator urged more than a million government employees to work from home to save fuel. (read more)
Uganda
- Uganda says military kills 309 in security push in mineral-rich region. By Elias Biryabarema, Reuters. Uganda’s military has killed 309 people in an eight-month-old operation against cattle rustling in a northeast region rich in minerals including gold, limestone and potentially oil, the armed forces said. (read more)
USA – Czech Republic
- Joint Statement from the U.S.-Czech Republic Strategic Dialogue, March 30. By US Department of State
DEFENSE – MILITARY
- DSS Office of Overseas Protective Operations trains with FAST Marines in Jordan, March 30. By US Department of State
- Pentagon’s Effort to Supply Departmentwide Cloud Capabilities is Delayed, Again, March 29. By Lauren C. Williams and Brandi Vincent, Nextgov. The Defense Department is delaying the award for its latest multibillion-dollar program to provide enterprise-wide commercial cloud services to the end of the year—which means certain solutions likely won’t be deployed until at least mid-2023. Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft and Oracle were named by the Pentagon as contenders for the potentially massive $9 billion Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability contract in November and invited to submit proposals. (read more)
- New Tech Budget Request is the Defense Department’s Largest Ever, March 29. By Patrick Tucker, Nextgov. Efforts to outpace China are driving up the share of Pentagon spending devoted to emerging science and technology, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said Monday. The Biden administration is requesting $130 billion for the department’s research, engineering, development, and testing for 2023, nearly 10 percent up from last year’s request. Of that, $16.5 billion will go toward emerging science and technology. (read more)
- China Tops Threats in New Defense Strategy, March 29. By Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. China is the No. 1 priority in the new National Defense Strategy, according to an unclassified fact sheet released Monday evening by the Defense Department. The fact sheet lists the Pentagon’s top four defense priorities, but makes clear that China is “our most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge for the department.”. (read more)
- New Budget Would Modify Planes, Pursue Hybrid Vehicles To Tackle Climate Change, March 29. By Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. The Pentagon’s fiscal 2023 budget request is a “turning point” for the military’s efforts to fight climate change, the Defense Department’s top climate officer said Tuesday. The request includes millions of dollars to prepare bases for extreme weather, make warplanes more fuel-efficient, and more. (read more)
- Let’s Correct a Misperception About Nuclear Modernization, March 29. By Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., and Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., Defense One. As Chairman and Ranking Member on the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, we believe it is important to correct a false impression about a small but important component in the American nuclear arsenal. Five months ago, the Washington Post published an article about a new nuclear weapon fuze, the mechanism that detonates a warhead at the right time and place. Production of the new fuzes for the Navy’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles reached a new milestone last July, the article reported, and the Air Force’s intercontinental ballistic missiles will soon follow suit. (read more)
- US Army’s short-range air defense capability will grow to a battalion by year’s end. March 30. By Jen Judson, Defense News. The Army plans to field a complete battalion equipped with Short-Range Air Defense systems by the end of 2022, service officials in charge of the effort told Defense News. The service has already outfitted a platoon within the 5th Battalion, 4th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, in Europe with the interim Stryker-based SHORAD systems, but is now fulfilling its full fielding plans beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 and wrapping up in the first quarter of FY23, Maj. Gen. Robert Rasch, the Army’s Program Executive Officer for Missiles and Space, said in a recent interview. The moves will be “based upon all the production time,” he added. (read more)
- Palantir taps former Pentagon officials for new advisory board, March 30. By Stephen Losey, Defense News. Palantir Technologies, a software and data integration firm that specializes in defense, intelligence and homeland security matters, has named several prominent former defense officials to its first federal advisory board. (read more)
- Army Software Factory tackling problems big and small, March 30. By
ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
- Treasury Wants to Know How the Government Might Grow Cyber Insurance Market, March 29. By Mariam Baksh, Nextgov. The Treasury Department is asking what the federal government might do to boost the insurance industry for cyber terrorism in an effort to assess the effectiveness of a national reinsurance program established in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. A notice set to publish in the Federal Register Wednesday seeks comment within 45 days on “any potential changes to the [Terrorism Risk Insurance Act] or [Terrorism Risk Insurance Program] that would encourage the take up of insurance for cyber-related losses arising from acts of terrorism as defined under TRIA, including but not limited to the modification of the lines of insurance covered by TRIP and revisions to the current sharing mechanisms for cyber-related losses.”. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- China, Russia ‘more determined’ to boost ties, Beijing says, March 30. By Reuters. Moscow and Beijing are “more determined” to develop bilateral ties and boost cooperation, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Wednesday following a meeting in eastern China with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, amid the Ukraine crisis. China, Russia ‘more determined’ to boost ties, Beijing says
- Russia says Ukraine willing to meet core demands, but work continues, March 30. By Reuters. Russia’s lead negotiator at talks with Ukraine said on Wednesday that Kyiv had stated a willingness to meet core Russian demands, but that Moscow’s position on the Donbas region and annexed Crimea remained unchanged. (read more)
- Russia bombs Ukraine cities, despite pledge to pull back from Kyiv, March 30. By Vitalii Hnidyi and Sergiy Karazy, Reuters. Russian forces bombarded the outskirts of Kyiv and a besieged city in northern Ukraine on Wednesday, a day after promising to scale down operations there in what the West dismissed as a ploy to regroup by invaders taking heavy losses. (read more)
- Russia’s Kyiv Pullback is ‘Not a Real Withdrawal,’ Pentagon Warns, March 29. By Tara Copp, Defense One. The Pentagon warned Tuesday that Russia’s announcement that it was “drastically reducing hostilities” in Kyiv and Chernihiv is not a real withdrawal and said Russian leader Vladimir Putin still hopes to take all of Ukraine. (read more)
- Russia Has Fired ‘Multiple’ Hypersonic Missiles Into Ukraine, US General Confirms, March 29. By Patrick Tucker, Defense One. Russia has fired “multiple” hypersonic missiles at military targets in Ukraine, the top U.S. commander in Europe said on Tuesday, bringing some clarity to conflicting reports and claims. (read more)
