OUR MAIN TOPIC IS THE GEOSTRATEGY OF RISK
TODAY
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- AROUND THE WORLD. ONGOING RELATIONS, CRISIS, CONFLICTS
- LOOK IN CHINA
- ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reaction, consequences)
by Natia Seskuria – RUSI
With Russian forces struggling to make progress in Ukraine, Putin is resorting to ever more extreme domestic measures to shore up his regime. (read more)
by Gareth Price – Chatham House
Since the war in Ukraine began, India has abstained from various procedural votes relating to the conflict, along with the early March resolution censuring Russia for its military actions. India, along with China and 33 other countries abstained; five countries including Russia opposed the motion while 141 supported it. What lies behind India’s stance on Russia and its invasion of Ukraine? (read more)
by IAEA
The International Atomic Energy Agency is closely monitoring the situation in a Ukrainian city where many people live who work at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) after the country’s nuclear regulator today informed the IAEA it had been seized by Russian forces, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. (read more)
by Oleksandr Kozhukhar – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, visibly irritated, on Saturday demanded Western nations provide a fraction of the military hardware in their stock piles and asked whether they were afraid of Moscow. (read more)
by Reuters
Russia struck military targets in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv with high-precision cruise missiles, the Russian defence ministry said on Sunday. (read more)
by Reuters
Traders have exported the first supplies of Ukrainian corn to Europe by train as the country’s sea ports remain blocked due to the Russian invasion, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Sunday. (read more)
by Lidia Kelly – Reuters
Ukraine has asked the International Committee of the Red Cross not to open a planned office in Russia’s Rostov-on-Don, saying it would legitimise Moscow’s “humanitarian corridors” and the abduction and forced deportation of Ukranians. (read more)
- Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 27
by Fredrick W. Kagan and George Barros – ISW
Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Sergei Rudskoi on March 25 notwithstanding. The Russian military continues to concentrate replacements and reinforcements in Belarus and Russia north of Kyiv, to fight for positions on Kyiv’s outskirts, and to attempt to complete the encirclement and reduction of Chernihiv. Russian activities around Kyiv show no change in the Russian high command’s prioritization of the fight around Ukraine’s capital, which continues to occupy the largest single concentration of Russian ground forces in Ukraine. The Russians have not claimed to redeploy forces from Kyiv or any other part of Ukraine to concentrate on fighting in Donbas, and we have observed numerous indicators that they have not done so. The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time. (read more)
by Jarrett Renshaw and Natalia Zinets – Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a butcher who “cannot remain in power” after meeting Ukrainian refugees in Poland, as Kremlin forces stepped up attacks across Ukraine, including the western city of Lviv. (read more)
AROUND THE WORLD. ONGOING RELATIONS, CRISIS, CONFLICTS
CHINA – INDIA
- The paradox of China–India relations, March 26
by Meghna Srivastava and Yves Tiberghien – East Asia Forum
Recent relations between China and India have been divided by both security tensions and opposite alliances. But on 25 March, the China–India relationship seems to have taken a major step forward with the unexpected visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India. (read more)
CHINA – NEPAL
by Xinhua – Global Times
China believes the affairs of Nepal should be decided by its people, and China opposes any attempt to undermine Nepal’s sovereignty and independence, interfere in its internal affairs and engage in geopolitical games in the country, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday at a meeting with Nepali Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka in Kathmandu. (read more)
DOHA FORUM
by Al Jazeera
The 20th edition of the Doha Forum, which kicked off at the Sheraton Hotel in the Qatari capital, is the biggest global platform that brings together policy leaders to discuss critical challenges facing the world, promote the interchange of ideas, and action-oriented recommendations. Under the title Transforming for a New Era, the two-day forum will host a number of discussions centred around geopolitical alliances and international relations; the financial system and economic development; defence, cybersecurity, and food security; and sustainability and climate change. (read more)
EGYPT
by HRW
Egyptian police arbitrarily arrested at least 30 Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers during raids in December 2021 and January 2022 and subjected some to forced physical labor and beatings, Human Rights Watch said today. (read more)
ESWATINI
by Christopher Vandome, Koffi Sawyer – Chatham House
Protests in the kingdom of Eswatini which first started back in May 2021 – and in which scores of citizens have died – have continued into 2022, creating increased domestic pressure to address longstanding demands for democratic reforms. (read more)
GERMANY
by Andreas Rinke and Sarah Marsh – Reuters
Germans head to the polls in the small western state of Saarland on Sunday in the first of four regional votes this year which could enable Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz to consolidate his grip on power. (read more)
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
by Reuters
U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley said on Sunday that he is not confident that a nuclear deal between Western powers and Iran is imminent. (read more)
by Reuters
A senior advisor to Iran’s supreme leader said on Sunday that a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers was imminent but could only happen if the United States showed political will. (read more)
MYANMAR
by Reuters
Myanmar’s junta chief on Sunday said the military would not negotiate with “terrorist” opposition forces, vowing to annihilate them during a speech on Armed Forces Day, as opponents of last year’s coup vowed they would fight on. (read more)
by Allegra Mendelson – Al Jazeera
Myanmar’s military usually marks Armed Forces Day with a grand parade in the country’s capital as commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing – in full regalia – inspects his troops from an open-topped four-wheel drive. Last year, as the generals celebrated the occasion with its usual pomp, security forces across the country launched lethal attacks against protesters opposed to the February coup, killing some 160 civilians in a single day. (read more)
PAKISTAN
by Sushant Sareen – ORF
Throughout his entire political career, Imran Khan has always used cricketing metaphors, both to sound intelligent, even profound, and also to strike a chord with the crowds. Perhaps it is, therefore, only appropriate to use a cricketing metaphor to explain the difficult, almost impossible, situation which his government finds itself in: Last over, five balls left, 36 runs required. Clearly, a lost cause, unless, of course, there is some miracle—one or more no-balls bowled by the opposing side, or the umpires (judges) make some very controversial decisions, or possibly some last minute divine intervention. (read more)
SRI LANKA
by Meenakshi Ganguly – HRW
The Sri Lankan government has attempted to dodge growing international pressure to end abuses under its notorious Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) by rushing cosmetic amendments through parliament this week. United Nations human rights experts and the European Union have also recognized that the revisions do not address the law’s most abusive provisions. (read more)
UK
by Kartik Raj – HRW
This week could have seen the United Kingdom government finally take steps to address the negative impact of the cost of living crisis on families on low incomes. But the plans set out on March 23 by finance minister Rishi Sunak will leave people on the lowest incomes worse off, just as prices of food and energy prices soar. (read more)
USA – ARAB/ISRAELI SUMMIT
by Humeyra Pamuk – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicks off a Middle East trip on Sunday in Israel, where he will take part in a rare Arab-Israeli summit and hold talks with regional partners on stalled Iran nuclear talks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Blinken will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on the first leg of a Middle East and North Africa trip lasting until March 30. (read more)
LOOK IN CHINA
by Ayjaz Wani – ORF
The presence of Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi as ‘special guest’ in the 48th Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Pakistan on 22 and 23 March, comes at the time when more than a million Uyghur Muslims are in concentration camps in China. (read more)
ON LIFE (technology, the future of the internet, cybersecurity, data)
Cybersecurity
by Ines Kagubare – The Hill
Recent White House warnings urging the private sector to shore up its cyber defenses have experts questioning why U.S. officials haven’t already defined what constitutes cyberwarfare. (read more)
by Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs
The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has added 15 vulnerabilities to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog. (read more)
by Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) added multiple Kaspersky products and services to its Covered List saying that they pose unacceptable risks to U.S. national security. (read more)
