Open newsletter – march 19, 2022 a.m.

AFRICA

• Transitioning some 900 million Africans from biomass fuels to more affordable and environmentally friendly options over the next year could help prevent the deaths of millions of Africans (particularly women and children), foster social stability, and unlock significant labor market productivity. Raymond Gilpin – Brookings – Africa’s just energy transition could boost health outcomes

CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA

• On 25 January 2022, an unprecedented blackout spread across much of southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. This is not the first time that Central Asia has experienced power outages, which have increased alarmingly in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. In neighbouring South Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan have also been dealing with energy insecurity. Dimitris Symeonidis – East Asia Forum – Obstacles to energy security in Central and South Asia

CHINA – USA – TAIWAN

• President Joe Biden on Friday warned President Xi Jinping of the “implications and consequences” if China provides “material support” to Russia as it wages an unprovoked war on Ukraine. Myah Ward – Politico – Biden warns Xi of ‘consequences’ if China supports Russia’s attack on Ukraine
• President Joe Biden’s two-hour video call with China’s President Xi Jinping on Friday exposed a deepening divide between the leaders’ positions on both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s claims to Taiwan. Phelim Kine – Politico – Biden’s call with Xi underscores deepening bilateral deadlock
• Chinese president made comments in call with US counterpart Joe Biden, just hours after a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through Taiwan Strait. Al Jazeera – Xi tells US to handle Taiwan ‘properly’ to avoid damaging ties

CZECH REPUBLIC

• The Czech Republic is planning to buy additional UH-1Y Venom and AH-1Z Viper helicopters for its military, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the country’s existing fleet is “insufficient,” according to Defense Minister Jana Černochová. Jaroslaw Adamowski – Defense News – Czech Republic weighs upping its order of Bell-made Venom, Viper helicopters

DEFENSE

• (Fincantieri) The PPAs are built at the Integrated Shipyard of Riva Trigoso and Muggiano, with deliveries expected until 2026, and they are part of the renewal plan of the operational lines of the Italian Navy vessels, approved by the Government and Parliament and started in May 2015 (“Naval Act”) under the aegis of OCCAR (Organisation Conjointe de Cooperation sur l’Armement, the international organization for cooperation on arms). Xavier Vavasseur – Naval News – Fincantieri Delivers First PPA ‘Thaon Di Revel’ to Italian Navy
• This milestone marks a mandatory step forward in the development, possible production and integration on board of the U212 NFS fleet. Naval News – U212 NFS’ Lithium battery system completes System Design Review
• (USA-Japan-Australia) The training was designed to address common maritime security priorities and concerns, enhance interoperability and communication, develop mutually-beneficial relationships, as well as promote navigational freedom in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Naval News – U.S., Japan, Australia Conduct Trilateral training in South China Sea
• Saab will conduct an extensive MLU on Sweden’s Gotland-class submarine HMS Halland, including an overhaul and upgrade of the combat system. Naval News – Saab Inks Upgrade Contract for Third Gotland-class Submarine
• In an impressive firepower display, Pakistan Navy Fleet units demonstrated combat readiness and warfighting potential by Live Weapon Firings of Anti-ship Missiles and Torpedoes in the North Arabian Sea. Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi witnessed the Live weapons firings along with senior officers from Tri-services. Naval News – Pakistan Navy conducts missile and torpedo firings during Sea Spark 2022
• Delivering exceptional durability and reliability, configured for ease of deployment from all platforms and offering class-leading sensor and navigation performance, HUGIN Edge is the newest member of the HUGIN family of AUVs. The new design combines elements of HUGIN’s carbon monocoque approach used with success for the last 20 years coupled with extensive hydrodynamic modeling to refine the hull’s low-drag shape. HUGIN Edge stands out as a next-generation vehicle designed specifically to answer the performance and efficiency challenges set by the modern world. Naval News – Kongsberg Launches Latest Version of HUGIN AUV

ENERGY WEAPON

• The term “energy weapon” is easily misused and often abused. U.S. policymakers have often accused Russia of weaponizing energy. Successive U.S. administrations have worried that Europe would not mount an effective response to aggression because of its reliance on Russia for energy. And as U.S. oil and gas production started to increase, so did hopes that the United States could counter Russia’s energy weapon with its own—a belief most clearly articulated during the Donald Trump presidency under the banner of “energy dominance.” A few weeks into the conflict, what can we say about the energy weapon? Nikos Tsafos – CSIS – The Energy Weapon—Revisited

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

• Inflation has returned, and it is wreaking havoc. Surging economic activity, supply-chain disruptions, and soaring commodity prices combined in 2021 to push global inflation to its highest level since 2008 (Figure 1). Among emerging market and developing economies, inflation reached its highest level since 2011. It now exceeds inflation targets in more than half of these economies with an inflation-targeting framework. Indermit Gill and Peter Nagle – Brookings – Inflation could wreak vengeance on the world’s poor
• The Paris Declaration of 2005 galvanized the aid effectiveness agenda around five core principles: country ownership, donor harmonization, alignment with country priorities, managing for results (for which evidence-based decisionmaking is essential), and mutual accountability (including transparency). The agenda has been widely adopted at the policy level, but less so in execution. George Ingram – Brookings – Aid effectiveness: Scaling and digital public goods

INDIA

• In a welcome change from the past, particularly in the post-Doklam 2017 period, the nation is witnessing a coalescence of sensitivities on matters of national defence. This is a welcome attitudinal change in the State’s past policy of strategic reticence in the face of incessant acts of hostilities perpetrated against the Indian nationhood by the duo of powerful and irrepressibly India-animus neighbours. Lt Gen Gautam Banerjee – VIF – India: Gearing Up for National Defence

MOZAMBIQUE 

• In March 2021, roughly a dozen US Army Green Berets arrived in Mozambique to help train the Mozambican armed forces. In October, the USS Hershel “Woody” Williams made a port call to the capital described by the US ambassador to Mozambique as indicative of the “strength of the strategic partnership” with the United States. This increased security cooperation, which has made the United States the largest bilateral donor to Mozambique, comes as the southeast African nation attempts to contain a surging Islamic State affiliate. José de Arimatéia da Cruz – Modern War Institute- Fueling Insurgency: Liquified Natural Gas, ISIS, and Green Berets in Mozambique

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a massive refugee crisis. The Biden administration is reportedly considering letting some Ukrainian refugees resettle in the United States, and has allowed those already in the U.S. to extend their stays. This is a great start. But the administration should not ignore the tens of thousands of Russians trying to flee Vladimir Putin’s government. Allowing Russians to resettle here would undermine Putin’s rule, reduce his economic resources and deprive him of manpower needed to wage war. David J. Bier – Politico – Opinion | The U.S. Should Encourage Russians to Defect
• While Indonesia’s government has condemned the invasion, the mood online is more sympathetic to Russia. Al Jazeera – Why are Indonesians on social media so supportive of Russia?
• IMF says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may ‘fundamentally alter’ the global economic order. Al Jazeera – Could Ukraine war plunge the global economy into a new crisis?
• In the wake of the Kremlin’s unprecedented aggression against Ukraine, fears are mounting of potential ‘spillover’ into the Arctic and implications for the existing rules-based Arctic order. Elizabeth Buchanan – RUSI – The Ukraine War and the Future of the Arctic
• While negotiations do offer some hope, Russia is still bombarding non-military assets, reducing cities to rubble, and committing war crimes against civilians in Ukraine – leaving eight years of largely successful nation-building and progress in governance, the economy and society already shattered. Adam Kowalski – Chatham House – The cost of ceding advantage to Russia is far-reaching
• The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the FBI acknowledged providers and customers of U.S. satellite networks may be in Russia’s crosshairs as the conflict over Ukraine’s sovereignty continues. Mariam Baksh – Nextgov – CISA, FBI Warn of Russian Threat to Satellite Networks
• The debate over whether the United States should facilitate the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine is heating up on Capitol Hill, where a growing number of lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration to fulfill Kyiv’s request for more air power. Mike Lillis – The Hill – Support in both parties grows for providing air power to Ukraine

USA 

• The Biden-Harris White House announced a new commitment in commercial fusion as a means to a cleaner energy economy with a historic summit, featuring the private and public sectors’ commitment to furthering the U.S. fusion energy industry. Alexandra Kelley – Nextgov – Biden Aims For Energy Independence, Climate Health With Nuclear Fusion Technology Initiatives
• The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency announced Friday that it has awarded General Dynamics Information Technology its User Facing and Data Center Services contract—valued at up to $4.5 billion over the next 10 years. Frank Konkel – Nextgov – NGA Awards GDIT $4.5 Billion Data Services Contract

• Federal agencies and officials utilizing artificial intelligence systems need to vigilantly monitor and control for systemic and racial biases included in machine learning technology, according to a new report from the National Institute of Standards and Technology. This recommendation comes from an extensive report on how organizations and enterprises, both private and public, can cultivate better trust in artificial intelligence. Alexandra Kelley – Nextgov – NIST Advocates Human-Centric Focus of AI Tech

• Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has given the world a visceral reminder of the value of NATO. But it’s easy to forget just how close the United States recently came to quitting the alliance—and how uncertain the future of U.S. participation will remain unless Congress takes steps to protect it. Scott R. Anderson – Defense One – Congress Still Needs to Protect America’s NATO Membership
• A lawsuit filed be a former Google employee on Friday alleged that the company engaged in systemic bias against Black employees and maintains a corporate culture that favors white males. Nathalie Prieb – The Hill – Lawsuit against Google alleges systemic bias against Black employees

• The Air Force’s next budget proposal, expected to be released by the end of March, will provide more clues on how it hopes to mix manned fighters and bombers with autonomous combat dron

• es. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall views this concept as so vital that elements of it made up two of the seven operational imperatives he outlined in his March 3 keynote address to the Air Force Association’s Air Warfare Symposium here. Stephen Losey – Defense News – Air Force aims to sharpen vision for teaming pilots with drones

• The Department of Defense this week released a public version of its Joint All-Domain Command and Control strategy, offering a fresh peek at the Pentagon’s plans to revolutionize battlefield communications and data digestion. The eight-page document, shared March 17, lays out definitions, principles and long-range goals while also pushing JADC2 as more of a philosophy than a technology, more of a means than a product. Colin Demarest, Courtney Albon – Defense News – Pentagon’s JADC2 strategy focuses on ‘approach’