Open newsletter – april 8, 2022 a.m.

RIFLESSIONI (di Marco Emanuele)

8 aprile 2022

Direzioni strategiche

TODAY:

• AROUND THE WORLD
• DEFENSE – MILITARY – SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE
• PERSPECTIVES
• RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

AROUND THE WORLD

China

• The Reshuffling Report. April 7. By Cheng Li, China-US Focus. If the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2017 presented the coming-of-age of the post-1960s generation (6G) at the ministerial and provincial levels of the Chinese leadership, the forthcoming 20th Party Congress will witness the rise to predominance of this age cohort in the top national leadership. Although Xi Jinping and a few other post-1950s generation (5G) leaders will remain in a few top positions, the post-1960s age cohort is expected to become a majority of the 25-member Politburo and other prominent leadership bodies. (read more)

Hungary

• Triumphant Orbán Thumbs his Nose at the West, April 7. By Péter Krekó, CEPA. Hungary’s premier won a crushing victory in the April 3 election, registering a two-thirds (and therefore constitution-changing) parliamentary majority. (read more)

Israel

• Israeli forces shoot Palestinian who killed two in Tel Aviv bar, April 8. By Reuters.  A Palestinian who killed two people in a Tel Aviv bar was shot to death on Friday by Israeli security forces after an hours-long manhunt through the city. (read more)

Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka’s political turmoil risks derailing the economy further, April 8. By Anushka Wijesinha, East Asia Forum. Sri Lanka is facing unprecedented political turmoil, and with the economy in a tailspin it is in its weakest state in decades. The country is staring down the barrel of a sovereign debt default and is exposed to external shocks. (read more)

USA

• Introducing the Transforming Cities Lab: How three local governments are making federal funds work for the long-term, April 7. By Lavea Brachman, Brookings. When Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb took office in January, it had been 16 years since the city’s mayorship turned over. The leadership change comes at an auspicious time. Along with taking a fresh look at city priorities, Mayor Bibb and his team have an opportunity to take bold steps with the federal funds flowing to the city—approximately $512 million from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP) alone. (read more)
• Institutionalizing inclusive growth: Rewiring systems to rebuild local economies, April 7. By Joseph Parilla, Ryan Donahue, and Sarena Martinez, Brookings. Leaders in America’s cities and regions are grappling with the fallout of a severe pandemic, historic economic crisis, and social and racial reckoning. In this post-crisis moment, a wide range of local government, business, civic, and community organizations—which in the past tended to operate in isolation, if not at cross purposes—are navigating their disparate narratives and goals, rethinking their missions to drive economic and racial inclusion, and forming new systemic alliances that will enable them to improve and scale their efforts. Drawing inspiration from case studies profiling efforts to “rewire systems” in five older industrial cities (Akron, Ohio; Birmingham, Ala.; Cincinnati, Ohio; St. Paul, Minn., and Syracuse, N.Y.), this report provides a framework and practical examples that can guide local action and state, federal, corporate, and philanthropic investment in cities across the nation.(read more)

USA – China

• Hicks: Today’s Russia Problem Mustn’t Distract from Tomorrow’s China Problem, April 7. By Patrick Tucker, Defense One. As terrible as Russia’s war in Ukraine is, it pales in comparison to a potential fight against China, the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said. The Ukrainian conflict “is not the degree of difficulty that we are looking at in terms of what we need to have to fight in the future,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told reporters traveling with her to visit startups and technology partners in California this week. “You even see the Ukrainians asking for more and more advanced systems themselves. But, the [United States], we’re very focused on how to make sure we have a really combat credible capability,” to deter China. (read more)

DEFENSE – MILITARY – SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE

• US Army initiates plan to replace Stingers with next-gen interceptor, April 7. By Jen Judson and Joe Gould, Defense News. The U.S. Army has launched an effort to replace Stinger missiles with a next-generation interceptor for Short-Range Air Defense capability as the aging weapon system heads toward obsolescence, according to a solicitation recently posted to the government contracting website Sam.gov. The request for information to industry for a new surface-to-air missile for the Army’s SHORAD system comes as the Pentagon has been sending Javelin and Stinger missiles to Ukraine to help it fight the ongoing Russian invasion. But even as the Army considers that version of the Stinger obsolete, senior defense officials are discussing with industry how production might be ramped up. (read more)
• U.S. Navy’s unmanned vessel plans need improvement, watchdog agency says, April 7. By Geoff Ziezulewicz, Defense News. While the U.S. Navy is steaming full speed ahead in developing unmanned surface and undersea drones to augment the fleet of the future, the information technology and artificial intelligence that will drive these platforms remains a work in progress. The sea service needs to better map out its efforts, according to a government watchdog report released this week. Navy shipbuilding plans call for spending more than $4 billion on such drones over the next five years, but that plan “does not account for the full costs to develop and operate these systems,” a Government Accountability Office report found. (read more)
• DoD seeks ‘huge jump’ in budget for hypersonic test facilities, April 7. By Joe Gould, Defense News. The Pentagon’s fiscal 2023 budget request includes a “huge jump” for hypersonic weapons testing and facilities, something the defense industry has sought, according to the department’s head of research and development. “If you look at this particular test asset ― facilities ― there’s a huge jump in the budget for equipment and test ranges,” the undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, Heidi Shyu, told Defense News on Wednesday. (read more)
• Industry teams aim to fly prototypes of future attack recon aircraft by end of 2023, April 7. By Jen Judson, Defense News. The two industry teams building prototypes in a competition for the U.S. Army’s future attack reconnaissance aircraft want to fly them by the end of 2023. The service plans to procure two future vertical lift aircraft — FARA and a future long-range assault aircraft — by 2030. (read more)
• MBDA boss rallies European governments to spend locally, April 7. By Andrew Chuter, Defense News. MBDA chief executive Eric Beranger has urged European governments to direct new spending aimed at rebuilding military capabilities to be spent in the region rather than procuring foreign-made equipment. Speaking at an April 6 press conference in Paris, he argued Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine should be a wake-up call for European efforts to achieve greater defense independence. “The Ukrainian drama is emphasizing again the importance of sovereignty,” he said. “Suddenly, Europe is harshly reminded that enjoying the way we live requires us to be protected, defended with military action.”. (read more)
• As B-21 bomber prep ramps up, Air Force awards contract for advance parts, April 7. By  Stephen Losey, Defense News. The Air Force has awarded Northrop Grumman a $108 million contract to buy items in advance that will be needed to build the B-21 Raider bomber, but might take a long time to acquire. The contract to support the acquisition of long lead items needed to build the first lot of production B-21s, announced in a Wednesday release, is the service’s latest step toward fielding the next-generation stealth bomber. (read more)

PERSPECTIVES

• A holistic approach to strengthening the semiconductor supply chain, April 7. By Sarah Kreps, Richard Clark, and Adi Rao, Brookings. The COVID-19 pandemic brought the consequences of offshoring semiconductors into sharp relief for American consumers and businesses. When the pandemic struck—snarling global supply chains and spiking demand for consumer electronics—American businesses and consumers were left without the inputs and supplies they had come to rely upon. This supply chain will remain at risk: Its core nodes remain in locations with high geopolitical uncertainty—none more important than Taiwan, whose semiconductor industry Beijing jealously eyes. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Russia, Ukraine, and the Misuse of History, April 7. By Gian Gentile, Raphael S. Cohen, Defense One. In the five weeks since Russia invaded Ukraine, scores of articles have drawn upon history to explain Moscow’s actions and intent. Some point to the Soviet suppression of a democracy movement in Hungary in 1956, while others draw lessons from the Russian Federation’s assault on the Chechen city of Grozny in 1999. The idea seems to be to fit Russia’s actions in Ukraine into a “playbook” that might tell us what happens next. But this approach, whether applied to the current conflict or others, often obscures the uniqueness of given historical events. The 20th-century philosopher George Santayana said that those who do not understand the past are condemned to repeat it. Notice that Santayana chose the word “past” and not the word “history.” That is because history constructs a story of the past;  history itself is not repeatable. (read more)
• What Would Ukrainian ‘Victory’ Look Like? GOP Lawmaker Asks, April 7. By Elizabeh Howe, Defense One. Defense Secretary Austin was just the latest government official to be accused of swerving questions about how the war in Ukraine will end. (read more)
• US Cyber Command reinforces Ukraine and allies amid Russian onslaught, April 7. By  Colin Demarest, Defense News. U.S. Cyber Command has played a pivotal role in shielding networks and critical infrastructure stateside and abroad in the run up to and during Russia’s attack on Ukraine, its leader told Congress this week. Along with tasking teams with identifying cyber vulnerabilities and threats — operations that have since “bolstered the resilience of Ukraine” and others — the command has gleaned and shared intelligence, worked hand-in-glove with U.S. government and industry, and pursued extensive contingency planning, Gen. Paul Nakasone said April 5. (read more)
• Senate passes bill to clear hurdles in loaning military equipment to Ukraine, April 7. By Bryant Harris, Defense News. The Senate on Wednesday unanimously passed a bill that alleviates bureaucratic hurdles associated with loaning U.S. military equipment to Ukraine. The move came ahead of several other votes on Thursday levying additional penalties on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. (read more)
• Putin’s ‘probably given up’ on Kyiv as Ukraine war enters new phase, April 7. By Joe Gould, Defense News. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russian President Vladimir Putin has “probably given up” on trying to capture the capital city of Kyiv, as Russia has shifted its focus to eastern and southern Ukraine. “Putin thought he could really rapidly take over the country of Ukraine, very rapidly take over the capital city; he was wrong,” Austin said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Thursday. (read more)
• South Caucasus Shudder in the Shadow of Russia’s War, April 7. By Emil Avdaliani, CEPA. Balancing is the most commonplace word in the South Caucasus. This is how the three states approach the war Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (read more)
• Missile Defense Ukraine, April 7. By CSIS. CSIS director of the Missile Defense Project, Tom Karako joins the podcast to discuss missile use in Ukraine by Russia, the anti-tank and anti-aircraft defenses Ukraine is utilizing, and a discussion of what escalation might look like. (read more)
• Ukraine presses on with efforts to evacuate trapped civilians, April 8. By Reuters. Ukraine said it aimed to establish up to 10 humanitarian corridors to evacuate trapped civilians on Friday, but civilians trying to flee besieged Mariupol will have to use private vehicles. (read more)
• Russia laments ‘tragedy’ of troop deaths as Ukraine braces for offensive, April 8. By Natalia Zinets, Reuters. Russia gave the most sombre assessment so far of its invasion of Ukraine, describing the “tragedy” of mounting troop losses and the economic hit from sanctions, as Ukrainians were evacuated from eastern cities before an anticipated major offensive. (read more)
• Further Targeting Russian State-Owned Enterprises, April 7. By US Department of State. The United States and over 30 allies and partners across the world have levied the most impactful, coordinated, and wide-ranging economic restrictions in history in response to the Russian government’s war against Ukraine. (read more)
• Poland Ready to Discontinue All Imports of Russian Energy by End of 2022, April 7. By Mateusz Kubiak, The Jamestown Foundation. On March 29, the Polish government announced that it will unilaterally place an embargo on Russian coal imports within two months (Rzeczpospolita, March 29); and a day later, it declared that Polish refineries will “do whatever they can” to terminate Russian crude supplies by the end of 2022 (PAP, March 30). Also this year, Poland intends to eliminate its traditional dependency on natural gas purchases from Russian Gazprom (see EDM, March 7). Yet despite these ambitious-sounding pledges, the Polish authorities admit that they need other European countries to take similar decisions to ensure that the de-russification of the continent’s energy sector is, indeed, effective and does not simply lead to a loss of Poland’s regional market share in refined petroleum products. (read more)
• Moscow Using Central Asian Migrants to Fight in Ukraine, April 7. By Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Moscow has opened a new front in its effort to find enough soldiers to fight in Ukraine (see EDM, March 16): it is ordering Central Asian immigrants in Russia who have taken Russian citizenship to appear for induction, and it is offering citizenship and high pay to other Central Asians now living in the Russian Federation.  Up to now, this effort does not appear to have involved large numbers of Central Asians—and experts in Central Asia have serious doubts that it ever will. But the fact that Moscow has adopted this tactic highlights the difficulties Russia clearly has finding and deploying enough troops in Ukraine to continue the war in the directions it hopes for. Indeed, as the brutal conflict grinds on, it seems probable that the Russian government will expand its effort to use Central Asians and perhaps others to fill the gaps left by losses in the field, overcome problems associated with using its own draftees, as well as resolve other, perhaps even more serious complications arising from shifting Russian forces from other places to fight in Ukraine (see EDM, March 1, 28, 31; Windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com, April 7). (read more)
• In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part One), April 7. By Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Russian forces invaded southern Ukraine on February 24, 2022, from two convergent directions, Crimea and Donetsk, both already occupied since 2014 (see EDM, April 6). Russia’s second invasion resulted, by mid-March 2022, in the capture of Ukraine’s entire Kherson province, a considerable part of the Zaporyzhzhia province, and the littoral portion of the Donetsk province, cumulatively forming a compact area of occupation along Ukraine’s Azov Sea littoral and extending deep inland (see EDM, March 17). (read more)
• A conversation with founder of the Open Russia movement Mikhail Khodorkovsky, April 7. By Atlantic Council. With unique insight into the realities of Putin’s Russia and its challenges, Khodorkovsky discusses escalating repressions on dissent in Russia, the war, and the future of Russia. (read more)
• How will Russia’s war in Ukraine reshape the European political scene? Look to France, April 7. By Marie Jourdain, Atlantic Council. State-against-state warfare is back on the European continent. Governments—including those once considered neutral or risk-averse—have made decisions that had been unthinkable just weeks before: unprecedented sanctions likely to severely hurt their own economies, drastic increases in defense spending, and the delivery of lethal weapons to a country at war. (read more)
• China caught between a rock and a hard place on Ukraine, April 8. By Xiaoli Guo, East Asia Forum. Since the start of the Russia–Ukraine crisis on 24 February 2022, questions about China’s stance on the conflict have proliferated. So far, China’s preference is clear — to not side with either country. (read more)