COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO
Tensione, paura, riarmo. Questa sembra essere la “triade” perversa che caratterizza il mondo nel quale viviamo. Oltre a una buona dose di mediocrità.
Qui guardiamo alle guerre con approccio complesso. Chi le nega (la guerra è una fiction), chi esagera sul dubbio e sulla precauzione si colloca, secondo noi, sul lato sbagliato della Storia. Il che non significa dover rinunciare alla critica. Le vittime della guerra sono sempre i popoli, quello ucraino guardando all’oggi, ma non solo, sempre guardando all’oggi. Anche laddove è stata stabilita una “pace formale”, la pace vera è lontana.
A proposito di mediocrità, le classi dirigenti attuali sono campioni nell’assenza di visione storica e di capacità di mediazione dei rapporti di forza. Perché ogni guerra porta con sé conseguenze di lungo termine: sul piano alimentare ed energetico (le più gravi), con riferimento all’Ucraina. Ma c’è di più: è venuto il tempo, Papa Francesco docet, di ripensare il sistema internazionale, di fare davvero i conti con la Storia, tutti insieme e a tutte le latitudini. Se qualcuno è colpevole per ciò che sta accadendo al popolo ucraino e alla sovranità di quel Paese, Putin e il suo gruppo di potere, nessuno può dirsi del tutto innocente.
Se la risposta, in giro per il mondo, è la corsa al riarmo (con il pericolo incombente della presenza nucleare), in molti non hanno compreso la lezione (o non la vogliono comprendere). Ogni giorno, camminando nei luoghi della vita popolare, la gente normale non capisce ciò che sta accadendo ma sente un disagio forte che vive le loro vite, un pericolo che sta in una tensione perenne di paura per ciò che potrebbe accadere. Così non si è liberi, neppure in democrazia. Qui c’è la mediocrità di chi governa: non essere in sintonia con l’anima dei popoli, e non è solo questione di rincaro delle bollette. C’è qualcosa di profondo che si sta spezzando, se già non è accaduto: molti sentono ciò che è reale e cioè che questa guerra, che ci colpisce più di altre, accende (o riaccende) pericolose micce in giro per il mondo e mette in pericolo la convivenza stessa nelle democrazie. La libertà non può vivere di paure, la disinformazione non può vincere: la nebbia nella quale siamo avvolti, in democrazie che non fanno auto-critica ma che si riarmano linearmente, ci fa vivere sospesi e disillusi. E questo, per noi che crediamo nella libertà, è un grave pericolo.
(di Marco Emanuele)
TODAY:
- AROUND THE WORLD
- DEFENSE – MILITARY – SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE
- PERSPECTIVES
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD
Africa
- Effective engagement with Africa: Capitalizing on shifts in business, technology, and global partnerships, April 6. By Landry Signé and Chris Heitzig, Brookings. Africa, enabled by rapid technological change and demographic shifts, is primed for a major socioeconomic and structural revolution. This report analyzes the major trends driving this change, along with the opportunities and challenges stemming from it. Africa has the fastest-growing population in the world. In fact, one in four global citizens will be African by 2050. This growing population is projected to become increasingly concentrated in urban areas as Africa continues to experience a rise in the influence of and opportunities in its major cities. This young, growing workforce will be complemented by a rapidly expanding middle class with trillions of dollars in buying power in the coming decades. This report argues that, if harnessed successfully, these trends represent a significant opportunity for African countries and the U.S. to shape a transformation on the continent that ensures prosperity and equitable growth for all. (read more)
Europe
- Speed up EU climate policies to wrest free from Russia, 11 countries say, April 7. By Kate Abnett, Reuters. European Union nations should speed up negotiations on new climate change policies and also increase the ambition of those proposals to quit Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible, 11 countries said on Thursday. (read more)
Meta – Philippines
Meta removes Facebook accounts to tackle misinformation ahead of Philippines polls, April 7. By Reuters. Meta Platforms Inc (FB.O) on Wednesday suspended a network of over 400 accounts, pages and groups ahead of general elections in the Philippines as the Facebook parent moves to crack down hate speech and misinformation. (read more)
Nagorno – Karabakh
- Armenia, Azerbaijan agree Karabakh peace talks, will discuss border, April 7. By Reuters. Armenia and Azerbaijan on Wednesday agreed to peace talks to address tensions over the long-disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which borders both nations, the office of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said. (read more)
Nigeria
- Can protests lead to meaningful changes in government policy, particularly around economic redistribution?, April 6. By Belinda Archibong, Brookings. In May 2020, an African-American man named George Floyd was killed after a white police officer knelt on his neck for multiple minutes during a routine arrest. The brutality of the event and others like it ignited a series of protests against racism and police brutality, and calls for distributive justice under the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. (read more)
Pakistan
- Pakistan’s top court likely to rule on Khan’s bid to block ouster, April 7. By Asif Shahzad and Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, Reuters. Pakistan’s top court hopes to wrap up on Thursday a hearing on Prime Minister Imran Khan’s obstruction of an opposition bid to oust him, a manoeuvre his critics say was unconstitutional and has led to political turmoil in the nuclear-armed country. (read more)
Romania
- IAEA sees Romanian commitment to safe radwaste management : Waste & Recycling, April 6. By World Nuclear News. Romania is committed to the safe and sustainable management of radioactive waste, a team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has concluded. It noted opportunities for improving implementation including preparations for further disposal facilities for radioactive waste from nuclear fuel cycle activities. (read more)
USA
- Tennessee site selected for advanced reactor fuel facility : Uranium & Fuel, April 6. By World Nuclear News. A site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee has been selected as the site for the USA’s first commercial high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)-based fuel fabrication facility. Construction of the TRISO-X Fuel Fabrication Facility, or TF3, is to begin this year, with commissioning and start-up as soon as 2025. (read more)
- US steel giant invests in NuScale : Corporate, April 6. By World Nuclear News. Nucor Corporation has committed to a USD15 million private investment in public equity (PIPE) in small modular reactor (SMR) developer NuScale Power. The investment increases total committed PIPE investment to USD236 million. (read more)
- Seizing the water infrastructure moment nationally and locally, April 6. By Joseph W. Kane and Andy Kricun, Brookings. Aging and undersized sewers, contaminated drinking water, and lead-tainted pipes imperil millions of households and communities nationally. At the same time, more severe flooding and drought conditions have exacerbated the nation’s water infrastructure deficit. Decades of inaction and underinvestment—particularly at a federal level—have multiplied these and other water infrastructure challenges, but the recently passed Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) holds promise to address them via an infusion of more than $57 billion to states and localities over the next five years. Extra federal funding will not only accelerate necessary system upgrades (think fewer leaking pipes and burst water mains) and reduce the total rate burden, but will also provide much-needed support for new plans and programs into the future.(read more)
Yemen
- Saudi gives Yemen money, urges peace talks after Yemen presidential council announced, April 7. By Reuters. (read more)
- Yemen president cedes powers to council as Saudi Arabia pushes to end war, April 7. By Mohamed Ghobari and Ahmed Tolba, Reuters. Yemen’s president dismissed his controversial deputy on Thursday and delegated his own powers to a presidential council in a move backed by Saudi Arabia, removing some obstacles to U.N.-led efforts to revive negotiations to end the seven-year war. (read more)
- Yemen: Peace at last?, April 6. By Bruce Riedel, Brookings. The United Nations-brokered cease-fire in Yemen appears to be holding, pausing for now seven years of war. The truce reflects the balance of power on the ground: The Zaydi Shia Houthi rebels control Sanaa and most of northern Yemen; they are on balance the victors. The rest of the country is divided into ministates. Iran has secured a foothold on the Arabian Peninsula. (read more)
DEFENSE – MILITARY – SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE
- NATO unveils tech accelerator footprint, with plans for over 60 sites, April 6. By ATO is set to establish a new trans-Atlantic initiative meant to speed up the development of critical technologies, with one Euro-centric headquarters stationed in London and more than 60 partner sites around its alliance. Last summer at the 31st annual NATO Summit in Brussels, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced plans to establish the Defence Innovation Accelerator of the North Atlantic, or DIANA, based on the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. (read more)
PERSPECTIVES
- How public health policies protected women-owned businesses during the pandemic, April 6. By Addisu Lashitew, Addis Birhanu, and Yamlaksira Getachew, Brookings. Unprecedented as the COVID-19 crisis has been, it is not so unusual in two important ways. First, the pandemic disproportionately affected minorities and small businesses and exacerbated existing income and wealth inequalities. Second, the scope and quality of public policy responses exhibited large differences across countries. The policies of the United States under President Donald Trump, who downplayed the health risks, stand in sharp contrast to China’s harsh containment measures, epitomizing the vast global divergence in public policy response to the pandemic. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- More Javelins for Ukraine amid questions about US supplies, April 6. By Joe Gould, Defense News. The U.S. has approved another $100 million in Javelin anti-tank weapons and training for Ukraine from U.S. military stocks, for a total of $1.7 billion in U.S. aid committed since Russia’s invasion. “I have authorized, pursuant to a delegation from the President earlier today, the immediate drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $100 million to meet Ukraine’s urgent need for additional anti-armor systems,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Tuesday. (read more)
- Ukraine National Guard take control of Chernobyl security : Regulation & Safety, April 6. By World Nuclear News. Following the departure of the Russian forces, the site and its surroundings are being checked for safety, and the radiation situation assessed, Ukraine says. (read more)
- Update 44 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine, April 6. By IAEA. (read more)
- Divining Belarus’s Future Amidst International and Domestic Unrest, April 6. By Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. How long will Belarus remain a pariah in the eyes of its neighbors? According to Yury Drakakhrust of Radio Liberty, this depends on whether the Belarusian army enters the Russo-Ukrainian war and, above all, on that conflict’s outcome. If Russia emerges weakened from this war, then even without change at the helm of power in Minsk, a prompt resumption of Belarusian ties with the West cannot be excluded. Attempts by the Belarusian government to disown the war were largely impossible at its start and remain equally unrealistic today, Drakakhrust underscores: doing so now would result in Russian paratroopers swiftly arriving to occupy President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s residence. Drakakhrust does not believe Ukraine’s recent request to completely seal off the Polish-Belarusian border to prevent the inflow of Western goods to Russia is realistic either, as the border in question is not just Poland’s but the European Union’s at large (Gazeta.by, March 31). (read more)
- Ukrainian Experts: Russian Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons a Real Possibility, April 6. By Kseniya Kirillova, The Jamestown Foundation. Following the March 29 round of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations, held in Istanbul, a cautious optimism crept into the rhetoric of the Russian delegation. However, this was swiftly followed by harshly negative criticism in the Russian media that negotiations are happening at all. That sharp public rebuke, combined with revelations of Russian war crimes in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha (BBC News—Russian service, April 3), raised new doubts about whether any peaceful resolution to the conflict is possible at the moment. Given this, some Ukrainian experts fear that the risk of a Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine is increasing. (read more)
- Crimea’s Role as Russian Bastion for the Ongoing War in Ukraine, April 6. By Andrii Ryzhenko, The Jamestown Foundation. In September 2016, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, announced the creation of an anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) zone over the Black Sea, centered on occupied Crimea (TASS, September 13, 2016). This A2/AD bubble, which has come to be known as the “Crimean Bastion,” is based upon the principle of forming a “fortress of the fleet” using an echeloned approach. As such, it offers immense power-projection capabilities for Russian forces that are now being employed against Ukraine in the ongoing Russian invasion. (read more)
- U.N. to vote on suspending Russia from Human Rights Council over Ukraine, April 7. By Michelle Nichols, Reuters. The United Nations General Assembly will vote on Thursday on a U.S. push to suspend Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council over reports of “gross and systematic violations and abuses of human rights” by invading Russian troops in Ukraine. (read more)
- Analysis: China’s balancing act over Ukraine offers Washington a subtle ‘win’, April 7. By Michael Martina and Michelle Nichols, Reuters. China’s abstentions on U.N. votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are a “win”, said the U.S. envoy to the United Nations, underscoring how Beijing’s balancing act between its ally Russia and the West may be the best outcome for Washington. (read more)
- Ukraine seeks ‘ruinous’ sanctions on Russia as Europe hesitates, April 7. By Natalia Zinets, Reuters. Ukraine wants sanctions that are economically destructive enough for Russia to end its war after accusing some countries of still prioritising money over punishment for civilian killings that the West condemns as war crimes. (read more)
- The American people’s message to President Biden about Ukraine—get tougher but don’t risk war with Russia (follow-up), April 6. By William A. Galston, Brookings. Since April 1, two new surveys have come to my attention that focus on Americans’ opinion on Ukraine Policy. While they largely confirm the account of public attitudes that I had previously summarized, they add some important nuance. (read more)
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6. By Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko, ISW. Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances. Russian forces completed their withdrawal from Sumy Oblast, and Russian forces previously withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine continued to redeploy to Belgorod, Russia, for further deployment to Izyum or Donbas. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia plans to deploy elements from the Kyiv axis to Izyum, but these units will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time. (read more)
