Open newsletter – April 12, 2022 a.m.

TODAY:

• AROUND THE WORLD
• RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
• TECH – DEFENSE – MILITARY  SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE

AROUND THE WORLD

Central African Republic

• Central African Republic: War Crimes Court’s First Trial, April 12. The opening of the first trial at the Central African Republic’s Special Criminal Court (SCC) on April 19, 2022 represents significant progress in the difficult effort to see justice for grave crimes committed in the country, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch issued a question-and-answer document ahead of the SCC’s trial. (read more)

Chile

• Chile announces unprecedented water rationing plan as drought enters 13th year, April 12. By Reuters. As a punishing, record-breaking drought enters its 13th year, Chile on Monday announced an unprecedented plan to ration water for the capital of Santiago, a city of nearly 6 million. (read more)

China

• Linglong One reactor pit installed at Changjiang : New Nuclear, April 11. By World Nuclear News. The steel reactor pit has been installed for the ACP100 multi-purpose small modular reactor (SMR) demonstration project at the Changjiang nuclear power plant on China’s island province of Hainan. (read more)

Iran 

• Darkhovin plant on Iran’s agenda : Nuclear Policies, April 11. By World Nuclear News. Iran is “seriously” pursuing the construction of a nuclear power plant at Darkhovin, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) said at the country’s national nuclear technology day on 9 April. Iranian President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi said the country will continue to pursue peaceful nuclear activities. (read more)

Israel – Palestine

• Israeli forces kill Palestinian after alleged attempted stabbing, April 12. By Al Jazeera. (read more)

Taiwan

• Taiwan issues first war survival handbook amid China threat, April 12. By Reuters. Taiwan’s military released a handbook on civil defence for the first time on Tuesday, giving citizens survival guidance in a war scenario as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine focuses attention on how the island should respond to China’s pressure. (read more)

USA – China

• Hicks: Today’s Russia Problem Mustn’t Distract from Tomorrow’s China Problem, April 11. By Patrick Tucker, Nextgov. As terrible as Russia’s war in Ukraine is, it pales in comparison to a potential fight against China, the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said. The Ukrainian conflict “is not the degree of difficulty that we are looking at in terms of what we need to have to fight in the future,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told reporters traveling with her to visit startups and technology partners in California this week. “You even see the Ukrainians asking for more and more advanced systems themselves. But, the [United States], we’re very focused on how to make sure we have a really combat credible capability,” to deter China. (read more)

USA – India

• Biden to Modi: Buying more Russian oil is not in India’s interest, April 12. By Steve Holland and Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters. President Joe Biden told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that buying more oil from Russia was not in India’s interest and could hamper the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said. (read more)
• Biden Asks India to ‘Do More’ to Stop Russia and Help Ukraine, April 11. By Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. President Joe Biden urged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to “do more” to support Ukraine and slow down the import of Russian energy in a virtual meeting of the two leaders on Monday, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. (read more)
• Fourth Annual U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, April 11. By US Department of State. The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and India on the occasion of the Fourth Annual U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in 2022. (read more)
• Secretary Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar, and Indian Minister of Defense Rajnath Singh At a Joint Press Availability, April 11. By US Department of State. (read more)
• Despite Russia tensions, U.S. and India deepen defense ties, April 12. By  Joe Gould, Defense News. Eyeing China, U.S. and India committed to deeper defense ties in space and cyberspace as well as an expansion of their joint military exercises, officials from both countries announced Monday. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Washington with their Indian counterparts — Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar — amid rising tensions between the allies over India’s muted criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (read more)

USA – Indo Pacific

• Regional Perspectives on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, April 11. The proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is the Biden administration’s answer to questions about the United States’ economic commitment to the vital Indo-Pacific region. For this initiative to succeed, it must address concerns among regional partners about the framework’s form, function, benefits, inclusivity, and durability. Based on conversations with representatives from over a dozen regional governments, this brief summarizes Indo-Pacific perspectives on the IPEF. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

• Aleksandr Dvornikov: New Russian general to oversee Ukraine war, April 12. By Mansur Mirovalev, Al Jazeera. (read more)
• Russia-backed Indian refiner struggling for trade credit: Report, April 12. By Al Jazeera. (read more)
• UK says ‘all options are on the table’ if Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine, April 12. By Reuters. (read more)
• Evaluating the Russia Sanctions, April 11. By William Reinsch, CSIS. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, massive sanctions were imposed, and more have continued to arrive as the war has continued. Now, some six weeks later, we can draw some conclusions about the sanctions imposed by the United States and its friends and allies. (read more)
• Second staff rotation at Chernobyl : Regulation & Safety, April 11. By World Nuclear News. The first staff rotation at Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear power plant in three weeks and only the second since late February when Russian forces seized the site has been carried out. The workers were transported by boat as the plant remains inaccessible by road. (read more)
• Anonymous hacked Russia’s Ministry of Culture and leaked 446 GBS, April 11. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Data leak service DDoSecrets has published over 700 GB of data allegedly stolen from the Russian government, including over 500,000 emails. (read more)
• The conflict with Ukraine, April 11. By Levada Center. 64% of Russians closely monitor the situation around Ukraine. 81% of respondents support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. The dominant feelings among Russians caused by military actions in Ukraine are “pride for Russia” (51%), “anxiety, fear, horror” (31%), “shock” (12%). (read more)
• Approval of institutions, ratings of parties and politicians, April 11. By Levada Center. In March, the approval of the main state institutions increased significantly: 83% approve of the activities of the president, 71% approve of the Prime Minister, 70% approve of the government, 59% approve of the State Duma. The share of those who believe that things are going in the right direction in the country has sharply increased. The rating of United Russia reached 54% (of those who decided on the choice), the indicators of other parties have not changed significantly. (read more)
• Notorious Russian General Told to Revive Flagging War, April 11. By Mark Voyger, CEPA. Dvornikov, currently commander of the Southern Military District, has been promoted to become operational overlord of Russia’s war-battered and demoralized forces in Ukraine. What follows will not be nice, and suggests the Kremlin has given the green light to the ruinously destructive and ruthless tactics the general developed in Syria. (read more)
• Ukraine’s Suffering Stokes Guilt & Eventually Action, April 11. By Edward Lucas, CEPA. The consensus was stifling. This war is none of the West’s business. The causes are complicated. These fierce, strange people in hard-to-understand places have been fighting each other for centuries. In time, they will stop. Meanwhile, stand clear. Intervention would be hugely costly and probably make matters worse.  (read more)
• The False God of Tsar Vladimir Putin, April 11. By Walter Clemens, CEPA. The notion with “God is with us,” Gott mit uns, has been part of Vladimir Putin’s Russian nationalist revival, a boast that is sacrilegious and untrue. (read more)
• López Obrador’s flirtation with Russia risks worsening US-Mexican relations, April 11. By Arturo Sarukhan, Brookings. Since the early days of Russia’s premeditated and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, Mexico has been raising eyebrows and opening question marks in Washington as well as in the capitals of other nations determined to push back on Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression. (read more)
• The Economic Aspect of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Implications, Complications (Part One), April 11. By Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, which commenced on February 24 (Kremlin.ru, February 24), pushed the world’s largest advanced economies to introduce several rounds of increasing economic sanctions against the Russian Federation (Meduza, March 8). While the initial impact of those punitive measures seemed catastrophic (Kommersant, March 31), the Russian economy has slowly begun adjusting, according to Moscow (RIA Novosti, March 31; Meduza, February 28). The degree to which reality diverges from pro-Kremlin propaganda requires a close analysis of the impact and potential consequences of the Western economic sanctions on four key pillars of the Russian economy: 1) the natural resources sector, 2) heavy industry (for civilian end users, 3) agriculture and fertilizer production, as well as 4) the defense sector and Russia’s domestic military-industrial complex. (read more)
• EW Hype? The Reasons Behind the Limited Effectiveness of Russia’s Electronic Warfare in Ukraine, April 11. By Yuri Lapaiev, The Jamestown Foundation. At the beginning of April, the hampered and decimated Russian forces that had been trying to conquer the Ukrainian capital retreated from the Kyiv region to resupply and regroup. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), a new potential direction of attack could be the Kharkiv region, in order to encircle the large group of AFU units in Donbas. To support this assault, the Russian forces may employ one of their newest electronic warfare (EW) systems—the Silok-M1—in order to try to counter Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) (Defense Express, April 3). This Russian EW complex was specifically developed to detect enemy drones, calculate their flight coordinates, and suppress their remote-control channel in automatic mode at a distance of three to four kilometers. Yet even if the Silok-M1 functions as advertised, it would be of only limited effectiveness against not only Ukraine’s famed high-altitude Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat drones (see EDM, March 16) but even against smaller reconnaissance UAVs. (read more)
• Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable, April 11. By Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would disintegrate, the follow-up proposition for laying siege to Kyiv presumed that the government would capitulate, while the order to execute a breakthrough toward Odesa mistakenly took for granted that Ukraine’s most important seaport had been left undefended. (read more)
• Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive as Moscow dismisses rape allegations, April 12. By Maria Starkova, Reuters. (read more)
• After Losses, Russia Regroups for the Donbas and Names ‘Butcher of Syria’ Head of Ukraine Ops, By Tara Copp, Defense One. Forty-seven days into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is regrouping for another battle for the Donbas—and has named a Russian general known for his brutality as head of operations in Ukraine.  (read more)
• Western nations adapt their Ukraine help as war enters new phase, April 11. By Joe Gould, Defense News. The U.S. and its allies are preparing to send heavier weapons to Ukraine in anticipation of Russia focusing its efforts on the eastern part of the country. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson paid a surprise visit to Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Saturday, where he pledged 120 armored vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems. This came a day after he promised to send an additional £100 million (U.S. $130 million) of high-grade military equipment to Ukraine, saying Britain wants to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression. (read more)
• Slovakia could sell howitzers to Ukraine and repair its tanks, vehicles, April 11. By Jaroslaw Adamowski,  Defense News. Shortly after Slovakia supplied an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia’s invasion, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Naď has announced his country is in talks with the Ukrainian government over a potential sale of Zuzana 155 mm self-propelled howitzers. (read more)

TECH – DEFENSE – MILITARY  SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE

• FFDroider, a new information-stealing malware disguised as Telegram app, April 11. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Cybersecurity researchers from Zscaler ThreatLabz warn of a new information-stealing malware, named FFDroider, that disguises itself as the popular instant messaging app Telegram. The malware was derived to siphon redentials and cookies from infected machines. (read more)
• SuperCare Health discloses a data breach that Impacted +300K people, April 11. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. SuperCare Health disclosed a security breach that has led to the exposure of personal information belonging to its patients, patients/members of its partner organizations and others. (read more)
• U.S. aircraft carrier deploys off Korean peninsula amid tensions with North – official, April 12. By Reuters. The USS Abraham Lincoln strike group is operating in waters off the Korean peninsula, a U.S. official said, after South Korean media reported that the ships were deployed amid tensions over North Korea’s missile tests. (read more)
• Army Wants Software to Predict Hypersonics’ Weather-Based Survivability for Joint Military Tests, April 11. By Brandi Vincent, Nextgov. As they work with other military units to jointly make and field advanced weapon systems, officials in the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office rely on Weather Analysis and Survivability Prediction software to inform launch decisions based on real-time meteorological conditions. (read more)
• NORTHCOM wants millions more for AI and data handling, April 11. By Colin Demarest, Defense News. U.S. Northern Command has asked Congress for an additional $29.8 million to buy information technology equipment and to optimize infrastructure for artificial intelligence and machine learning at its joint operations center with the North American Aerospace Defense Command. The upgrades would buttress efforts to ingest, process and aggregate data across the Department of Defense’s cloud-computing environment and share intel with forces across all domains, also known as the “information dominance enabling capability,” according to a fiscal year 2023 unfunded priority list obtained by Defense News. (read more)
• Army’s $5.1B wish list to Congress would ramp up modernization, infrastructure efforts, April 11. By Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army has sent a one-page wish list to Congress seeking another $5.1 billion beyond its fiscal 2023 budget request to ramp up modernization efforts and more quickly improve its infrastructure. The wish list — also called an unfunded requirements list — was obtained by Defense News. The list is traditionally sent to Congress after the budget is released, giving lawmakers an idea of what the service would have bought if given more money. (read more)
• China delivers anti-aircraft missiles to Serbia, April 11. By Mike Yeo, Defense News. China has delivered anti-aircraft missile systems to Serbia as part of a contract the European nation signed with China that also included drones. Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters Monday the delivery was part of the two countries’ annual cooperation plan, does not target any third parties and “has nothing to do with the current situation.”. (read more)
• For America’s security aid programs, who will run the show?, April 11. By  Joe Gould, Defense News. With the world transfixed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and debates breaking out on Twitter over whether the U.S. should send the country fighter aircraft and missile defense systems, security assistance ― usually a wonky topic ― is having a moment. But it’s not just about public attention. With Democrats holding the reins in Washington, State Department officials have recommended a list of reforms to America’s globe-spanning security aid programs. (read more)