Israel and Iran: A War with No Off-Ramp (Dalia Dassa Kaye – Just Security)

After several days of an intensifying Israel-Iran war, the death toll and destruction is mounting. Hundreds of Israeli strikes across Iran, beginning with a surprise attack on June 13, are targeting not just Iran’s nuclear sites and scientists but also its military leadership and critical energy and communications infrastructure, including state television facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements urging the Iranian people to stand up to the “evil and repressive regime,” as well as its expanding range of targets, suggest that Israel’s military campaign may be aiming to destabilize the country and facilitate the collapse of the regime as much as to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Iran has failed to effectively deter or defend itself against these massive attacks that have shown Israeli intelligence capable of penetrating deep inside the country. But Tehran has nonetheless managed to launch a series of direct and deadly missile attacks on central and northern Israel. Various reports suggest Iran is eager to return to the negotiating table and that President Donald Trump is seeking a meeting between his Iran envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but the Iranians are sending mixed messages about their willingness to return to negotiations as long as the Israeli attacks continue. Meanwhile, there are growing calls from Israeli officials and some of Trump’s closest political allies for the U.S. military to join the fight. Trump signed the G-7 summit statement calling for de-escalation after initial resistance, but left the summit early, with his own statements that also sent mixed signals about future U.S. military involvement. For many years both Iran and Israel had reasons to avoid a direct war of this nature, and many in the region and globally sought to prevent it. But those days are over. The war is here, and it is not clear if there is anyone willing or able to stop it.

Israel and Iran: A War with No Off-Ramp

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