Snapback Sanctions: Iran continued meeting with European officials and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) triggered the snapback process, but Iranian officials show no indication that they will concede to E3 demands regarding the Iranian nuclear program.
Hezbollah Disarmament: The Lebanese Council of Ministers approved a plan on September 5 under which the Lebanese military will attempt to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah will likely try to subvert the LAF’s campaign to disarm Hezbollah over the fifteen-month implementation period to enable Hezbollah’s reconstitution efforts and prevent the group’s disarmament. Hezbollah will reconstitute slowly unless its reconstitution is interfered with. Each day Hezbollah is not disarmed is a day it will become more capable of resisting and ultimately defeating the government’s disarmament effort.
Economic Support for Lebanon: The United States and other foreign countries are reportedly offering economic incentives to the Lebanese government for moving forward with its plan to disarm Hezbollah. These economic incentives would undermine Hezbollah’s ability to build support among the Lebanese population by enabling the government to provide services that Hezbollah previously provided.
Iran Update, September 5, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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