Iranian Succession Planning: Senior Iranian officials appear to be preparing for potential military conflict. Iranian officials continue to believe that the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran will collapse and fighting will resume at some point in the future. Senior Iranian military commanders also continue to inspect military and air defense units across Iran.
Iranian Water and Energy Crisis: Iran’s worsening water and energy crisis could gradually increase the Iranian public’s frustrations with the regime and compound existing challenges to regime legitimacy. The Karaj Dam’s water reserves decreased from 111 million cubic meters to 28 million cubic meters between September 2024 and September 2025, making the dam incapable of generating electricity for Tehran.
Iraqi Airspace Superiority: Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al Araji said on September 30 that Iraq would take “all necessary measures” to prevent Israel from using Iraqi airspace to attack Iran, during a meeting with Iranian Armed Forces Intelligence head Brigadier General Sayyed Majid Mirahmadi in Baghdad. Iranian-backed Iraqi politicians and militia figures have long called on the Iraqi federal government to adopt policies that would restrict the United States and Israel’s ability to fly through Iraqi airspace.
Iran Update, September 30, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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