Iranian Command-and-Control: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf–a retired military officer but still currently a senior civilian–reportedly took the unprecedented step of assuming an unspecified but very senior military command during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025 after the deaths of many top commanders. Ghalibaf’s assumption of command as a civilian due to command losses demonstrates that Israel caused significant disruption to Iranian command and control.
Israeli Operations in Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on October 19 that Israeli forces began to conduct a five-day, division-level military exercise along the Israel-Lebanon border to prepare for “different scenarios.” Hezbollah has reportedly decided that it will directly respond to any Israeli ground operations and is expecting an imminent Israeli escalation.
Hezbollah Disarmament: Hezbollah may have deterred the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) from disarming the group. Hezbollah’s threats may have exacerbated Lebanese government officials’ and security forces’ concerns about internal conflict. The Lebanese government has made progress on several other elements of the US proposal, but has undertaken only tepid steps to disarm Hezbollah.
Iran Update, October 23, 2025 (Institute for the Study of War)
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