(Institute for the Study of War)
Iranian Regime Stability: The Iranian regime’s ongoing crackdown is exacerbating the economic collapse that spurred the Winter 2026 protests. The crackdown will therefore fail to address the underlying causes of the protests and could create more grievances that drive future protests. The regime’s decision to persist with its crackdown indicates that the regime continues to fear protests and understands that protests only temporarily stopped due to the widespread securitization and fear caused by the regime’s extreme violence.
Government-SDF Conflict: Pro-government Syrian media reported that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian government reached a new “understanding” on January 27 to deploy Interior Ministry forces to Hasakah Province, which would be a tangible step towards the civil integration of the province into the Syrian state. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the SDF’s leadership may fracture over a decision to agree to Shara’s terms for the SDF to integrate into the Syrian state, which would risk instigating serious conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters.
Political Subversion of the SDF: The Syrian government is currently politically undermining hardline SDF and YPG positions by introducing limited Kurdish rights and conducting outreach to Kurdish notables, which is likely designed to politically subvert the SDF and YPG to prevent future military resistance. Shara has used similar strategies of political subversion to prevent possible adversaries from resisting him militarily. Shara outreach to Kurdish notables from northern Syria also likely aims prevent or mitigate widespread resistance by the SDF and YPG against government forces.
Syrian IDP Camp Security: The Syrian government is experiencing some initial challenges in managing al Hol internally displaced persons camp (IDP), partially due to undisciplined and ineffective Defense Ministry units and insufficient training to control the camp. These challenges can be remedied in time, and the Syrian government appears to be learning from some mistakes and correcting its procedures accordingly. The chaotic and uncoordinated nature of the Syrian government takeover of northeastern Syria, coupled with the SDF collapse, has almost certainly forced the Interior Ministry to relearn lessons about guarding these facilities that the United States and its SDF partners have previously learned.
