Syrian Government Offensive in Northeastern Syria: Syrian President Ahmed al Shara likely decided to temporarily halt the Syrian government offensive on Syrian Democratic Forces-held (SDF) territory in northeastern Syria after a phone call with US President Donald Trump on January 19. Shara and Trump discussed the “protection of the Kurdish people.” Shara later provided a major concession to Abdi in a “mutual understanding” on January 20 by granting Abdi four days to consult with SDF leaders and secure their agreement to Shara’s terms, which include the SDF’s integration into the Syrian state and the handover of Hasakah Province to the state. The four-day pause provides Abdi an opportunity to prepare defenses if he cannot secure agreement within the SDF to accept the deal.
Status of ISIS Detention Facilities and IDP Camps: A four-day ceasefire that slows the government’s takeover of Hasakah Province may enable the Syrian government and SDF to organize a more orderly transition of control over Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) detention facilities and camps holding ISIS supporters, which have been subject to uncoordinated and dangerous handovers. The MoD backfilled the SDF on January 20 at the al Hol IDP camp—the largest in Syria, with 10,000 Syrians and 6,000 third-country nationals, many of whom are ISIS supporters.
Internal SDF Decision-Making: Some hardline elements within the SDF’s leadership may pressure Abdi to reject Shara’s terms for the SDF’s integration. Abdi will “consult” with other SDF leaders on a “detailed plan” for the integration of the SDF and its remaining territory into the Syrian state over the next four days. Some YPG or hardline SDF elements could resume attacks against the government or launch a Kurdish insurgency even if Abdi formally accepts Shara’s terms.
Iranian Regime Crackdown: The Iranian regime has expanded its crackdown beyond protesters by targeting merchants and businesses that supported the protests, which risks exacerbating tensions between the regime and a part of the Iranian population that the regime has long relied on for support.
Iranian Threats to US Forces: The Iranian regime has threatened to attack US strategic assets in the Middle East if the United States strikes Iran, very likely to try to deter any US action against the regime.
US Military Presence in Iraq: US-led international coalition forces completed their planned withdrawal from Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, on January 17, which marked the end of the first phase of the US withdrawal from Iraq.
Iran Update, January 20, 2026 (Institute for the Study of War)
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