Turkish Pressure Campaign: Syrian security sources told Emirati media on August 16 that the Syrian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is preparing a three-pronged offensive to seize Raqqa and Deir ez Zor provinces. This report and others appear to be an effort by Turkey and some elements of the Syrian transitional government to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to surrender.
US Withdrawal from Iraq: An adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani announced on August 17 that US forces will withdraw from Ain al Asad Airbase and Baghdad International Airport in September 2025. A spokesperson for the US Embassy in Baghdad separately told Iraqi media on August 18 that the US-led international coalition’s mission in Iraq will transition to a “more traditional bilateral security partnership.”
Hezbollah Disarmament: Senior Lebanese officials called on the United States to pressure Israel and Syria to agree to the US proposal to disarm Hezbollah during US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack’s visit to Beirut on August 18. Israel has maintained that it will continue to operate in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed.
Iran Update, August 18, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
