Crediamo nel negoziato e nel dialogo. Questo è ciò di cui il mondo ha bisogno.
L’abitudine consolidata alla separazione è un male per tutti. Se volessimo tracciare una linea, con tutte le cautele del caso, potremmo dire di dover lavorare per un mondo sostenibile dal punto di vista politico-strategico e dall’assetto multi-bi-laterale.
I rapporti tra Washington e Pechino, a piccoli passi in dialogo, rappresentano un paradigma decisivo con il quale guardare al futuro (già presente) del mondo. Se le medie potenze hanno e avranno un ruolo di grande importanza, è nel grande confronto-dialogo tra i due colossi che si decidono e si decideranno molti giochi.
La Cina non è solo uno Stato ma è un’entità complessa e non può essere ridotta al rango di nemico. Il nostro approccio verso Pechino non può che essere complesso e aperto, profondamente realistico. Noi crediamo che occorra sostenere culturalmente la relazione tra le due principali potenze globali: se la geopolitica non deve superare le reciproche ‘linee rosse’, la ‘cooperazione competitiva’ tra USA e Cina può ritrovare nuova linfa e concentrarsi sui grandi temi che riguardano la storia globale, del pianeta e dell’umanità.
Aggiungiamo a questa considerazione il dato che che, come nota efficacemente Carl Bildt in una riflessione pubblicata da The Strategist, la Cina è centrale dal punto di vista del commercio mondiale. Scrive Bildt: The difference between China’s and America’s trade trajectories is already striking. Of the world’s 193 countries, only 20 count the US—still the world’s largest economy—as their number-one trading partner. This list includes Canada, Mexico and many small Caribbean and Central American economies, but not a single Asian or African country. By contrast, China is now the EU’s largest trading partner, and the rest of the world is increasingly divided between these two trading powers. In addition to dominating much of the Pacific region, China is very important in Africa and is making significant inroads in Latin America. Strikingly, there are now more than 100 countries that trade twice as much with China as they do with the US.
Qualunque sia il giudizio di valore che diamo alla politica cinese, il Dragone resta centrale nella grande riconfigurazione in atto dei rapporti di potere. Non si può guardare a esso con l’atteggiamento ideologico di chi lo vorrebbe come siamo noi, di chi si limita a confrontarsi muscolarmente. Il che non significa, naturalmente, che il sistema cinese non conosca lati oscuri e contraddizioni.
A ben guardare, il nostro discorso considera USA e Cina guardando oltre ed è chiaro come quel rapporto non possa essere guardato con la lente deformata, e deformante, dello scontro tra democrazie e autocrazie. Questo è troppo facile, e troppo lineare, in un mondo dalla crescente complessità.
English version
We believe in negotiation and dialogue. This is what the world needs.
The established habit of separation is bad for everyone. If we wanted to draw a line, with all due caution, we could say that we have to work towards a politically-strategically sustainable world with a multi-bi-lateral structure.
The relationship between Washington and Beijing, with small steps in dialogue, represents a decisive paradigm with which to look at the (already present) future of the world. If the medium powers have and will have a role of great importance, it is in the great confrontation-dialogue between the two giants that many games are and will be decided.
China is not just a state but a complex entity and cannot be reduced to the rank of enemy. Our approach towards Beijing can only be complex and open, deeply realistic. We believe that the relationship between the two major global powers must be culturally sustained: if geopolitics is not to cross mutual ‘red lines’, the ‘competitive cooperation’ between the US and China can find new life and focus on the great issues that concern global history, the planet and humanity.
Add to this the fact that, as Carl Bildt effectively notes in a reflection published by The Strategist, China is central to world trade. Bildt writes: The difference between China’s and America’s trade trajectories is already striking. Of the world’s 193 countries, only 20 count the US-still the world’s largest economy-as their number-one trading partner. This list includes Canada, Mexico and many small Caribbean and Central American economies, but not a single Asian or African country. By contrast, China is now the EU’s largest trading partner, and the rest of the world is increasingly divided between these two trading powers. In addition to dominating much of the Pacific region, China is very important in Africa and is making significant inroads in Latin America. Strikingly, there are now more than 100 countries that trade twice as much with China as they do with the US.
Whatever value judgement we place on Chinese politics, the Dragon remains central to the great ongoing reconfiguration of power relations. We cannot look at it with the ideological attitude of those who would like it to be as we are, of those who merely confront it muscularly. Which is not to say, of course, that the Chinese system does not have its dark sides and contradictions.
On closer inspection, our discourse considers the US and China looking beyond, and it is clear how that relationship cannot be looked at through the deformed lens of the clash between democracies and autocracies. This is too easy, and too linear, in a world of increasing complexity.
