Last week came some predictable news: Venezuela’s oil exports remained steady in May, even after US President Donald Trump’s administration reapplied sanctions on President Nicolas Maduro’s government. Evidently shipments to China have staved off the worse effects for now. Energy hungry China will always be willing to open its market to illicit crude – even in the face of Trump’s 24 March threat to apply ‘secondary tariffs’ of 25 per cent on US imports from countries that buy Venezuelan oil. It was never clear how that additional measure would be applied on top of Trump’s existing sanctions regime – fluctuating almost weekly – on the Chinese economy. Even without China’s help, the sanctions ‘snap back’ at the end of May – requiring the last US oil producer, Chevron, to shut down oil production in Venezuela – was likely doomed anyway. Forthcoming Chatham House research indicates that sanctions seeking to bring about democratic and human rights improvements in autocratic regimes often fail.
History suggests Trump’s snapped back sanctions won’t deliver change in Venezuela (Christopher Sabatini – Chatham House)
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