LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
AUKUS
(Nick Childs – IISS) The AUKUS partners point to real progress in the past year but many of the challenges in delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia and co-developing a range of advanced defence technologies look as great as ever.
The AUKUS balancing act is not getting easier (iiss.org)
Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Australia should establish a separate budget allocation for special defence industry grants to build up companies in the north in support of the armed forces.
Northern defence industry needs targeted grants | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Azerbaijan – Slovakia
(Fuad Shahbazov – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan and Slovakia recently signed an agreement on defense cooperation that opens the door to joint defense production, with Slovakia set to produce weaponry funded by Baku. Slovakia’s expansion of its strategic partnership with Azerbaijan takes on a significant geopolitical dimension, potentially reshaping the dynamics of EU-NATO relationships and the balance of power in the region. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine presented Azerbaijan with an opportunity to expand its energy trade with Europe and to build individual strategic partnerships with EU and non-EU members.
Azerbaijan and Slovakia Expand Strategic Partnership – Jamestown
Cambodia – Vietnam
(Juki Trinh – Lowy The Interpreter) In August 2023, Cambodia sent an official notice to the Mekong River Commission flagging the construction of a new major canal project on the Mekong River. The Mekong, long a source of regional bounty, has become a modern point of contention for the countries along the waterway, with disputes over the environmental and economic cost to the river flow from the growing number of upstream dam and canal projects.
Water woes: Cambodia and Vietnam clash over the Funan Techo Canal | Lowy Institute
China – USA
(East Asia Forum) The United States Trade Representative‘s annual report claims China is causing damage to global industries through massive domestic subsidies, a statement China challenges in the World Trade Organization given the large subsidies the United States has provided under the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. As countries around the world, including Australia and Japan, follow suit and offer substantial industrial subsidies, a race to the bottom risks damaging consequences for global productivity and growth.
The China-US clean energy subsidy race | East Asia Forum
European Union
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) In a mammoth election year with almost half of the world’s population heading to the polls, the supranational European Union (EU) is also gearing for elections. While the Indian election holds the spot as the world’s largest in terms of sheer scale, the European elections—with voting taking place transnationally across 27 nations to elect 720 Members of European Parliament (MEPs)—have no global parallel. The European Parliament is the main direct link between the EU’s institutions and its citizens.
European Elections 2024: Policies, Partners, and Predicaments (orfonline.org)
European Union – Russia
(Irene Sánchez, Giorgos Verdi – European Council on Foreign Relations) In the lead up to the European Parliament election, rising Russian disinformation threatens to sway voters. No matter the election result, the EU should take coordinated and assertive action.
Digital deceptions: How a European Democracy Shield can help tackle Russian disinformation | ECFR
Global Economy
(Aengus Collins, Kateryna Karunska – World Economic Forum) The near-term outlook for the global economy is looking brighter, according to the latest Chief Economists Outlook. Yet the report found that uncertainty and volatility remain, with domestic and international politics continuing to be a factor. Almost seven in 10 expect global growth to return to 4% in the next five years.
India – Australia
(Soumya Bhowmick, Nilanjana Das – Lowy The Interpreter) Energy, technology, education, and agriculture – India and Australia have taken significant steps in each sector over recent years to enhance cooperation and build on existing trade. The Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) set down in September 2021 marks a significant milestone in this effort, which both governments see as poised to increase trade volumes by streamlining digital processes and eliminating tariffs on a substantial portion of goods. This agreement is hoped to pave the way for the more ambitious Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (AIFTA), with Australia aiming to place India among its top three export markets by 2035.
A growth agenda for India-Australia economic ties | Lowy Institute
Indonesia
(Rifky Pratama Wicaksono, Muhammad Rafi Bakri – East Asia Forum) Indonesia must overcome numerous challenges to successfully join the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), including improving accountability, transparency and governance standards. To reach the OECD’s rigorous standards, Indonesia’s government must ensure public sector independence, fight corruption across all sectors, implement digitisation measures to enhance transparency and promote active citizen participation.
OECD accession forces Indonesia’s hand on integrity | East Asia Forum
(Eko Sumando – East Asia Forum) Indonesia is increasing its global influence through its foreign aid program, Indonesian AID. Indonesian AID provides technical assistance in the Pacific region, driven by Indonesia’s strong economic performance and the need to navigate global challenges. It also aligns with the Indonesian government’s financial reforms and offers a more cohesive approach to foreign assistance. To maximise its impact, Indonesian AID should focus on developing a robust branding strategy, prudent financial management and a meticulous fund distribution approach.
Indonesia strategically shaping international cooperation through foreign aid | East Asia Forum
Kyrgyzstan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Bishkek has sought to attract workers from other countries to fill the void of a million Kyrgyz workers abroad, a substitution that has sparked xenophobia and violence, most recently on May 17 and 18. The tense situation has been exacerbated by Kyrgyzstan’s weak government, the tradition of public protest, and the populism of Bishkek politicians whose declarations encourage protests even as the regime uses repression against them. Such protest actions are becoming a grave threat to Kyrgyzstan’s stability as Bishkek has made it easier for citizens to arm themselves, leading many to believe their government cannot protect them and prompting some to bring guns to protests.
Kyrgyz Attacks on South Asian Workers Reflect Far Deeper Problems – Jamestown
Mexico
(Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Mexico’s cyber policy has suffered from a lack of political prioritization during the presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Without greater interest from his successor, there are few prospects for reform and progress in Mexico’s response to cyber threats.
Multilateral Peace Operations
(Claudia Pfeifer Cruz and Jaïr van der Lijn – SIPRI) Ahead of the International Day of United Nations Peacekeepers, SIPRI presents its latest data on multilateral peace operations in 2023. SIPRI has published this topical backgrounder that summarizes the key findings of the new data along with important developments related to multilateral peace operations during the year. In addition, SIPRI has issued a map that covers all multilateral peace operations that were active as of May 2023.
Multilateral peace operations in 2023: Developments and trends | SIPRI
NATO
(Richard D. Hooker, Jr. – Atlantic Council) The 2024 US presidential election will be, among other things, a referendum on the United States’ continued role in NATO. With a combined population of more than nine hundred million people and $1.3 trillion dollars in defense spending, NATO is by far the largest, oldest, and most capable defensive alliance in the world. Increasingly, however, some argue that years of “underinvestment” in defense by NATO allies justify US disengagement or even withdrawal from the Alliance. Others see China as the “pacing” threat and argue that a wealthy and populous Europe should be left to provide for its own security. In this context, why does NATO still matter?
Why NATO matters – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin has released a series of “leaks” implying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to freeze hostilities in his war against Ukraine. The release likely occurred now as an attempt to derail preparations for the coming Ukraine peace summit this summer in Switzerland. Creating an option for a ceasefire may grant Putin more flexibility in setting a new balance of interests in the Kremlin and maneuvering across the international arena.
Russia Attempts New Anti-Peace Offensive – Jamestown
Singapore
(Richard Yarrow – East Asia Forum) Despite becoming the most prosperous Asia Pacific country in per capita terms, Singapore faces challenges from global tensions, inequality and an over-reliance on traditional success sectors. To sustain growth, officials are emphasising meritocracy and diversity in talent, promoting upskilling and reforming education to further creativity and innovation. The government is also introducing visa restrictions for foreign white-collar workers and supporting economic diversification towards ‘advanced’ industries such as pharmaceuticals and agritech.
Singapore targets talent for long-term growth | East Asia Forum
South Africa
(Anthony Carroll – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) On May 29, South Africans will decide across three separate ballots the control of Parliament and nine provincial assemblies.
2024 Election to Watch: South Africa – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Greg Mills and Ray Hartley – RUSI) On 29 May, South Africans will go to the polls in what is likely to be the country’s most important election since the advent of a non-racial democracy in 1994. It could be the moment when the country shifts from one-party dominance to coalition rule of one or another stripe.
South Korea
(Jong Eun Lee – East Asia Forum) The Yoon Suk Yeol administration has embraced controversial policy decisions and faced challenges due to a contentious relationship with the opposition-controlled National Assembly. After a major defeat in the April 2024 parliamentary election, the administration hopes to improve political communication and be more receptive to the opposition’s demands. The opposition has criticized the Yoon government’s post-election efforts as insincere and inadequate, warning that the president’s veto of special probes will escalate confrontation. Yoon must balance compromise and confrontation with the opposition while improving public communication lest he become a lame duck less than halfway through his single five-year term.
South Korea’s Yoon strives to stay afloat | East Asia Forum
Sudan
(Benjamin Mossberg – Atlantic Council) In the year since civil war broke out, fighting in Sudan has left more than eight million people displaced—a number far greater than the displacement in Gaza and nearly on par with Ukraine. The war has killed and wounded more than thirteen thousand in the city of El Geneina alone, with the true cost in human lives simply unknown. The reports of war crimes by both parties to the conflict and the deliberate targeting of civilians because of their ethnicity are the stuff of nightmares.
Sudan is an abject disaster. Is anyone listening? – Atlantic Council
UK
(Peter Kellner – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Britain’s Labour party looks set to win July’s general election. In recalibrating the country’s foreign policy, Keir Starmer’s government intends to work more closely with the EU while tackling global challenges.
The UK Braces for a Change of Direction – Carnegie Europe (carnegieendowment.org)
USA – Japan – South Korea
(Sue Mi Terry – Council on Foreign Relations) With renewed support from Russia and China, there are fears that a North Korean crisis is coming. In light of this, the trilateral security relationship among the United States, Japan, and South Korea has reached a new level of cooperation.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
