Geostrategic magazine (october 27, 2022 pm)

• La pace è interesse nazionale – Peace is national interest
• I fantasmi del passato e il futuro già presente – The ghosts of the past and the future already present
• Sovranità alimentare non è sovranismo – Food sovereignty is not sovereignism
• Sovranità, nazione e società aperta – Sovereignty, nation and open society

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

• (Climate Action) Modern Diplomacy. While plans submitted by most signatories of the Paris Agreement would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, they are still not ambitious enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, a new report by UN Climate Change (UNFCCC) warned on Wednesday.The current combined National Determined Contributions (NDCs)—meaning the countries’ national efforts to tackle emissions and mitigate climate change—are leading our planet to at least 2.5 degrees warming, a level deemed catastrophic by scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Countries’ climate promises still not enough to avoid catastrophic global warming
• (Climate Action) Joseph Dellatte, Institut Montaigne. In 2016, 193 countries signed the Paris Agreement which soon became the symbol of international climate cooperation. Six years later, we are facing analarming climate reality, which has only been worsened by the current geopolitical turmoil. Welcome to the Climate Club: Prospects for Europe and East Asia
• (Cybersecurity) Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. The Biden–Harris administration has launched a new initiative designed to improve the security of industrial systems in the chemical sector over the next 100 days, as part of ongoing efforts to reduce cyber-risk in critical infrastructure (CNI). White House Launches Chemical Sector Security Sprint
• (Cybersecurity) Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Security researchers have discovered a new flaw in GitHub which they say could have enabled attackers to take control of repositories and spread malware to related apps and code. GitHub Bug Exposed Repositories to Hijacking
• (Cybersecurity) Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Australian health insurance giant Medibank has announced that all of its customers’ personal information was accessed by ransomware actors, a few days after playing down the impact of a recent breach. Medibank Backtracks: All Customer Data Was Exposed to Hackers
• (Cybersecurity) Beth Maundrill, Infosecurity. October 2022 has seen a huge amount of activity around Cybersecurity Awareness Month across the globe. In Europe, the EU’s cybersecurity agency (ENISA) celebrated 10 years of its campaign and highlighted its new theme #Choose2BeSafeOnline. #CyberMonth: Six Cybersecurity Trends to Stay Ahead Of
• (Nuclear) Franziska Stärk, Ulrich Kühn, Bullettin of the Atomic Scientists. The global nuclear order—built on policies of nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament—is unjust. Russia’s war against Ukraine proves that the distribution of the costs and benefits of nuclear deterrence is particularly discriminatory. The current situation is a painful reminder that nuclear weapons are to global security what fossil fuels are to a green economy: a costly legacy of past generations thwarting justice and sustainability efforts in the long-term. Nuclear injustice: How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows the staggering human cost of deterrence
• (SDGs Financing) Renita D’Souza, Shruti Jain, Observer Research Foundation. Financing is a critical factor in realising the targets of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. In the decade of action (2021-2030), the least developed countries (LDCs) will be the battleground where the SDGs could be either won or lost. This paper estimates the level of SDG spending required in the LDCs, measures the current levels of domestic resource mobilisation and foreign aid and capital received by these countries, and gauges the gaps in the sources of financing. It also evaluates the contribution of the G20 forum to SDG financing in the LDCs, and recommends the ways in which the grouping can improve and accelerate action in this area during India’s presidency in 2023. Bridging the SDGs Financing Gap in Least Developed Countries: A Roadmap for the G20
• (Terrorism) Modern Diplomacy. The United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee holds a special meeting in Mumbai and New Delhi beginning on Friday, focused on the growing threat posed by new and emerging technologies.The two-day meeting in India marks the first time since 2015, that the Committee has convened outside UN Headquarters in New York. UNSC counter-terrorism body to review growing threat posed by new technologies
• (Terrorism) Kabir Taneja, Observer Research Foundation. The threat of terrorism itself has been fast evolving and far surpasses some of the fundamental challenges that the UN, UN Security Council, agencies and members are continuing to try and navigate. Why the UN must evolve to fight modern-day terror

WORLDS

• (Africa) Gilles Yabi, Institut Montaigne. Climate Change Is More Important for Africa than the War in Ukraine
• (AUKUS) Marcus Hellyer, The Strategist. Australia is in style inside the Washington beltway. While AUKUS might not yet have a slogan like the ‘Throw another shrimp on the barbie’ that characterised earlier rounds of American Australophilia, it has captured the imagination of the DC policy elite. There’s broad goodwill for Australia’s bold ambition to acquire nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). Making the most of AUKUS
• (Australia) Jasmine Latimore, The Strategist. US President Joe Biden’s national security strategy sets out his administration’s plan to advance America’s vital interests, position the US to outmanoeuvre its geopolitical competitors, tackle shared challenges and set the world firmly on a path towards a brighter and more hopeful future. It’s understandable, when the world is still dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, that the strategy details how the US aims to foster a cooperative approach to global health security. Australia needs a more comprehensive strategy to deal with biosecurity threats
• (Australia) Brendan Nicholson, The Strategist. After a year of intense research, the head of the 350-strong nuclear-powered submarine taskforce is confident the Royal Australian Navy will be equipped with SSNs. Australia’s navy is cultivating ‘a nuclear mindset’, says SSN taskforce chief
• (Australia – Japan) Rajaram Panda, Vivekananda International Foundation. Amid plummeting popularity at home after deciding to host the controversial state funeral for the slain former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo fully with tax payer’s money, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided to stem this slide by his foreign policy activism. Three external factors drove Kishida to focus on his foreign policy: China’s increasing assertion over the disputed Senkaku islands, North Korea’s continuous missile launches over Japan’s air space and the tensions from the Russia-Ukraine war. Kishida felt it necessary to reach out to Japan’s friends and reinforce Japan’s commitments to rules-based regional order. Meeting the leaders frequently and sharing each other’s viewpoints and concerns is a part of building understanding and confidence-building strategy. Japan-Australia Sign “landmark” Security Pact
• (Canada) World Nuclear News. The commercial production of lutetium-177 (Lu-177) has begun using a new isotope production system (IPS) that was installed in unit 7 of the Bruce plant in Ontario, Canada, during a planned maintenance outage earlier this year. Bruce 7 starts producing innovative therapeutic isotope
• (China) Thi Mai Anh Nguyen, The Interpreter. At the just completed ruling Communist Party Congress, Xi Jinping was re-selected as head of the Party. Many analysts argue that Xi’s personal power consolidation has eliminated restraints within the Party by removing term limits and exploiting an anti-corruption campaign to get rid of rivals. In doing so, Xi has established a network of loyal protégés and made himself the most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. However, the assumption of Xi’s sweeping power might be overstated. Instead, his personal political dominance could be constrained by internal factors, including his trusted allies. Even now, standing supreme, Xi has limits to his power
• (Czech Republic) World Nuclear News. Škoda Praha has agreed to work on cost estimates and plans to build Holtec SMR-160 units in the Czech Republic with Holtec’s partner, Hyundai Engineering and Construction. Holtec’s team for Czech Republic grows
• (Egypt) Mohammed Soliman, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Ahead of COP27, Egypt is bidding itself as a regional power in Africa and the Middle East in hopes of achieving some of its climate change priorities. At COP27, Egypt Aims to Rebuild Its International Standing
• (Ethiopia’s Tigray) Mark Green, Wilson Center. While much of the world is understandably focused on Putin’s war on Ukraine, Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis is actually today’s largest conflict.  Ukraine Understandably in Focus, But Ethiopia’s Tigray Conflict is World’s Largest
• (Europe) Grégory Claeys, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Conor McCaffrey, Lennard Welslau, Bruegel. Headline inflation tracks the change in the price of the average household’s consumption basket. It thus masks how different individuals across society are impacted differently by rising prices. Households can face different inflation rates because their spending patterns are different. For instance, while a sharp rise in the cost of fuel increases overall inflation, a household with no car will be less affected than one with a car. Inflation inequality in the European Union and its drivers
• (Europe) Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Bruegel. EU countries seem to be converging on a set of reform objectives. But can these be jointly satisfied? Two recent proposals offer some hope. European Union fiscal rules: is a better system feasible?
• (Germany) Moritz Kütt, Bullettin of the Atomic Scientists. With its nuclear weapons policy, Germany has tried to kill probably too many birds with one stone. The result has been a mix of partially disconnected, sometimes even contradictory individual policies and governmental actions. This was the case under the previous Merkel governments, remains the case since 2021 under the new Scholz cabinet, and has not changed significantly since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Germany’s nuclear weapons policy and the war: Money for nukes, words for disarmament
• (Iran – Russia) Steven Feldstein, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The images that have emerged from Ukraine’s urban centers over the past week are stark. Lethal Iranian Shahed-136 drones, nicknamed “lawn mowers” or “mopeds” due to their incessant buzzing sound, have rained destruction on the country’s power grids and electricity substations, water pipelines, rail lines, dams, and other critical infrastructure. Air raid sirens have returned to its cities—a glaring reminder of the early days of the war. Experts estimate that Russia has ordered 1,700 Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of different types to conduct attacks against Ukrainian special forces, military units, air defense, and fuel storage depots. The Larger Geopolitical Shift Behind Iran’s Drone Sales to Russia
• (Israel) Tamir Hayman, Eden Kaduri, Ofer Shelah, INSS. When General Herzi Halevi assumes his post as the commander-in-chief of the IDF this coming January, he will be faced with some urgent issues regarding IDF force buildup, including a new low point in the rate of enlistment; declining motivation among soldiers; and gaps relating to the IDF’s preparedness for the next war. This article considers these issues and offers recommendations for the incoming Chief of Staff. The Force Buildup Challenges that Await the Incoming IDF Chief of Staff
• (Russia) Emily Ferris, RUSI. By granting broader powers to regional governors and organisations such as the All-Russia People’s Front, Putin is attempting to construct a political system for the future. Systems Maketh the Man: How Putin is Building Networks to Outlast Him
• (Russia) Maria Demertzis, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Ben McWilliams, Elina Ribakova, Simone Tagliapietra, Bruegel. In this paper we assess both the immediate economic impact and the likely longer-term impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. How have sanctions impacted Russia?
• (Russia – Ukraine) Peter Gleick, Bullettin of the Atomic Scientists. The war in Ukraine that began in late February with the Russian invasion of the southern and eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and the attempted overthrow of the government in Kyiv, has many long and complicated roots. A critical issue, however, little addressed in the media, and little understood by the general public, is the role that fresh water has played in this conflict, and the impacts of the war on Ukraine’s water resources and infrastructure. Water as weapon, and casualty, in Russia’s war on Ukraine
• (Ukraine) World Nuclear News. The World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) board of directors has passed a resolution that “every effort” be taken to “ensure there be no interference in the operator’s ability to safely perform their work” and resolves “to maintain WANO unity in supporting the Zaporizhzhia power plant and ensures that no member nuclear power station becomes isolated from the industry”. WANO resolution stresses unity in supporting Zaporizhzhia
• (USA) New America. Despite the national unity that initially followed the January 6 Capitol insurrection, conversations surrounding the attack quickly became politicized, the subject of heated disinformation, and polarizing as divergent narratives about “what happened” entrenched. Sacred Values, Willingness to Sacrifice, and Accountability for the Capitol Insurrection
• (USA) World Nuclear News. The US government has announced USD150 million in funding provided by President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act for infrastructure improvements at the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to enhance nuclear energy research and development. Federal funding for INL infrastructure upgrades
• (USA) World Nuclear News. The final container of transuranic (TRU) waste has been emplaced in Panel 7 of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico. The panel will now be sealed whilst emplacement activities move to the newly mined Panel 8. Waste emplacement completed at seventh WIPP panel
• (USA – China) Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Megan Hogan, Peterson Institute for International Economics. The CHIPS and Science Act, export controls, and agreements with allied countries will accomplish many of their multiple objectives. More US semiconductor fabrication plants will be built, US R&D will be accelerated, and advanced chips and chip-making machines will be denied to China, Russia, and other adversaries. However, the Act will not make a material difference to US chip supplies in the next two or three years. Slower economic growth has already tipped the chips market in favor of ample supplies. While collective measures have inflicted considerable short-term pain on China, causing a sharp drop in the fortunes of its high-tech firms, China will respond by redoubling its self-sufficiency programs. The United States, however, should not mimic China in pursuing self-sufficiency, as US self-sufficiency is an illusion. The United States currently exports high-value chips and imports low-value chips, so increasing self-sufficiency would require the United States to prioritize basic chip production at the same time it is supposed to be competing with China in advanced chip production. Continuing to prioritize advanced chip production—where the United States has a clear advantage—is the most efficient course of action. CHIPS Act will spur US production but not foreclose China
• (USA – Europe) Modern Diplomacy. Bjoern Seibert, Head of Cabinet to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Berlin on 25 October 2022 with US Deputy National Security Advisor, Mike Pyle, to discuss a spectrum of priority issues including Ukraine Reconstruction. Additionally, during today’s meeting, Mr Seibert and Mr Pyle launched the US-EU Task Force on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Launch of the US-EU Task Force on the Inflation Reduction Act