Geostrategic magazine (october 26, 2022)

• I fantasmi del passato e il futuro già presente – The ghosts of the past and the future already present
• Sovranità alimentare non è sovranismo – Food sovereignty is not sovereignism
• Sovranità, nazione e società aperta – Sovereignty, nation and open society

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

• (Climate Action) Council on Foreign Relations. In October 2012, Superstorm Sandy made landfall as one of the most destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage and dozens of casualties. A decade later, climate change has continued to intensify the impacts of hurricanes in the United States, as made evident by recent Hurricane Ian. Join our panelists as they discuss lessons learned in climate resiliency over the past decade, and how the United States can better prepare for natural disasters moving forward.  Superstorm Sandy: Lessons for Climate Resiliency Ten Years Later
• (Climate Action – COP27) Council on Foreign Relations. John Kerry discusses the U.S. international climate effort ahead of COP27, the upcoming 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. COP27 and International Climate Action: A Conversation With John Kerry
• (Humanitarian Activities) Jacob Kurtzer, Sue Eckert, Sierra Ballard, Center for Strategic & International Studies. Nonprofit organizations (NPOs) operating in regions subject to sanctions and other financial regulations experience significant difficulties transferring funds to support humanitarian and peacebuilding activities.  Mitigating Financial Access Challenges

WORLDS

• (Brazil) Lauri Tähtinen, Center for Strategic & International Studies. Brazil heads into the second round of its general election on Sunday, October 30. This will include runoffs for the governorships in 12 of Brazil’s 26 states, including São Paulo, the most populous and wealthy state. However, most eyes are on the presidential race in which incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is seeking his second term in office and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking his third. In the first round on Sunday, October 2, Lula received 48.4 percent of the vote and Bolsonaro received 43.2 percent. Brazil: Five Phenomena and Three Scenarios
• (Central Asia – China) Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Like most outside powers who have come to Central Asia, China has sought to treat the region as a single whole, a place from which it can extract natural resources and sell its own goods at a profit.  Diversity and Conflicts in Central Asia Limiting Chinese Expansion
• (China) Sourabh Gupta, East Asia Forum. Almost five years to the day that he inaugurated a ‘new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics’, General Secretary Xi Jinping returned to the Great Hall of the People to renew his ‘common prosperity’-based agenda of modernisation and national rejuvenation. Xi needs to talk modestly and carry a bigger (reform) stick
• (China) Xi Jinping received a rare third term as head of the Chinese Communist Party and elevated his loyalists to its top leadership body. Here’s what that means for China’s economy. Politics Will Determine China’s Economic Future During Xi’s Third Term
• (China) Richard C. Bush, Diana Fu, Ryan Hass, Patricia M. Kim, and Cheng Li, Brookings. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party was held from October 16 to October 22, 2022. Brookings experts reflect on the elite political gathering and what its outcomes mean for China and the rest of the world. Around the Halls: The outcomes of China’s 20th Party Congress
• (China) Brookings. China’s 20th Party Congress demonstrated that none of Beijing’s recent troubles, from public anger over COVID lockdowns to economic slowdowns and rising international tensions, have dented President Xi Jinping’s grip on power, says Patricia Kim. In this episode of The Current, Kim examines what leadership personnel changes and Xi’s domestic focus on national security mean for China’s near-term trajectory. What does Xi Jinping’s power move mean for China?
• (Hong Kong) Eric Lai, East Asia Forum. On 26 September 2022, a university professor, two former lawmakers, a Cantopop singer and a Catholic cardinal were charged by the Hong Kong government for failing to register a humanitarian aid fund with the police. The five defendants — 90-year-old Cardinal Joseph Zen, singer Denise Ho, cultural studies professor Po-Keung Hui and former lawmakers Margaret Ng and Cyd Ho — are well-known supporters of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. Judicial repression becomes the norm in Hong Kong
• (Iran) Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for The Study of War. Protest activity will likely increase—possibly significantly—on October 26 to commemorate the 40^th day since the regime killed Mahsa Amini. Iran Crisis Update, October 25
• (Israel) Atlantic Council. The Atlantic Council, in partnership with the Jeffrey M. Talpins Foundation, presented an N7 Initiative public event with President of Israel Isaac Herzog on Tuesday, October 25, 2022. A conversation with President of Israel Isaac Herzog
• (Russia – Ukraine) Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Members of the Russian siloviki faction continue to voice their dissatisfaction with Russian war efforts in Ukraine, indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to struggle to appease the pro-war constituency in the long term. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25
• (Russia – Ukraine – Eurasia – China) John C. K. Daly, The Jamestown Foundation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” against Ukraine has severely impacted Eurasian transport logistics, particularly cargo traveling along the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) bound for Europe via Russian Railways (RZD). In 2021, China Railway Express (CRE), a subsidiary of China Railways Group, dispatched 15,000 trains to and from Europe, carrying 1.46 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs)—a year-on-year increase from 2020 of 22 percent and 29 percent, respectively (China Railways, March 10). As Putin’s War Disrupts Eurasian Railways, China Investigates Alternatives
• (Sudan) Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations. One year ago, on October 25, 2021, the military element of the civilian-military coalition charged with transitioning Sudan from its autocratic past to a more democratic future, seized full control of the country. https://www.cfr.org/blog/sudans-coup-one-year-later
• (USA – China) Council on Foreign Relations. A discussion of the U.S.-China relationship, including how Chinese domestic politics are influencing the country’s agenda abroad, the state of security in the Asia-Pacific with a focus on the future of Taiwan, and U.S. priorities and policy options in the region. Home and Abroad Public Forum: China and U.S.-China Relations