- L’importanza della ‘tech diplomacy’ – The importance of ‘tech diplomacy’
- Ancora strategie da ‘guerra fredda’ – Still ‘cold war’ strategies
- Guerra e complessità del rischio – War and complexity of risk
- Complessità, rischio, glocalizzazione – Complexity, risk, glocalisation
All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye
- (Perspectives) CFR. Shannon K. O’Neil, vice president, deputy director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at CFR, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how regionalization, not globalization, has been the biggest trend of the past forty years—and why that matters. The Globalization Myth, With Shannon K. O’Neil
WORLDS
- (Afghanistan) Nishank Motwani, East Asia Forum. The Taliban recaptured power in 2021 and established a monopoly on violence. Although the Taliban have quashed competition and projected themselves across the country, the regime has not consolidated power, gained domestic legitimacy or shown that it can protect itself from high-profile assassinations. Taliban leaders still lack legitimacy
- (Australia) Abul Rizvi, East Asia Forum. The Albanese government’s announcement that it will increase the intake of permanent migrants from 160,000 to 195,000 over 2022–23 should set Australia on a path of faster population growth. This growth will be significantly faster than that of Australia’s major trading partners, such as China and Japan, and faster than most developed nations, where populations are projected to decline — with the exception being traditional migrant settler nations. Australia’s visa policy should offer a pathway to prosperity
- (Australia – India) Arindrajit Basu, Baani Grewal and Bart Hogeveen, The Strategist. Last month, UN member states elected American candidate Doreen Bogdan-Martin as the next secretary-general of the International Telecommunications Union in a fiercely contested diplomatic battle against a Russian candidate (and former executive of Chinese technology giant Huawei). High time for Australia and India to step up their tech diplomacy
- (CSTO) Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, better known by its initials, CSTO—or by Moscow’s aspiration that it should be an equal counterpart to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—is now on the brink of collapse, yet another case of the collateral damage Russia has suffered in the post-Soviet space from President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine. Will the CSTO Go the Way of the Warsaw Pact
- (Iran) Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Anti-regime protests continued to subside in extent and scale on October 20 but may increase on October 22 and 26. Iran Crisis Update, October 20
- (Japan) Yoshihide Sakurai, East Asia Forum. Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was shot dead on 8 July 2022 in Nara Prefecture while giving a campaign speech in support of a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidate standing in the House of Councillors election. The assassination has led to public scrutiny of the links between the Unification Church and the LDP despite the suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, telling police that the assassination ‘was not [an act of] revenge against [Abe’s] political faith’. The Unification Church splinters Japan
- (Moldova) Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Spearheading regime-change attempts in Moldova is the Shor Party of businessman Ilan Shor, a presumed billionaire currently operating from Israel. The party has developed its social base through Shor‘s lavish spending on philanthropic projects (see EDM, October 20). Moldova’s Russophile Left: A Complicated Picture
- (Moldova) Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Moldova is experiencing an attempt at regime change through social protests mobilized by parties of the Russophile left. They are calling for the resignation of President Maia Sandu and her Western-oriented government and for pre-term parliamentary and presidential elections. All public opinion polls show the Russophile left-wing parties winning such elections easily if held amid the current economic crisis (see EDM, August 4, 8, 9; Ziarul National, October 13). Regime-Change Attempts in Moldova: Russophile, Leftist and Oligarchic
- (Philippines) Al Jazeera. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has said his country will source military helicopters from the United States after scrapping a $215m deal to buy 16 similar heavy-lift helicopters from Russia over fears of sanctions following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Philippines gets US military helicopters after Russia deal dumped
- (Russia) Pavel Luzin, The Jamestown Foundation. Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on February 24, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have not been able to demonstrate success, despite the huge modernization and rearmament efforts of the previous 12 years. The main causes here are not the mistakes of a single individual, but rather the structural problems and challenges that the VKS has faced for years. Russian Air Power: Vanished or Overstated to Begin With?
- (Russia) Constanze Stelzenmüller, Brookings. Can he? Would he? Will he? Western capitals are abuzz with alarm over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated nuclear threats. Joe Biden, the U.S. president, invoked a possible “Armageddon” at a Democratic party fundraising event. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, explained to a primetime television audience how Paris would react to a Russian nuclear attack “on Ukraine or in the region” — not with a nuclear counterstroke, it was said. Russia may prefer sabotage of critical infrastructure over nuclear weapons
- (Russia – Ukraine) Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20
- (UK) Atlantic Council. The revolving door keeps spinning. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned on Thursday after just forty-four days in office—and 105 days after her predecessor, Boris Johnson, similarly bowed out. Truss’s decision comes after she abandoned her plans for tax cuts that had sent financial markets tumbling and exacerbated Britain’s fiscal crisis. Who is up next to take the helm at 10 Downing Street? Can a new leader calm the markets and steady the country’s volatile politics? Our experts sort through the possible contenders and discuss what this political shuffling means for the United Kingdom and its standing in the world. Experts react: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigns. What’s next for Britain and its standing in the world? – Atlantic Council
- (Ukraine) Romina Bandura, Janina Staguhn, Benjamin Jensen, CSIS. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is yielding devastating human and material costs. But with the destruction comes a rare opportunity to modernize Ukraine’s economy by building state-of-the-art infrastructure. Rebuilding hospitals, schools, and housing will be critical to bringing refugees back, while constructing new roads and rail networks alongside ports and airfields could catalyze the economic reconstruction and link the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to global supply chains and markets. Infrastructure investments can achieve a rare combination of political and economic objectives, connecting Ukraine to Europe while helping its large industrial base and educated workforce reach global markets. In other words, rebuilding the transportation and logistics infrastructure in Ukraine provides an opportunity for democratic leaders to realize the vision of the Group of Seven (G7) Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). Modernizing Ukraine’s Transport and Logistics Infrastructure
- (Ukraine) Lilly Blumenthal, Caleb Seamon, Norman Eisen, and Robin J. Lewis, Brookings. While there is currently no clear end in sight to ongoing Russian military aggression against Ukraine, discussions are already active about Ukraine’s reconstruction. History reveals how to get Ukraine reconstruction right: anti-corruption
- (USA) James Curran, East Asia Forum. Within days of each other, revealing portraits of the United States and China have been unveiled. In Washington, the Biden administration released its national security strategy. It says much about American psychology at a critical juncture. And Beijing witnessed the opening of the 20th Party Congress on 16 October that will see Xi Jinping confirmed as president for a record third term. Biden’s strategy traces the Cold War’s mental map
- (USA) Alexander Kersten, Gabrielle Athanasia, CSIS. The strength of the United States’ robust innovation system is driven by a well-functioning venture capital (VC) market that is key in maintaining the strength of U.S. global economic leadership. Venture funding plays a major role in de-risking the innovation process by taking a bet on promising concepts by furnishing bright individuals with the resources to bring their ideas to market. This in turn promotes innovative technologies, grows businesses, and contributes to economic development and competitiveness by helping firms commercialize new ideas and bring them to market. Addressing the Gender Imbalance in Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship
- (USA) Elaine Kamarck and Norman Eisen, Brookings. As has been reported in these pages and in other publications around the country, there are many candidates on the November ballot who think the 2020 election was fraudulent (so-called, “election deniers”). A substantial portion of them seem poised to win. So, what will their victories mean for elections in 2024 and beyond? To better understand this question, we have looked at as many campaign proposals as we could find, beginning with candidates for secretary of state, governor and attorney general because these offices hold the most power and responsibility over elections. This piece will attempt to describe the agenda(s) of those who are running as election deniers with respect to how elections are run in the United States and to assess the impact on democratic elections should they succeed. Democracy on the ballot—What do election deniers want?
- (USA) Tracy Hadden Loh, DW Rowlands, Adie Tomer, Joseph W. Kane, and Jennifer S. Vey, Brookings. As the saying goes, three things matter in real estate: location, location, location. Cities and metropolitan areas are built around assets such as transportation nodes, employment hubs, cultural attractions, political and religious institutions, and health facilities—all of which tend to cluster in specific locations. The ability to develop the places that concentrate these assets has always been a key ingredient to building productive and thriving metro areas. Mapping America’s activity centers: The building blocks of prosperous, equitable, and sustainable regions
