All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye
TOPICS
- (Artificial Intelligence) Cameron F. Kerry, Joshua P. Meltzer, and Andrea Renda, Brookings. The Forum for Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence (FCAI) has investigated opportunities and obstacles for international cooperation to foster development of responsible artificial intelligence (AI). It has brought together officials from seven governments (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and United States with experts from industry, academia, and civil society to explore similarities and differences in national policies on AI, avenues of international cooperation, ecosystems of AI research and development (R&D), and AI standards development among other issues. Following a series of roundtables in 2020 and 2021, we issued a progress report in October 2021 that articulated why international cooperation is especially needed on AI, identified significant challenges to such cooperation, and proposed four key areas where international cooperation could deepen: Regulatory alignment, standards development, trade agreements, and joint R&D. The report made 15 recommendations on ways to make progress in these areas. AI cooperation on the ground: AI research and development on a global scale
- (COP27) Chukwumerije Okereke, Institut Montaigne. The Egyptian government emphasized its aim to make this COP an implementation one. Officials have repeatedly stated that they wish to move the conference from being mostly a talk shop to that of proactive policy-making and enforcement. However, what that means remains unclear, as the COP is traditionally not designed to be a place where you implement. If you ask Africa (especially the Egyptian government) what they mean by making progress on implementation, the answer you might get is that they would like to see specific new promises on increased mitigation plans by developed countries, especially the G7 and G20. The latest IPCC report shows that emissions across all ranges of greenhouse gasses have increased over the past 20 years and continue to rise. It also makes the crucial point that the combination of all the current pledges of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) do not put us on the path of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, hence disclosing an important ambition gap. This means that when the Egyptians or African countries say that they want to see implementation, they are expecting countries to come up with some new ambition pledges. All Eyes on Africa: What COP27 Entails for the Continent
- (COP27) Toni Salma, Sandeep Pai, Joseph Majkut, CSIS. The 27th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP27) will be held November 6–18 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The COP26 held last year in Glasgow had two particularly positive outcomes. First, countries updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to collectively reflect enough ambition to meet the 2 degree Celsius warming target of the Paris Climate Agreement. Second, different levels of government, the private sector, and philanthropy announced a variety of measures to tackle challenges in technology, finance, and the political economy of emissions reductions. Many of these initiatives were sealed outside of the official negotiations. Themes to Watch For at COP27
- (COP27) Mohamed Adow, Al Jazeera. International climate change conferences are weighty enterprises — they must stand on solid pillars of action, not just warm words and hot air. Starting on Sunday, the United Nations climate meeting in Egypt, COP27, will be no different. And no pillar is more important for Africa than international climate finance. Why climate cash could make or break COP27
- (Defense – Military – Security) Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. Bulgarian lawmakers have voted to approve the purchase of eight F-16C/D Block 70 fighter jets for the country’s Air Force. The forthcoming acquisition is to be worth close to $1.3 billion. Bulgarian parliament votes to buy F-16s under $1.3 billion deal
- (Defense – Military – Security)
- (Human Development) Pedro Conceição, Brookings. New dimensions of uncertainty are emerging. Lives are being unsettled around the world. To turn new uncertainties into opportunities, we must unleash people’s creative and cooperative potential. We must double down on human development. That is the conclusion of the recently launched 2021-22 Human Development Report titled “Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping Our Future in a Transforming World.”. Human development in an age of uncertainty
WORLDS
- (Arab League) Bruce Riedel, Brookings. Algeria hosted the first Arab League summit since 2019 this week. Some significant heads of state were absent, reflecting the deep divisions in the Arab world. The communiqué, the Algerian Declaration, was focused on supporting the Palestinians. The Biden administration has wisely engaged with Algeria — it can do more. What happened at the 2022 Arab League summit in Algeria?
- (Ethiopia’s Tigray) Atlantic Council. This week, negotiators from the Ethiopian government and rebels in the Tigray region reached a truce to end their two-year war—one that has killed hundreds of thousands of people through fighting and starvation, and included accusations of war crimes. With the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reportedly agreeing to lay down its arms and the government agreeing to restore essential services to its battered northern region, what are the chances that this deal will hold? What role should international institutions play? Our regional experts help sketch out the answers. What to watch next on Ethiopia’s peace deal in Tigray
- (France – AUKUS) Jérémy Bachelier, Celine Pajon, IFRI. Back in September 2021, the announcement of AUKUS – the defense partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) was a shock to Paris. France and AUKUS: Bouncing Back to Live up to Pacific Challenges
- (Iran) Sine Ozkarasahin, The Jamestown Foundation. On October 10, Iranian loitering munitions rained over Ukraine’s urban centers, including Kiev. Two weeks later, Israeli forces struck an Iranian drone factory in Syria (Al Arabiya, October 23). This demonstrated how Iran’s drone program is now beyond Iran, both in terms of production and operational impact. Iran has become a drone-exporting nation and Iranian drones are creating new flashpoints in different geopolitical axes. Iranian Drones Are Changing the Battlefields of Eurasia
- (Iran) Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Amin Soltani and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Parents of Iranian youth spearheading ongoing demonstrations are increasingly describing protests as a revolutionary movement, mirroring their children’s rhetoric. Iran Crisis Update, November 4
- (Iran – Russia) Nikita Smagin, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, relations between Russia and Iran have flourished. Having been hit by a new raft of tough Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow set about looking for alternative partners among other traditionally anti-Western countries—including to bypass trade restrictions—and Iran looks set to be one of the most promising. Comrades-in-Sanctions: Can Iran Help Russia Weather the Economic Storm?
- (Kashmir) Sudha Ramachandran, The Jamestown Foundation. On October 17, two migrant laborers from the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh came to work in the Kashmir Valley, and were later killed in a grenade attack in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)’s Shopian district. Just two days before this, a Kashmiri Pandit (Hindu of Kashmiri origin) was also shot dead outside his home in the same district. These killings are the latest in a string of militant attacks on Kashmiri Pandits and non-Kashmiri migrants from other parts of India. Kashmiri “Hybrid Militants’” New Phase of Terrorism
- (Malaysia) Ajay Mahal, Sumit Kane, East Asia Forum. The Control of Tobacco Products and Smoking Bill 2022 currently under parliamentary examination marks a dramatic change in Malaysia’s strategy to limit tobacco consumption. Among its provisions are the prohibition of the sale, purchase and possession of cigarettes, tobacco and vaping products as well as a ban on cigarette smoking, tobacco use and vaping among those born after 1 January 2007. Can Malaysia effectively ban tobacco?
- (North Korea) Scott A. Snyder, CFR. North Korea seeks to exploit major-power rivalries and weaken U.S.-South Korea ties with its ramped-up missile testing. Already, it has ratcheted up nuclear tensions on the Korean Peninsula to their highest level in years. North Korea Has Escalated Its Military Provocations. Here’s Why
- (Pakistan) Ali Zahid, The Jamestown Foundation. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, or “Pakistani Taliban”) now has a confirmed presence not only in northwestern Pakistan’s Swat district, but also in Dir, Bajaur, and Buner districts. After a military operation in Swat in 2009, the TTP had been expelled from the area, but TTP have re-emerged. The TTP first became active in Swat in 2008 and demanded the implementation of sharia law in that area, but they were not violent initially. However, after gaining some strength, the TTP became violent and began beheading government security forces, elders and other civilians opposed to the group. Although Swat, which is known today as the Switzerland of Asia, also was the area where the Nobel Laureate Malala Yousafzai was shot by the TTP in 2012, the government writ strengthened in the district after a military operation in Swat in 2009. No major incidents occurred after the Malala assassination attempt, for example (India Today, August 12). Nonetheless, the recent re-emergence of TTP in Swat may bring another wave of renewed chaos and instability in Swat. The Pakistani Taliban’s Re-Emergence in Swat: Reasons and Potential Responses
- (Russia) Al Jazeera. Russia’s previously secretive Wagner Group, a private mercenary force, has opened its first official headquarters in the Russian city of Saint Petersburg. Russian mercenary force Wagner opens first official headquarters
- (Russia – North Korea) Anthony V Rinna, East Asia Forum. The dissonance between the two conflict-ridden ends of Russia’s periphery continues to shrink as the situation in Ukraine exerts an increasing influence on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. Russia and North Korea are partners in sanctions-busting crime
- (Russia – Ukraine) Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Madison Williams, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve operationally significant gains. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4
- (Russia – Ukraine – UN Black Sea Grain Initiative) Russia rejoined the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative on Wednesday after pausing its participation over the weekend when its Black Sea Fleet was attacked off the Crimean city of Sevastopol. The deal, signed in July for a 120-day period, is up for renewal on November 19. What do Russia’s decisions this week bode for the future of the grain deal? And what does the grain deal mean for Ukrainian agriculture and global food security? Russia’s UN Grain Deal Boomerang: Implications for the Deal and Global Food Prices
- (USA) CSIS. The 2022 Missile Defense Review
- (USA) Elaine Kamarck and John Hudak, Brookings. As we come to the end of 2022 midterm election cycle, candidates are scrambling to engage in last minute messaging and message changes that can push them over the finish line. In some cases, candidates try to change or at least soften positions which served them well in the primaries in hopes of attracting just enough voters to put them over the top. This was especially so for two hot-button issues that emerged in the Republican primaries—abortion and denying the results of the 2020 election. In other cases, candidates work to ‘flip the script’ on their opponent. Here a candidate seizes on an issue typically used against their party and uses that issue against their opponent. We have seen several examples of this playing out in the 2022 midterms. Last minute messaging for the midterms
- (USA) Sanjay Patnaik, Robert E. Litan, and James Kunhardt, Brookings. On October 27, Elon Musk purchased Twitter in a deal worth $44 billion. Expectations and opinions about the deal vary widely. Critics are concerned that Musk will remove important safeguards against hate speech, online harassment, and incitement of violence, and weaken the platform’s rules against mis- and disinformation. Proponents of the deal hope that Musk will improve Twitter’s business model and expand the capabilities of the platform, turning it into an “everything app” with a range of products and services. The national security grounds for investigating Musk’s Twitter acquisition
- (USA) Christopher A. Thomas, Brookings. Semiconductors are the lifeblood of the digital economy. The semiconductor industry has moved to the foreground of political discourse both in the United States and other countries. The pushes from America’s economic rivals and the challenges faced by its own domestic industry, coupled with supply chain shortages, prompted calls for the U.S. government to “do something” to support the industry. The most visible response is the CHIPS Act, which allocates $39 billion in government funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing facilities and billions more for semiconductor research and development (R&D) and workforce programs. A semiconductor strategy for the United States
- (USA) Atlantic Council. The suspense is over: The Biden administration’s first National Defense Strategy is finally here. Last week, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin unveiled the long-awaited document, which details the Department of Defense’s (DOD) plans to face up to critical challenges ahead: Russian aggression; increasing threats from North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations; and—chief among the challenges—China’s moves to reshape the international order. But is this strategy likely to bring about any significant change? And how are the United States’ allies reading the strategy? Can the US keep pace with increasing global threats? Our experts decode the National Defense Strategy
- (USA – Ukraine) Patrick Tucker, Defense One. The United States is helping to pay for refurbished tanks for Ukraine and sending more anti-aircraft systems and electrical-power gear, Pentagon and White House officials said Friday. The move comes as Russia continues to target Ukrainian infrastructure while pulling back from key areas. Donated Tanks Headed to Ukraine
