LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Girish Luthra – Observer Research Foundation) Australia released its first National Defence Strategy (NDS) on 17 April 2024 following the Defence Strategic Review 2023, which mandated the issuance of a biennial NDS. The NDS was accompanied by the Integrated Investment Programme (IIP) 2024 to ensure that funding plans are optimally synchronised with the strategy that includes capability priorities, force posture and structure, defence acquisitions and industry, recruitment, and international engagement. While the NDS highlights Australia’s engagements at the global and regional (Indo-Pacific) levels, it focuses on Australia’s primary area of military interest which covers the Northeast Indian Ocean through maritime Southeast Asia into the Pacific, including northern approaches.
Australia’s Defence Strategy boosts western Pacific alliances (orfonline.org)
China
(Joe Keary – ASPI The Strategist) The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone its largest restructure in nearly a decade, with Chinese President Xi Jinping placing key military organisations responsible for information warfare directly under the control of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Committee (CMC).
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Reem Halaseh – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Climate change impacts are felt worldwide, manifesting in diverse ways across different regions. Jordan, too, has experienced intensified and more frequent heatwaves, flash floods, droughts, and associated health issues due to climate change. This article aims to unveil evidence-based vulnerabilities and risks to climate change in urban areas within Jordan, focusing on its capital, Amman.
Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities in Amman City – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Cyberspace
(Talita Dias – Chatham House) Countermeasures are established mechanisms available to states as a response to violations of international law, but when can they be taken and how do they apply in cyberspace?
European Union
(European Union Institute for Security Studies) Global peace and security are built on cooperation. At a time of increasing fragmentation and contestation, we need stronger partnerships in the security and defence realm. The EU has always sought partners around the world to support the rules-based multilateral order, but current grave challenges to our common security require increased efforts, new forms of cooperation and targeted partnerships that focus on delivering results. This Brief proposes that to further enhance the ability of the EU and its partners to deliver on security together, the EU could offer its closest partners a ‘Partnership Plus’ format. Such a format would enable deeper engagement in decision-shaping and capability development initiatives. Given the many global security challenges, there is also a need for more tailored partnerships around the world on key issues of common concern such as: crisis management; protecting the global commons; and safeguarding critical resources and capabilities. The Brief concludes with reflections on how targeted partnerships in these key areas can empower the EU and its partners to work together for peace and security.
(European Union Institute for Security Studies) Contestation dynamics have intensified in recent years, to the point they are now driving global politics. This shift is not only due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resurgence of violent territorial conflicts worldwide, but also to the escalating rivalry between the United States and China. Perhaps most significantly, an informal coalition of countries is actively promoting an anti-Western discourse and challenging established global governance structures and institutions. There is a fierce global battle over norms, votes, investments and much else. In this Chaillot Paper, we explore the convergence of diverse challenges to the current international order and how European leaders and policymakers should navigate a world where various forms of contestation are amplifying and accumulating. Developing successful strategies for Europe to survive and thrive in a world of contestation will not be easy, or cheap. But it is a task that cannot be avoided: it must be a top priority for the new EU leadership taking office in 2024.
(Crisis Group) Each year, Crisis Group publishes two updates to the EU Watch List identifying where the EU and its member states can enhance prospects for peace. This update includes entries on Bosnia and Herzegovina, Haiti, Sudan, Philippine-Chinese frictions in the South China Sea and Hizbollah-Israel tensions.
Watch List 2024 – Spring Update | Crisis Group
(Ana Palacio – ASPI The Strategist) This month the European Union celebrated the 20th anniversary of its biggest-ever enlargement, which brought 10 new members into the bloc. That event remains a potent reminder of the EU’s potential to advance peace and unity across the European continent. But, at a time of deep internal divisions and an increasingly volatile external environment, the giddy idealism of 2004 seems a distant dream, and the prospects of further enlargement appear uncertain.
Is the European Union too big for further enlargement? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Linda Robinson – Council on Foreign Relations) The European Union (EU) began implementing the Digital Services Act (DSA) this year, just in time to combat online disinformation and other electoral interference in the dozens of elections taking place in Europe’s twenty-seven member countries and the European Parliament elections taking place June 6 through June 9. To prepare, the EU conducted a stress test of the DSA mechanisms to address elections targeted by false and manipulated information, incitement, and attempts to suppress voices. The DSA has also opened investigations against Meta, TikTok, and X out of concern they are not doing enough to prevent these scenarios.
Georgia
(James Nixey – Chatham House) Eduard Shevardnadze – Soviet foreign minister and the second president of independent Georgia – is spinning in his grave. Deposed in the country’s Rose Revolution in 2003 for his government’s corruption and bygone-era politicians, he was nonetheless a proud Georgian who would not have mortgaged his country’s destiny, as the current leadership is doing.
India
(Sanjay Pulipaka – Lowy The Interpreter) The world’s largest democratic election is well underway in India, with approximately 968.8 million registered voters. That’s almost a billion people registered to vote, roughly three times the total population of the United States. The seven-phase voting will conclude on 1 June. Vote counting will commence on the morning of 4 June, and the results will be announced by late evening on the same day.
The extraordinary logistics of India’s election | Lowy Institute
Indo – Pacific
(Harsh V. Pant, Don McLain Gill – Observer Research Foundation) Earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met his Australian, Filipino and Japanese counterparts to institutionalize and launch the ‘Squad’ as a new four-way security arrangement in the Indo-Pacific. The Squad has become an essential addition to the series of security ‘mini-lateral’ groupings in the Indo-Pacific, such as the Quad, Aukus, the US-Philippines-Japan trilateral and the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral.
What does an emerging Squad in the Indo-Pacific mean for India? (orfonline.org)
(Rahul Mishra – Lowy The Interpreter) In light of the successful first-ever US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit and joint maritime patrols in the South China Sea involving the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines in April, the concept of a new minilateral group dubbed the “Squad” has emerged – a four-way counterbalance to China amid escalating tensions between China and the Philippines over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. At the same time, the postponement of the New Delhi summit for the leaders of the Quad, comprising Australia, India, Japan and the United States, as well as India’s recent foreign policy decisions, such as abstaining from UN resolutions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, maintaining trade ties with Russia, procuring Russian S-400 missile systems against the preference of the United States, and the Chabahar port deal with Iran, have raised doubts about the Quad’s cohesion.
The “Squad” is a welcome spin-off, but the Quad is the main game | Lowy Institute
Middle East and the Gulf
(Gurjit Singh – Observer Research Foundation) The Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the consequent reaction by Israel, which continues to date, have perplexed ASEAN and its members. All ASEAN countries do not have the same approach to Israel and Palestine. There is growing sympathy for the people of Gaza, who are suffering from Israeli action.
ASEAN’s response to the Gaza crisis (orfonline.org)
Myanmar
(Morgan Michaels – IISS) Anti-junta forces continue to make gains on the battlefield. But tense social dynamics and the consequences of protracted violence threaten to derail their momentum.
Threat of communal violence grows in western and central Myanmar – IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
(Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation) The reinstatement of the conscription law by the Junta in Myanmar has been interpreted by many as a sign of its weakening grip on power. Following the 2021 coup, clashes between the army and pro-democracy factions, later joined by ethnic armed groups, have eroded the regime’s control over territories, economic zones, and its personnel.
Rohingya crisis: Exploitation, recruitment, and challenges (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Andrey Pertsev – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) There is a growing tumor in the system of personnel appointments that is now affecting the functioning of the Russian state, with some people even having their letters of resignation rejected.
(Paul Dibb – ASPI The Strategist) On 6 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he had authorised a military exercise involving the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in southern Russia. He claimed there was ‘nothing unusual’ in such a planned training exercise.
Is Putin preparing for nuclear war? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is currently purging numerous military officers and MoD officials in an alleged “anti-corruption” campaign. The political motivation for these attacks is unclear, though this could be an effort to find scapegoats responsible for Russia’s troubles in the war against Ukraine. Public officials, military leaders, and top managers of state-owned factories and corporations in Russia must violate laws to execute their daily responsibilities, and deciding who is to be punished for these violations is almost always political.
Russian Ministry of Defense Conducts ‘Great Purge’ – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian commentary on the Baltic region and with Putin’s broader tactics as its appearance and then removal allow the Kremlin to both send a strong message and weaken Western resolve. As such, the plan deserves far more attention as evidence of Russian intentions so the West can live up to its NATO commitments and block Russian moves in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Despite Disowning Plan, Moscow Sends Clear Message of Intentions With Baltic Borders – Jamestown
Russia – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s eastern flank. The nuclear exercises suggest that, in the future, the Belarusian Armed Forces may engage directly in the war.
Russia and Belarus Hold Joint Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises (Part One) – Jamestown
Syria
(Atlantic Council) The road to accountability for the violence and destruction that the Bashar al-Assad regime has perpetrated in Syria over the past dozen years has been long and circuitous. But few people probably expected that road would run through Paris. On Tuesday in the French capital, a landmark trial began of three former Syrian intelligence officials charged with torture, murder, and other crimes.
Turkey
(Marc Pierini – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Multiple crises have taken the international spotlight off Turkey. This, combined with Ankara’s contradictory foreign policy ambitions and rule-of-law deficiencies, limits the country’s global clout.
Turkey’s Dwindling International Role – Carnegie Europe (carnegieendowment.org)
(Galip Dalay, Lisa Toremark – Chatham House) Explaining the history of democracy in Turkey, prospects for its future trajectory and the key factors behind the current crisis in the country’s democracy.
Democracy in Turkey | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
UK
(Helena Wood – RUSI) For many working in the counter-fraud profession, the 2010s are very much seen as a ‘lost decade’ during which the state-led counter-fraud effort stagnated at precisely the same time as organised fraudsters were capitalising on a range of technological and societal advances. By the time of the Covid-19 pandemic – itself an accelerator of the problem – the crime had reached astronomical levels, costing the UK economy an estimated £190 billion a year. This has led many, including the author, to view fraud – by dint of its sheer scale and links with organised crime and terrorism – as a ‘silent threat’ to national security.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
