LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
(Puspa Kumari – Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses) The recent clashes between the Taliban and local communities over the destruction of opium fields in the Badakhshan province and other areas underscore the complex dynamics surrounding opium cultivation in Afghanistan. The Taliban will have to regain the trust of the international community by fulfilling its commitments contained in the Doha agreement, to enable it to access resources to bring about the desired changes in Afghan economy and society.
(Emily Winterbotham – RUSI) Terrorism continues to take place primarily in contexts of violent conflict. According to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index, in 2022, more than 88% of terrorism-related attacks and 98% of terrorism deaths occurred in countries experiencing conflict. Yet there are pronounced risks associated with implementing sensitive P/CVE (preventing and countering violent extremism) activities in active conflicts. The security of staff on the ground is difficult to guarantee, and programme impact may be minimal given the fast-changing environment. Government engagement also depends on the capacities of the state and its proximity to armed conflict.
Artificial Intelligence
(Anulekha Nandi – Observer Research Foundation) The Council of Europe adopted the first international legally binding treaty on AI. However, the regulatory approach and normative ambiguities leave key questions on responsibilities and liabilities unanswered.
The first international AI treaty: Progress with caveats (orfonline.org)
(Alex Krasodomski, Olivia O’Sullivan, Rowan Wilkinson – Chatham House) This week’s AI Seoul summit offers an opportunity to broaden the conversation on AI from a narrow but important focus on safety, to one that further explores the technology’s potential benefits. The Seoul summit convenes governments and select global industry, academic and civil society leaders, not only around efforts to ‘ensure AI model safety’ but to support ‘innovation and inclusivity’.
(Peter N. Salib – Lawfare) OpenAI and its competitors are racing as fast as they can to develop systems that are as capable and as autonomous as possible.
OpenAI No Longer Takes Safety Seriously | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
(Bruce Mehlman, Matt Perault – Lawfare) In the tech sector, the political alliances that drive policymaking shift rapidly. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is changing them again. These new dynamics will influence the scope and scale of AI regulation in the United States and throughout the world.
How AI Is Changing Tech Policy Politics in Washington | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
Australia
(Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist) Federal government initiatives revealed this month have reinforced Northern Australia’s pivotal role in national and international energy and minerals security. While they make for good announcements, whether federal and state policies can deliver on development objectives remains unclear.
Australia – AUKUS
(Kim Beazley – ASPI The Strategist) Australia has the chance to resolve the problems the AUKUS partners and their friends and allies have with critical minerals, particularly with rare earths, in the face of what is now effectively Chinese monopoly and dominance in processing—a product of skilful statecraft.
We need a third pillar of AUKUS: critical minerals | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
China
(Kalpit A Mankikar, Satyam Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Having realised that narrative flow is key to winning modern wars, China is improving its strategic capabilities in information warfare.
Tracking China’s moves on information warfare (orfonline.org)
China – India
(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) In recent years, India has become a hot investment destination for Chinese companies. While Chinese investments in India have come under greater scrutiny following the 2020 Galwan incident, this has done little to reverse Chinese enterprises’ strong appetite for the Indian market. At the same time, Beijing is increasingly concerned that in their rush to capitalise on the Indian market, Chinese companies are embracing the ‘Make in India’ policy and inadvertently supporting India’s ambition to replace China as the world’s leading manufacturing hub.
To Stay or To Go: Decoding Chinese Enterprises’ ‘India Dilemma’ (orfonline.org)
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Anne Sénéquier – Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques) Alors que l’hémisphère Nord se dirige vers l’été, la saison des incendies a d’ores et déjà commencé. Au Canada, les premières flammes sont apparues le 20 février 2024 dans la province d’Alberta. En Russie, mi-mars, la Sibérie avait déjà vécu 8 brasiers. En quoi ces incendies sont-ils un problème de santé mondiale, accélérant le changement climatique ?
(Abiral Khatri – Stimson Center) The Triangular Partnership of United States – Nepal – UN for a Hybrid Solar Power Generation Project is a first of its kind that demonstrates a significant step towards enabling a Troop Contributing Country’s (TCC) contribution to meeting the UN’s climate goals. Other donor-TCC partnerships to further the use of renewable energy at UN peacekeeping sites are under consideration. Ultimately, UN peacekeeping through the proliferation of autonomous renewable energy technologies has the potential to be an anchor in improving energy access by surrounding communities and furthering the mission of mitigating conflict.
Transforming Climate Finance into Action • Stimson Center
(Observer Research Foundation) With 2023 becoming the warmest year on record, the urgency of actions to achieve the Paris Agreement goals on time has intensified (WMO, 2024). One of the main takeaways from the first Global Stocktake was that the “[…] Parties are off track when it comes to meeting their Paris Agreement goals” (UN, n.d.), necessitating an assessment of how to get the Parties back on track.
Policy Solutions for the International Climate Change Regime (orfonline.org)
(Manish Thakre – Observer Research Foundation) This brief discusses the challenges faced by urban local bodies (ULBs) in India in accessing urban climate finance (UCF), and proposes solutions based on successful strategies used by some of them. The hurdles include institutional barriers and limited capacity. The brief finds that ULBs that have met with success in accessing UCF overcame the obstacles through early sensitisation programmes and global network connections. It offers plausible solutions, including establishing dedicated climate action departments, implementing climate budgeting mechanisms, and embarking on capacity building initiatives within ULBs.
Enhancing Access to Urban Climate Finance: Learnings from Four Cities in India (orfonline.org)
(Bob Berwyn – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Extreme climate shocks, intensified by global warming, killed hundreds of people and devastated livelihoods and ecosystems across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2023, scientists with the World Meteorological Organization said earlier this week when they released the annual state of the climate report for the region.
(Oliver Milman – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found.
Europe – Indo Pacific
(Ben Schreer – IISS) European defence engagement with the Indo-Pacific is increasing. 2024 and 2025 will see expanded deployments and greater participation in regional exercises. This growing presence will face challenges, however, including limited resources and US–China competition.
Coming of age? European defence engagement in the Indo-Pacific (iiss.org)
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia, by changing its geopolitical vector in favor of Russia, risks losing not only the West’s political and economic support by changing its geopolitical vector in favor of Russia but also Western investment. The Georgian Dream government is considering Chinese investment and the “dirty money” of Russian oligarchs as alternatives to Western investment. The US Congress has introduced a draft bill stipulating that if Tbilisi stops its anti-democratic moves, Washington will introduce visa liberalization with Georgia, a free-trade agreement, and a comprehensive defense package.
Georgia Stands at Crossroads Between Autocratic Russia and Democratic West – Jamestown
Global Sanctions
(Anton Moiseienko – RUSI) Oligarchs’ occasional success in challenging sanctions in court is no cause for alarm at all. We should worry less about courts and focus more on finding and freezing sanctioned assets.
The Strange Game of Oligarchs Challenging Sanctions | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
India – Nepal
(Shivam Shekhawat – Observer Research Foundation) Oscillating between periods of cooperation and setbacks, the India-Nepal bilateral relationship is considered ‘special’ and ‘unique’ by all who observe their dynamics. Thus, the failure of the two sides to maximize their potential and fully capitalize on the factors that make this partnership different is often criticized. In the past decade, under India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy, the focus of the Indian leadership has been on working on the convergences, while preventing the issues of contention from casting a shadow on progress. This approach has found a receptive audience in Nepal as well, with the two sides increasing cooperation. Even as China strives to solidify its presence in the country, Nepal, owing to its strategic location, has (in)voluntarily become a part of the geopolitical churning that is taking shape in South Asia. As the current government in India completes its second stint in power, the timing is opportune to briefly reflect on the trajectory that the bilateral relationship has taken up in the past decade and the course it will adopt in the coming years.
Reimagining India-Nepal ties: The decade that was and the road ahead (orfonline.org)
India – Russia – China
(Harsh V, Pant – Observer Research Foundation) As the world order continues to evolve, key players are reconfiguring their policies as a response. The West is being challenged internally as domestic aspirations change under the onslaught of global forces, even as the global balance of power remains in a state of flux. Though China is viewed by the West and the US in particular as the most significant long-term challenge, the Ukraine war has ensured that most of the Western efforts and resources are now directed at managing a crisis on the European periphery. Russia has once again bounced back as a serious threat in the consciousness of European policy elites.
India Can’t Wish Away The Growing Russia-China Bonhomie (orfonline.org)
India – Turkmenistan
(Ngangom Dhruba Tara Singh – Centre for Air Power Studies) The TEIF 2024 (Turkmen Energy Investment Forum), an international event aimed at attracting foreign investments in Turkmenistan’s energy sector, concluded on April 25, 2024, and was coordinated by Turkmennebit (Turkmenoil), Turkmengaz (Türkmengaz), and Turkmengeology in collaboration with the British company GaffneyCline. The objective of this event as highlighted by Ashirguly Begliev (Advisor to the President of Turkmenistan on oil and gas issues) is “to expand opportunities to attract foreign direct investment in all segments of the energy sector of Turkmenistan related to the extraction, transportation, and processing of oil and gas, the production of renewable energy sources, construction, as well as environmental aspects of the development of hydrocarbon fields.” The Forum convened prominent domestic and foreign energy corporations, along with influential individuals who shape the trajectory of the oil and gas sector, not just in Turkmenistan, but also in the broader region. The emphasis of the forum was to attract investment in offshore blocks N21 and N23, West Cheleken, optimise production at mature fields, and advance the next phase of development of the Galkynysh field.
TEIF 2024: How India can engage in Turkmenistan’s Energy Sector? – CAPS India
India – USA
(Cherian Samuel – Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses) With sundry agreements signed between India and the United States (US) in the recent past, to facilitate defence cooperation, the next ones on the anvil are the Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) agreement and the Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement (RDPA). Described by a Korean analyst as a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in defence, getting RDPA through might be a challenge for the two countries.
Japan
(Khyati Singh – Centre for Air Power Studies) The evolution of the internet has brought fundamental changes to the everyday operations of human life. It has been a generation-defining technology, and its advancement continues to take people by surprise. In its nascent stage, it was the narrowband internet in the 1960s in the form of ARPANET. Over time, the world was introduced to ‘Broadband’ technologies like Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) and cable modems, which started the journey of ‘speed of the internet. Ever since ‘speed’ became a defining feature of the internet, states took it upon themselves to excel in this race. Japan is the latest nation to take a leap forward by testing for a 6G network. This ‘Generational’ change is rooted in a history of its own, starting with the 1G networks.
The Leap of Technology: Japan Tests 6G Network – CAPS India
Malaysia
(James Chin – Lowy The Interpreter) The ruling coalition in the Malaysian state of Sarawak, Gabugan Parti Sarawak (GPS), has been assiduously working since 2018 towards the political goal of establishing the most autonomous state inside the Malaysian federation. This has raised concerns in the corridors of the administrative capital Putrajaya that, in the long run, it would result in some sort of independence from the federation.
Malaysia: The Sarawak secession? | Lowy Institute
Middle East and the Gulf
(Koichi Nakagawa – Japan Institute of International Affairs) Fighting between Hamas and Israel over Gaza intensified on October 7, 2023, beginning with an attack on Israel by Hamas. During this period, Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen repeatedly attacked Israel with rockets, ballistic missiles, and drones. It was under these circumstances that, on April 1, 2024, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing Brigadier General Mohammad Zahedi, a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and others. On April 13 (local time), Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones in retaliation for the killings. For the first time in history, Iran directly attacked the Israeli mainland, moving the geopolitics of the Middle East into a new configuration. Amid fears of Israeli retaliation, Israel reportedly attacked a military facility in Iran’s Isfahan Province on April 18 (local time) but, on the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian made no indication that Israel was behind the attack. The situation has since calmed down, partly due to diplomatic efforts by the US and other countries concerned.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs (jiia.or.jp)
(Zeynep Alemdar – Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies) Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahiyan lost their lives in a helicopter crash on 19 May. Iran’s religious leader Ali Khamenei announced immediately after the news of the accident that there would be no disruption in state affairs. However, in the shadow of the Israeli-Iranian tensions in April and the ongoing Gaza War, this accident points to the need to monitor the Middle East even more closely.
Out of the Shadows: What is Next for the Iran-Israel Confrontation and the Region (edam.org.tr)
(Julie Norman – RUSI) On 20 May, the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) applied for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant, and for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar (head of Hamas in Gaza), Mohammed Deif (commander of Hamas’s military wing) and Ismail Haniyeh (head of Hamas’s political bureau, based in Qatar).
(Chimène Keitner – Lawfare) The ICC Office of the Prosecutor has requested arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders. What do these requests mean?
Understanding the ICC Prosecutor’s Request for Arrest Warrants | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
New Zealand
(Tim Hurdle – ASPI The Strategist) While Australian defence policy looks north, Kiwis focus west. New Zealand has always benefited from strategic isolation and the distance from international conflicts. But as global dangers increase, the reality of the geo-political situation is cutting through in New Zealand’s public discourse. With the active aggression of totalitarian powers like China and Russia causing disruption, New Zealand is waking up the threats they pose to the international order.
New Zealand is waking up to threats | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Pakistan
(Sushil Tanwar, – Observer Research Foundation) On 29 December 2023, General Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Army Chief was invited to address the National Agricultural Convention in Islamabad. It may be difficult to imagine a uniformed general imparting wisdom to the agricultural scientific community, but Pakistan is an exception. The Army is always at the centre stage of everything that happens in the country. To his credit, the General did not disappoint the willing audience and reiterated the commitment of the army to support the country’s struggling agriculture sector.
Fighting to farming: Pakistan military’s relentless quest for relevance (orfonline.org)
Philippines
(Don McLain Gill – Observer Research Foundation) As China pursues its expansionist ambitions in the greater South China Sea, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is working to enhance his country’s ability to exercise its sovereignty and sovereign rights. Towards this end, Manila is expanding its strategic options through robust external partnerships and national policy recalibrations to secure its lawful waters in what it calls the West Philippine Sea. There are concerns, however, about whether this strategy can be sustained in the long term given two possible scenarios: in the 2028 Philippines election, the rise to the presidency of Sara Duterte, current Vice President and daughter of Marcos Jr.’s predecessor; and later this year in the United States, an electoral victory for Donald Trump. Given China’s proclivity to exploit any inconsistencies in Manila’s approach, the government of Marcos Jr. must lay the groundwork for continuity in the Philippines’ maritime security strategy and persist in a path of economic and defence self-reliance.
A Nuanced Look at Manila’s Contemporary West Philippine Sea Strategy (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Harsh V. Pant, Ankit K – Observer Research Foundation) While the odds of any tactical nuclear strike by Russia remain low at present, Moscow’s nuclear signalling has set a dangerous precedent.
The risks of Russia’s nuclear posturing (orfonline.org)
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian propagandists believe that new Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov’s ultimate loyalty to Putin and absence of corruption scandals puts him in a prime position to accomplish the tasks set before him. Putin’s move to reorganize his cabinet demonstrates a shift in the establishment and a likely preparation for additional military projects. Moscow is expanding its military presence in other countries apart from Ukraine–most notably in Africa—in part to demonstrate its power and influence to the West.
New Russian Defense Minister’s Tasks Extend Beyond Ukraine – Jamestown
South Africa
(Christopher Vandome – Chatham House) South Africa’s 29 May election has been tipped as the most important since the first democratic poll in 1994 and an important inflection point. Most polls have indicated that the ruling ANC will lose its majority but retain a leading role in national government and most of the provinces.
Taiwan
(Rush Doshi and David Sacks – Council on Foreign Relations) In his inaugural address, Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te signaled broad continuity on cross-strait issues. China, however, is likely to respond with increased pressure.
Taiwan – China
(Shingo Ito – Japan Institute of International Affairs) In April 2023, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated a trade barrier investigation in response to Taiwan’s import restrictions on China. Based on the results, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council of China has been applying retaliatory measures against Taiwan as of January 1, 2024.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs (jiia.or.jp)
Turkey – European Union
(Sinem Adar, Yaşar Aydın, Cengiz Günay, Günter Seufert – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) The AKP leadership’s diaspora policy has created tensions between Turkey and European countries. Turkey’s gradual slide into authoritarianism, Islam’s steady expansion into public life and the increasing divergence between the foreign and security policies of Turkey and the EU have deepened the mistrust in relations between that country and the Union. Concerns abound about Ankara’s “long-arm” influence and the loyalties of Turkish migrants and their foreign-born children to their countries of residence. Meanwhile, the mainstreaming of anti-migration and anti-Islam sentiments in European countries has led to a conflation between Ankara’s ambitions and the diaspora’s attitudes and demands in the public discourse. While it is crucial not to overstate the AKP’s ability to mobilise the diaspora, the genuine grievances of individuals with a migration background should be taken seriously. At the same time, European governments should continue to advocate the greater independence of mosque communities from Turkey’s influence in order to maintain a balanced diaspora landscape.
UK
(Bronwen Maddox – Chatham House) Rishi Sunak’s choice of a 4 July general election appears to have been driven by his judgement that economic news on inflation and interest rates is as good as it is going to get. Yet it was striking how much he emphasised the dark and ‘dangerous’ world environment that is the backdrop to these polls. His words accurately capture many people’s mood of fear in times of great uncertainty. One effect will be to thrust foreign policy further forward in this election than it would normally be.
An election for ‘dangerous times’ | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian Cossack societies have played a growing role in preparing the next generation of Ukrainians for military service since 2014 by teaching children combat skills. Cossack culture and military service have a long-standing relationship in Ukraine, with military formations and soldiers regularly invoking Cossack imagery. Ukrainian Cossack organizations have been a potent contributor to Ukraine’s defense in organizing resistance without much government aid or direction.
Cossacks Provide a Source of Strength for Ukraine – Jamestown
USA
(Kayla M. Williams, Marek N. Posard, Ryan Haberman, Samantha Matthews, Samantha Ryan – RAND Corporation) A resilient workforce is essential to the U.S. military’s readiness and effectiveness. Resilience varies, but a common theme among definitions includes the ability to adapt to challenging circumstances.
Innovative Approaches to Enhancing Workforce Resilience in U.S. Space Command | RAND
(John Tefft, Charles P. Ries, William Courtney – RAND Corporation) Everyone entering the State Department through the flag-draped C Street entrance passes by marble plaques recording the names of 321 Foreign Service officers who died in the service of the United States. They perished in Iraq, Afghanistan, Nairobi, Beirut, Namibia, Vietnam, Bosnia, Cyprus, Benghazi, and many other places.
100 Years Later, U.S. Foreign Service Is Still on the Front Lines of Diplomacy | RAND
USA – Israel
(Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) A generational divide in the US is pushing Biden towards pressuring Tel-Aviv. But the ICC’s intervention brings pressure from the right. The president must stay focused on bringing peace to Gaza and the region.
USA – Kenya – Africa
(Fergus Kell – Chatham House) Kenyan President William Ruto’s arrival in Washington on 22 May ends a historic drought. No African leader has made a state visit to the US since John Kufuor of Ghana in 2008 – three times longer than the previous record gap, but a period that has also seen three US Africa Strategies (2012, 2018 and 2022) and two US–Africa Leaders’ Summits (2014 and 2022).
(Sibi Nyaoga and Alexander Tripp – Atlantic Council) Kenyan President William Ruto’s arrival today for his state visit to Washington symbolizes much more than the sixtieth anniversary of US-Kenya diplomatic relations. For the United States, this visit is a chance to reaffirm ties with one of its oldest and most trusted partners in Africa and to reset wider regional relations. Ruto is the first African head of state to be hosted for a state visit since 2008. For Kenya, the visit offers an important opportunity to solidify a partnership that could benefit the country’s foreign policy ambitions and strong-but-growing economy.
Ruto’s state visit to the White House is overdue. So is Biden’s visit to Africa. – Atlantic Council
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
