LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Council on Foreign Relations) Watermarking is often discussed as a solution to the problems posed by AI-generated content. However, watermarking is inadequate without other methods of detecting and sorting out AI-generated content.
Beyond Watermarks: Content Integrity Through Tiered Defense | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
ASEAN – Myanmar
(Cchavi Vasisht – Vivekananda International Foundation) Myanmar military on 01 February 2021 overthrew the democratically elected government and announced a state of emergency in the country. ASEAN as a regional organisation soon responded to the crisis that surfaced in 2021.
Bay of Bengal
(Abhijit Singh – Observer Research Foundation) A paper examines security collaboration in the Bay of Bengal. It argues that despite increased cooperation in the maritime domain, the security perceptions of Bay states differ significantly, arising primarily from disagreements associated with China’s presence in the region. Crucially, the Bay states are wary of being seen as siding with India to counterbalance China. Even in nontraditional security areas where cooperation is readily possible, Bay states prioritise different issues, leading to limited collaboration focused on a narrow set of common goals.
Maritime Security in the Bay of Bengal: Obstacles and Opportunities (orfonline.org)
China – South China Sea
(Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) Recent reports on China’s floating nuclear reactor project have resurfaced, fuelling concerns regarding further militarisation of the already tenuous South China Sea waters.
Implications of China’s floating nuclear power plants in the South China Sea (orfonline.org)
China – Taiwan
(Kalpit A Mankikar, Satyam Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Chinese strategist Sun Tzu argued that war must be waged through deception. In his calculations, it was important for states to bait and irritate the enemy, and create differences in opposition unity with an aim to weaken the rival.[i] As the inauguration of President elect Lai Ching-te nears, which is scheduled to take place on May 20, Sun Tzu’s successors are drawing lessons from the stratagems of the past.
China threat spurs Taiwan’s space ambitions (orfonline.org)
Georgia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Protests intensified in Georgia after the parliament approved the second reading of the reintroduced Russian-style “foreign agents” law, as police arrested dozens of protesters and several opposition leaders were beaten by unknown assailants. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze refused to visit the United States after Washington warned of the need for additional discussions about the controversial law before its third reading. The European Union has warned the Georgian Dream government about the serious consequences of using force against the opposition, including possibly canceling the visa-free regime and compromising the country’s candidate status.
Georgians Fight for Their European Dream – Jamestown
(Alexander Atasuntsev – Carnegie Politika) Georgian Dream, which until recently looked certain to win another victory in this year’s elections, now risks repeating last year’s mistake—only this time, the stakes are higher.
India
(Heena Samant – Vivekananda International Foundation) When Cape Town in South Africa faced a severe water crisis in 2018, it was predicted that soon many metropolitan cities across the globe would face the same fate. Unfortunately, this prediction came true for India as its third most populous city of Bengaluru has been facing the worst possible potable water crisis in its history since February 2024.
Israel
(Shay Shabtai – BESA Center) In the wake of the massive intelligence failure of October 7, fundamental changes will have to be made to Israeli national security doctrine. The intelligence community is obliged to improve its early warning capabilities – not merely in an attempt to prevent another great failure of the kind that might occur once in 50 years, but to improve its ability to contribute to the ongoing security effort. Israeli intelligence committed seven “sins” in the lead-up to October 7 that will have to be examined closely if the required changes are to be put in place. Those “sins” are politicization, certainty, preoccupation with cyber, targeting, professionalism, understanding, and risk management.
The “Seven Sins” of Intelligence: A Basis for Discussion (besacenter.org)
Middle East and the Gulf
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) On May 7, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a scathing statement as the Israeli military targeted the Palestinian city of Rafah, now known as the last, relatively “safe” refuge for Gaza’s people. The Saudi statement highlighted the massive destruction being inflicted by the “Israeli war machine”, and, going a step further, labelled Israeli actions as “genocide” – for the first time ever.
What’s Behind Saudi Arabia’s Silence On Gaza? An Image Makeover (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Nikolai Petrov, Ben Noble – Chatham House) The next six years will show whether Putin is willing to allow technocrats outside his personal sphere to take over the system he created.
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia employs various tools to influence people’s minds domestically and internationally, from “positive propaganda” to intricate “information operations.”. For a long time, the Kremlin’s primary propaganda narrative has been to instill the notion that truth is subjective or non-existent. The core methods of such operations to achieve Moscow’s goals of destabilization include spreading disinformation, manipulating ideas and conclusions, exacerbating existing societal conflicts, and discrediting democratic societies’ fundamental values and institutions. The fusion of cynicism and ideology has given rise to a distinct Russian phenomenon of “ideological cynicism.”. Kremlin propaganda capitalizes on contradictions within Western countries and between governments as well as politicians’ denial of real-life problems to sow discord and exacerbate societal polarization. “Ideologies for export” have emerged as the most potent form of “information operation,” yet they can be countered through exposure, refutation, and showing the Kremlin’s true position on any particular issue. By identifying the main strategies Moscow relies on, the West can begin crafting more effective methods for countering Russian influence operations and diminish any global support for the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.
Propaganda and ‘Active Measures’ in Russian Information Operations – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin began his new presidential term by holding a week of events to demonstrate his continued reign but has not received the blind following he anticipated. The Kremlin is playing up its nuclear capabilities as a response to the expansion of European support for Ukraine leading up to a high-level peace conference in Switzerland this summer. High-profile positions in the Kremlin have been switched, with Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister, Andrei Belousov as defense minister, and Sergei Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as secretary of the Russian Security Council.
Week of Ceremonies Marks Wobbly Start for Putin’s New Presidential Term – Jamestown
Serbia – Russia – China
(Janusz Bugajski – The Jamestown Foundation) Serbia’s new government is bolstering its connections with Russia through the appointment of Kremlin-linked ministers. Belgrade is also expanding its economic and media links with China following the visit of Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. The Aleksandar Vučić administration continues to generate instability in the Western Balkans, and its policies are eliciting a firmer response from NATO.
Serbia Bolsters Connections With Russia and China – Jamestown
UK
(Bronwen Maddox, Olivia O’Sullivan – Chatham House) In just a week, there have been three major speeches on foreign policy from the government (the prime minister and foreign secretary) and the Labour opposition (the shadow foreign secretary). Such a focus on foreign affairs in an election year is rare and the vote, when it comes, will turn more than usual on these questions.
UK – Rwanda – Global South
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) When Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was elected in late 2022, he vowed to “stop the boats”. He was referring to the forced migrants who enter the United Kingdom (UK) using illegal, dangerous, and often unnecessary methods, primarily by boat. Consequently, on April 22, a law was passed by the British Parliament that permits any illegal asylum applicants to be deported to East African country Rwanda and, then be barred from ever entering the country again.
Offshore migration services: A slippery slope for the Global South (orfonline.org)
USA
(Joseph Webster – Atlantic Council) California is the country’s largest and most mature solar market, but it’s also changing in important ways. On April 25, California marked a major milestone, as it became the first state to deploy 10 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage capacity. This large-scale deployment of lithium-ion storage batteries is leading to lower solar “curtailment,” or when electricity generation is suppressed due to price signals or physical oversupply. Curtailment is a problem because it means solar power stations, for example, are producing less electricity than they could, contributing less to the overall energy mix than they otherwise might.
California’s battery boom is a case study for the energy transition – Atlantic Council
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
