LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Armed Conflict / International Law
(Chatham House) States have often relied on each other’s support to wage wars. But, as military technology advances, contemporary armed conflicts are increasingly characterized by complex patterns of cooperation involving states, international organizations and non-state armed groups. These patterns make it difficult to identify who among the cooperating partners qualifies as a party to conflict – referred to in this research paper as co-parties. But that status has significant legal consequences in the regulation of armed conflict. The need for clarity around co-party status has therefore never been greater. This research paper aims to provide a roadmap to establish who is party to an armed conflict and the legal implications of that finding. The paper draws on illustrative examples from both recent and current conflicts to analyse what co-party status means and how parties to armed conflicts are identified as a matter of international law.
AUKUS
(Thomas Corel – RUSI) Trump’s notoriously transactional attitude, unaccommodating ‘America First’ doctrine and political eccentricity could well torpedo the multi-billion-dollar AUKUS security pact if not for prudent UK-Australian governance, bolder strategic commitments, and pragmatic, forward-thinking relations.
Can AUKUS Survive a Second Trump Administration? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Brazil
(Council on Foreign Relations) Brazil plays a pivotal role on the global stage as a top ten economy, a leading democracy, and the dominant steward of the Amazon. A founding member of the BRICS, the country holds the 2024 G20 presidency and will host the United Nations climate summit in 2025. This symposium examines Brazil’s current political, economic, and social opportunities and challenges, its evolving role in the world, and the decisive role it could play in combatting climate change.
Brazil and the World | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Brunei
(Gordon Arthur – Defense News) Brunei, a small Southeast Asian sultanate bordered by Malaysia, is significantly raising its 2024 defense budget amid concerns over how to protect its territory. In the coming fiscal year, the government has allotted 796.3 million Brunei dollars (U.S. $594 million) for defense. This represents a 31.6% jump over last year’s allocation of 605.2 million Brunei dollars.
Brunei defense budget surges by 32%, with focus on intel, targeting (defensenews.com)
China
(Hung Tran – Atlantic Council) At the opening of China’s fourteenth National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5th 2024, Premier Li Quang delivered his first Government Work Report, setting the key economic and social policies and targets for this year. The NPC meeting will be followed by that of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Together those meetings constitute the “Two Sessions”—an important annual event where political and policy decisions made earlier by the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are formally endorsed and publicly announced.
Unpacking China’s 2024 growth target and economic agenda – Atlantic Council
China – USA
(Seth G. Jones and Alexander Palmer – Center for Strategic & International Studies) China’s defense industrial base is operating on a wartime footing, while the U.S. defense industrial base is largely operating on a peacetime footing. Overall, the U.S. defense industrial ecosystem lacks the capacity, responsiveness, flexibility, and surge capability to meet the U.S. military’s production and warfighting needs. Unless there are urgent changes, the United States risks weakening deterrence and undermining its warfighting capabilities. China is heavily investing in munitions and acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the United States. China is also the world’s largest shipbuilder and has a shipbuilding capacity that is roughly 230 times larger than the United States. One of China’s large shipyards, such as Jiangnan Shipyard, has more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined.
China Outpacing U.S. Defense Industrial Base (csis.org)
NATO
(Lotje Boswinkel – RUSI) The strategic conversation on how to ‘Trump-proof’ NATO should focus not on a budget target but on the roles and responsibilities European allies need to fulfil to close the Alliance’s emerging deterrence and commitment gaps. When focusing on the ends rather than the means, Europeans may find that 2% is not enough.
Trump-Proofing NATO: 2% Won’t Cut It | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Near East
1 – (Marcy Grossman – Atlantic Council) International Women’s Day is an annual event on March 8 that recognizes and honors the achievements of women worldwide. It is an occasion to reflect on progress made, acknowledge the challenges that persist, and inspire collective action to create a more equitable world. It is also a call to address systemic barriers, empower women, and foster a world where women’s voices are heard and their rights are fully realized.
While wars rage on, women wage peace in the Middle East – Atlantic Council
2 – (Mark F. Cancian – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The United States recently airdropped thousands of packaged meals to relieve suffering in Gaza―38,000 on March 1 and 36,800 on March 4. It is an important gesture that will help a few Gazans and signal to the others that they are not forgotten. However, to feed the entire population, the United States and its allies would need to increase these daily deliveries by a factor of 90. That’s not remotely practical. The only solution is delivery by truck, but that requires a degree of cooperation by the parties involved—Israel, the United States, Hamas, and Egypt—that has been elusive.
Air Supplies to Gaza: Commendable Political Theater but No Long-Term Solution (csis.org)
3 – (Bryant Harris and Leo Shane III – Defense News) The U.S. military will establish a temporary port in the Gaza Strip to deliver humanitarian aid to starving Palestinians, while continuing to send weapons to Israel, President Joe Biden confirmed in his State of the Union address Thursday. “No U.S. boots will be on the ground,” Biden said. “A temporary pier will enable a massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day. And Israel must also do its part. Israel must allow more aid into Gaza and ensure that humanitarian workers aren’t caught in the cross fire.
Biden outlines military plans to build port in Gaza for aid (defensenews.com)
Red Sea
(Sean Monaghan, Michael Darrah, Eskil Jakobsen, and Otto Svendsen – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Internet connectivity between parts of Asia, Africa, and Europe suddenly slowed on February 24 when three undersea cables were damaged in the Red Sea. This caused “a significant impact on communication networks in the Middle East,” according to Hong Kong telecoms company HGC Global Communications. The Red Sea is a choke point for global maritime trade—a fact Yemen’s Houthi rebels have taken advantage of by targeting global shipping with missile attacks in recent months. But the sea is also an internet and telecommunications bottleneck. An estimated 90 percent of communications between Europe and Asia and 17 percent of global internet traffic traverse cables under the 14-mile-wide Bab al Mandab Strait.
Red Sea Cable Damage Reveals Soft Underbelly of Global Economy (csis.org)
Russia
1 – (Thomas Graham – Council on Foreign Relations) This month’s vote will be the first conducted while Russia is involved in a major war, and Vladimir Putin is counting on a strong show of national unity and highlighting support in occupied Ukraine.
Why Russia’s Election Matters to Putin | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
2 – (Chatham House) Through its war against Ukraine and geopolitical revisionism in the Black Sea, Russia seeks to establish uncontested hegemony and project influence beyond its neighbourhood and into the Western Balkans, South Caucasus, Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. This would allow Russia to challenge European security from multiple positions.
Space
(Sebastian Sprenger – Defense News) Mining rare minerals on the moon could mark a new area of competition in space, though it’s too early tell whether the prospect would entail military involvement, according to the U.K.’s top military officer for space. A scenario of nations jumping on lunar mining to refill their dried-up, terrestrial stocks has the potential for gray zone conflict, the kind of amorphous contest that transcends traditional notions of two warring parties shooting at each other, Air Vice-Marshal Paul Godfrey said at the Space Comm Expo trade show here.
UK space chief flags moon mining as next conflict ‘gray zone’ (defensenews.com)
USA
(Atlantic Council) “We will not bow down.” US President Joe Biden began his State of the Union address on Thursday with a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin—and to Congress, urging those assembled in the House chamber to pass a bipartisan security bill to help Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Inverting the usual structure of such speeches, which tend to lead with domestic affairs, Biden spoke about NATO enlargement and the world-historical moment. He also detailed a new plan to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, tackled the thorny problem of illegal immigration, defended his economic record, and more.
World Trade Organization
(Council of Councils) The World Trade Organization (WTO) held its thirteenth ministerial conference (MC13) last week in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Five CoC experts assess the ministerial conference’s failure to break the deadlock on new initiatives—such as agricultural trade, fisheries subsidies, and new rules for digital trade—and how, given great power tensions and growing protectionism, smaller joint initiatives could be the future of world trade.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
