LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Amazon
(Juan Pablo Bickel – IISS) Recent diplomatic efforts by South American states have put the protection of the Amazon rainforest on the global agenda, including by increasing financial commitments for climate-mitigation initiatives. However, current international climate-action frameworks must do more to ensure that these initiatives avoid exacerbating insecurity and armed conflict in states affected by climate change. One possible route is to provide standardised guidance on incorporating a ‘conflict-sensitive’ approach into climate-action projects and policies. With Amazonian countries set to lead key climate and economic fora in 2024 and 2025, this represents an opportunity for them to shape global climate-action architecture to achieve sustainable peace in the region.
‘Do no harm’: towards sustainable climate action in the Amazon (iiss.org)
Artificial Intelligence & Innovative Technologies (Opportunities, Risks, Security, Governance)
(Michelle Mormont – WEF) The World Economic Forum announces this year’s 100 companies joining its Technology Pioneers Community as part of the 2024 cohort. These companies are applying new advances in AI to develop industry solutions, including breakthrough innovations in clean energy, healthcare, biotech, space and neurotechnology. The 2024 Technology Pioneers cohort has particularly strong representation from the largest entrepreneurship ecosystems in the world: the United States and China, followed by India, which this year has more start-ups than ever before.
Meet 2024’s technology pioneers of the World Economic Forum | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Matt Field – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Without proper guardrails in place, experts and governments worry, artificial intelligence (AI) could make it easier for more people to do harm with biology. Perhaps advanced chatbots could help devise a biological attack plan, or they could de-skill the process of making a pathogen to the point at which many could do it. Maybe an AI could help develop new toxins. One critical chokepoint to preventing this misuse, experts say, is the synthetic gene industry. Numerous companies have emerged in recent years to fulfill orders for synthetic DNA. Once difficult to make, the genetic blueprint for life can now be purchased online. And while synthetic genetic sequences have many uses in medicine, the life sciences, and other fields, they could also be useful in a less desirable area: bioweapons.
Asia – Pacific
(Graeme Dobell – ASPI The Strategist) Indo-Pacific alliances and partnerships are a key advantage of the United States in competing with China.
Building the Indo-Pacific defence industry base | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(IISS) New challenges are emerging in the regional security landscape. The conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue to reverberate. High-risk tactics that fall below the threshold of conflict are heightening tensions and testing traditional deterrence capabilities and strategies. Emerging and disruptive technologies are changing how militaries operate and are altering escalation dynamics. Natural disasters and climate change further challenge national and regional humanitarian response infrastructure.
Re-imagining Solutions for Regional Stability (iiss.org)
(IISS) Maritime law enforcement agencies are playing an increasingly central geopolitical role in the Asia-Pacific. Presence operations to underline maritime claims and enforce domestic and international laws against a variety of maritime security challenges have brought these agencies into regular and frequent contact with one another. Yet confidence-building mechanisms among them are less developed than among their military counterparts.
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 | Special Session 4: Maritime Law Enforcement and Confidence Building
Australia
(Chris Douglas – ASPI The Strategist) The Australian Liberal-National opposition’s proposal to build nuclear power stations on the sites of old coal-fired plants is misguided. The policy would perpetuate Australia’s concentration of electricity generation and worsen our vulnerability to air and missile attack.
(Andrew Horton – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s digital sovereignty is at risk of disaster, held hostage by a network of vulnerable subsea cables. Our complacent reliance on these underwater lifelines is a reckless gamble with our economic, social and national security. While the government and telecommunications industry tout ongoing efforts to enhance cable security, their measures are mere stopgaps, inadequate to address the magnitude of the looming crisis.
China
(Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist) Markets for critical minerals are no longer shaping up to be the next components of the global economy to be dominated by China. They already are. While Western nations were sleeping, China built vertically integrated supply chains for several critical minerals vital to the energy transition and high technology applications, including defence equipment.
China’s control and coercion in critical minerals | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(IISS) In 2023, China launched its Global Security Initiative which highlighted the need to address contemporary security challenges through various initiatives, norms and partnerships. China is actively engaged in multilateral initiatives, military exercises with regional partners, and pursuing new forms of security cooperation. China has also sought to engage more in conflict mediation in different parts of the world. In this session China will outline its strategy for global security, highlighting also the progress of China’s policy initiatives for regional security in the Asia-Pacific.
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 | Plenary Session 5: China’s Approach to Global Security
China – Philippines
(Susannah Patton – Lowy The Interpreter) The Second Thomas Shoal, within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, is the most dangerous flashpoint in the South China Sea. China has ratcheted up pressure at sea to the point that the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces argues China’s behaviour should no longer be referred to as “grey zone”, but “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive”.
Unpacking China’s propaganda narratives against the Philippines | Lowy Institute
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Sadof Alexander and Laura Bulbena Janer – World Resources Institute) Bogotá, Colombia is in the throes of a water crisis. After several months of dry weather caused by El Niño, the Chingaza reservoir system, which provides 70% of Bogotá’s water, reached its lowest level in history. The city’s over 8 million residents are now rationing water, with each neighborhood facing a 24-hour water shut-off three times per month. People are encouraged to shower for less than three minutes, and households are facing fines of up to $300 if they go over their monthly water allotment. Rationing measures will likely remain in place through October 2024, or until there is enough rainfall to course correct.
As Cities Face Water Shortages, Nature Offers Solutions | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
European Union
(Chatham House) The 2024 European parliamentary elections serve as a crucial juncture in the European Union’s trajectory. As Europe confronts an unprecedented security threat at its borders from an imperialist Russia, the need for strategic leadership is more pronounced than ever. Moreover, economic sluggishness, the perennial challenges and opportunities of migration and the rise of far-right sentiment across the continent, underscore the urgency of addressing societal fractures and fostering cohesion within the Union.
Beyond the ballot: Implications of the 2024 European elections (chathamhouse.org)
(Nadia Calvino – ASPI The Strategist) This month, hundreds of millions of voters will head to the polls for the European Parliament elections, and many will ask what the European Union has done for them since the last election, in 2019.
What the EU has done for us | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Georgia – China – Russia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) The Georgian Dream government has announced that a Chinese-Singaporean consortium dominated by the Chinese state won the tender for the construction and management of the strategic Anaklia deep-sea port. The port could drastically change the geoeconomic and geopolitical situation in the region, providing China more economic power and influence and turning Tbilisi closer to Moscow through Beijing’s alliance with the Kremlin. Beijing is becoming Tbilisi’s primary strategic partner and is significantly strengthening its position in the South Caucasus, while Western influence, previously a priority partner against Russian dominance, is waning.
Georgia’s Anaklia Deep-Water Port Becomes Chinese Geopolitical Project – Jamestown
India
(David Lubin – Chatham House) However bruised he has been by the election result, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will need to think hard now about the best path to Viksit Bharat, or ‘Developed India’. This is the government’s centennial goal for the republic, which sets 2047 as the year by which the country will have shaken off its status as an emerging economy.
(Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) The surprise result of India’s election has reaffirmed the unpredictable nature of Indian politics. Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured a third term, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to achieve outright parliamentary majority, falling well-short of its 370 target (400 with coalition partners) in the 543-seat lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha). Given Modi’s central role as the face of the party during the election, the disappointing result has damaged the Modi brand.
(Lisa Singh – Lowy The Interpreter) This year is monumental for democratic elections around the world. But India’s election is what middle and global powers have been fixated on. The largest ever democratic exercise saw more than 642 million participants voting over a six-week period, to elect 543 MPs to the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament). Indian voters have defied predictions, challenging the notion that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would continue its dominance. Securing 240 seats on its own, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is set to form government once again, but only with the support of its coalition partners in the NDA (National Democratic Alliance). This positions Modi as only the second Indian leader to start a third consecutive term, following in the footsteps of India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
Modi 3.0: What India’s election means for Australia and the world | Lowy Institute
(Rafiq Dossani – RAND Corporation) In the recent India election, the ruling party performed worse than generally expected, losing its majority for the first time since 2014. Still, it is likely to return to power with enough seats among its alliance partner to earn a majority. While this sounds like a recipe for political instability, it need not be so.
India Election Results—Continuity, with Some Welcome Surprises | RAND
Indian and Pacific Oceans
(IISS) The Indian and Pacific Oceans face a variety of similar and shared security challenges, from climate change to illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, energy and supply chain vulnerabilities along sea lines of communication, and rising geopolitical tensions. While the two regions have distinct multilateral organisations such as ASEAN, IORA, and the PIF, their reach is limited. It remains unclear if minilaterals such as the Quad and their smaller membership can promote inter-regional cooperation.
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 | Plenary Session 6: Connecting Indian Ocean and Pacific Security
Japan
(Alan Wm. Wolff – Peterson Institute for International Economics) The Global Trade Order (GTO) has changed dramatically since 2016 as President Obama was ending his second term as American president. Essential security interests now dominate US international economic policy. They are at the heart of a self-centered US trade policy. The new policy is very much shaped by challenges posed by China and by a retrenchment in US international economic policy in reaction to a more globalized world. Japan’s international economic policy interests require consequent adjustments in its policies.
Kosovo
(Bojana Zorić, Ilir Deda – European Union Institute for Security Studies) The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape, further elevating tensions in the Western Balkans. Russia’s increased meddling has worsened the region’s security situation. Western countries have repeatedly warned about various tools that Russia employs to destabilise the region, aiming to distract the West from providing financial and military aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are rising, secessionist threats persist in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while electoral victories by right-wing nationalist forces in North Macedonia have already sparked friction with the EU and its Member States. As NATO boosts its military presence in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the EU and the United States are facing pivotal elections, against a backdrop of multiple global crises.
Lebanon
(Christina Bouri – Council on Foreign Relations) Already hobbled by economic struggles, Lebanon now faces the prospect of war as the militant group and political party Hezbollah clashes with Israel in apparent support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Libya
(Frederic Wehrey – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Libya’s climate-vulnerable regions of Jabal Nafusa, Fezzan, and Jabal Akhdar underscore the important role played by civil society and municipalities in protecting marginalized communities.
Russia – Ukraine
(Joseph S. Nye – ASPI The Strategist) Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. Though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up reasonably well. When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he envisaged a quick seizure of the capital, Kyiv, and a change of government, much like what the Soviets did in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. But the war is still raging, and no one knows when or how it will end.
Old and new lessons from the Ukraine War | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s term technically expired in May, but the constitution and other laws allow him to continue until elections can be held, leading the Kremlin to speculate about Zelenskyy’s status and Ukraine’s presidency. Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to impose his “peace” terms and needs to deal with a legitimate Ukrainian president. Moscow would accept a presidential successor designated by Ukrainian state institutions to hold talks and eventually sign documents. Moscow aims to coerce Zelenskyy into some semblance of negotiations under military duress, which could signify an essential acceptance of territorial losses, compromise his hero status in Ukraine, and generate further instability in the country.
The Kremlin Speculates on Zelenskyy’s Constitutional Status – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Since February 2022, the number of parishes and other religious institutions in Ukraine has risen by almost 10 percent, with most growth occurring in Catholic and Protestant denominations. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate has lost more than 1,000 parishes and even more believers to the autocephalous Orthodox Church of Ukraine and has become a shell of its former self. Both these trends are reducing still further the Kremlin’s ability to use the Moscow church in Ukraine to expand Putin’s “Russian world” and highlight Ukraine’s shift to the West in religious as well as political terms.
Religious Life On the Rise in Ukraine, With Enormous Consequences for Kyiv and Moscow – Jamestown
(Darya Dolzikova – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) In April, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia may be planning to restart at least one of the six reactors at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which Russia has occupied since March 2022. The reporting raised concerns about the safety of the plant, were such a decision to be taken. Then on May 28, Aleksey Likhachev, the head of Russia’s state-owned nuclear enterprise, Rosatom, stated that the restarting of the ZNPP would be conditional on guarantees of the facility’s safety, adding that “time will tell” how the requisite safety conditions will be met and that they could be achieved through the retreat of the front line “as far as possible” from the ZNPP.
Ukraine – China
(Nicholas Khoo – Lowy The Interpreter) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise appearance last weekend at the annual Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, run by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Zelenskyy had a message that the Chinese delegation was not expecting.
Ukraine – European Union
(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Wars and the need to finance them have historically driven national identities and formed the modern states of Europe.1 Russia’s war in Ukraine poses a crisis that could now push Europe to rapidly integrate its finances and institutions to help secure a Ukrainian victory by issuing an initial €100 billion in common European defense bonds, as proposed by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia and President Emmanuel Macron of France.
The EU should issue common European defense bonds for Ukraine now | PIIE
USA
(Wendy Edelberg, Olivia Howard, and Tara Watson – Brookings) Immigrants benefit the aggregate economy and the federal budget, but recently arrived immigrants without college degrees can pose short-term fiscal challenges to states and localities. This analysis identifies where recent non-college immigrants are living and how the geographic distribution has changed since before the pandemic. The federal government could help to redistribute the economic benefits of immigration to communities that bear near-term costs through transparent education and health funding channels.
Which states need support in welcoming new immigrants? | Brookings
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
