COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(John Coyne and Ian Satchwell – ASPI The Strategist) While Australia and its critical-minerals partners agree that supply-chain diversity, security and sustainability are essential, inconsistent national policies continue to inhibit the development of the end-to-end supply chains they seek. In the dynamic landscape of at-risk supply chains, harmonising national policies has emerged as a key factor for achieving shared goals.
Australia – AUKUS
(Luke Gosling – ASPI The Strategist) Elevated to a military science during the Cold War, deterrence is a relatively new task for the Australian Defence Force. Traditionally, Australia’s armed forces have lacked the mass, range, lethality and ability to project force to deter a significant military power, except as part of coalition operations. But the Defence Strategic Review of 2023 recommended tasking the ADF with a deterrent role.
The role of AUKUS in Australia’s deterrence strategy | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
BRICS – SDGs
(Soumya Bhowmick – Observer Research Foundation) The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), endorsed by the UN General Assembly in 2015, stand as a comprehensive blueprint to tackle global challenges ranging from poverty to climate change. Within this context, the BRICS nations have been championing a holistic implementation of the SDGs, recognising the imperative of fostering collective well-being amid these contemporary challenges.
Navigating PostPandemic Recovery: BRICS and the SDGs (orfonline.org)
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Eric Mackres, Gorka Zubicaray and Bina Shetty – World Resources Institute) It isn’t just your perception that extreme heat is happening more and more. As a result of climate change, the number of extreme heat events has accelerated around the world. The past eight years were the hottest on record. Millions of people are experiencing life-threatening temperatures, from Mecca to India to Latin America. And it is expected to worsen. Indeed, heat is the deadliest disaster most years, killing an average of 490,000 people globally and causing severe health problems for many more. Deaths from heat are expected to grow by 50% by 2050, according to the World Health Organization. But the impact of heat on health isn’t equitably distributed — around the world or within our communities. Already vulnerable populations are at the greatest risk.
As the Earth Gets Hotter, Can Infrastructure Cool Cities? | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Gim Huay Neo, Yvonne Zhou – World Economic Forum) The building value chain is responsible for 37% of total carbon emissions globally, involving multiple harder-to-abate sectors and needs to accelerate green transition from now on. The green transition of the building value chain can unlock $1.8 trillion in market opportunities globally according to the World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group, as well as significant social and environmental value. To fully seize the opportunities presented by the green transition of the building sectors, stakeholders across the value chain should adopt a strategic and collaborative approach, especially around standard setting, flagship development, policy design and innovation.
The building sector is key to the fight against climate change | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
European Union – China
(Sarah Tzinieris – Lawfare) As China ramps up its support for Russia’s ongoing military campaign against Ukraine, the EU has emboldened its sanctions targeting Beijing. In late February, the EU sanctioned companies in mainland China for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the first time—blacklisting four entities for supplying critical dual-use items to Russia. The EU’s 14th sanctions package against Russia—adopted by the EU on June 24—included an additional six mainland Chinese companies “directly supporting Russia’s military and industrial complex in its war of aggression against Ukraine.”
The EU’s Evolving China Sanctions Strategy | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
European Union – China – Russia
(Gunnar Wiegand, Natalie Sabanadze, Abigaël Vasselier – GMF) In May, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin chose Beijing for the first foreign visit after his re-inauguration. The meeting was Putin’s forty-third with China’s President Xi Jinping, who told his “best friend” that China would continue to provide an economic lifeline, political support and equipment needed for Russia to win in Ukraine.
European Union – Indo Pacific
(Max Bergmann and Christopher B. Johnstone – Center for Strategic & International Studies) U.S. engagement has been effective in aligning European perspectives and approaches to the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Although the shift is uneven across European capitals, the rising economic challenge posed by China is now a major focus of transatlantic discussions. However, the picture is less clear on defense and security issues, with little consensus or focus from Washington on how Europe should deepen its engagement with countries in the Indo-Pacific. This picture of unfocused engagement and occasional mixed messages begs the question: What security role should the United States seek for Europe in the Indo-Pacific? Can European partners make a meaningful contribution to deterrence and contingency response in the region, and if so, how?
Europe’s Security Role in the Indo-Pacific: Making It Meaningful (csis.org)
European Union – Moldova
(Laurențiu Pleșca – GMF) Moldova and Ukraine this week opened EU accession negotiations. The process is not solely technical but also deeply political, which means the pace of European integration might not always depend on progress made in the two countries.The process is not solely technical but also deeply political, which means the pace of European integration might not always depend on progress made in the two countries.
France
(François Heisbourg – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) On Sunday, France will hold a snap parliamentary election announced by President Emmanuel Macron after his party’s stunning defeat in the European Parliament elections. At the time of writing this blog on June 23, with the single exception of the cohesive National Rally, no political party looks set to maintain its current form.
France’s High-Stakes Election Showdown – Carnegie Europe (carnegieendowment.org)
Georgia
(Archil Sikharulidze – Observer Research Foundation) It has been 20 years since the Republic of Georgia changed. On 23 November 2003, a young pro-American politician Mikhail Saakashvili entered the State Parliament holding a single red rose in their hand, calling on the President, Eduard Shevardnadze, to resign. This marked the mere beginning of significant political, social, economic, military, and geopolitical shifts in the country as well as across the whole region. Saakashvili has by now been prosecuted and serves a sentence in jail. His political party, the United National Movement, is on the verge of collapse while the Opposition is dubious whether it can actually counter the ruling Georgian Dream in the upcoming parliamentary election without the immense support from abroad now. Seemingly, the ideas of the revolution remain forgotten by Georgia’s broader population, praised and reminded only by supporters of the same parties and their sympathizers from mainly the so-called pro-Western elites and some American/European agencies. These actors hope to bring back the “good old days” when Georgia was arguably pro-Western and democracy flourished. It is time to remember.
The Rose Revolution is over (orfonline.org)
Global Trade
(Richard Pomfret – East Asia Forum) Changes in US attitudes towards trade, including increasing tariffs and undermining the World Trade Organization (WTO), have threatened global trade. But major trading nations are striving to strengthen compliance and extend international trade law even without US collaboration. While the downgrading of the WTO makes resolving some trade issues difficult, the global economy can continue to grow with an expanded CPTPP and commitment from RCEP members and the European Union.
Filling the US-shaped hole in world trade | East Asia Forum
(East Asia Forum) Despite calls for inward economic strategies due to the perceived vulnerability of integrated supply chains, access to international markets has proven to be a form of insurance in times of crisis, responding quickly and efficiently to COVID-19 and energy trade disruptions. But the flexibility of global supply chains relies heavily on the rules of the WTO, which require updating to address issues in the digital economy and other areas that are presently insufficiently governed by global disciplines.
Unchaining global trade | East Asia Forum
G7 – Global South
(Harsh V. Pant, Angad Singh Brar – Observer Research Foundation) The Russia-China bond and the West’s sensitivity to its derivative security, energy, and economic risks were the main factors that shaped the outcomes of the G7 summit.
Apulia Onwards: An Era of Global South Interoperability (orfonline.org)
Haiti
(Diana Roy and Rocio Cara Labrador – Council on Foreign Relations) Once the wealthiest colony in the Americas, Haiti is now the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country, with more than half of its population living below the World Bank’s poverty line. Foreign intervention and debt, political instability, and natural disasters have long stymied development efforts in Haiti, but there are hopes a new prime minister could help stabilize governance. While the Joe Biden administration has ruled out sending U.S. troops to the island, it has pledged to provide financial support for a UN-authorized, Kenya-led multinational force to fight Haiti’s powerful gangs.
Haiti’s Troubled Path to Development | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Human Trafficking
(John Cotton Richmond – Atlantic Council) Common images of human trafficking often focus on pimps compelling their victims into commercial sexual exploitation or criminal networks targeting migrants seeking a better future. But what about when the trafficker is not an individual criminal, corporation, or cartel, but instead is a government? The United Nations (UN) estimated in 2022 that governments trafficking at least 3.9 million people on any given day. These victims of state-sanctioned human trafficking constitute 14 percent of today’s estimated modern slavery victims.
How to stop governments from trafficking people – Atlantic Council
Hungary – Belarus
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó recently visited Belarus to discuss expanding trade amid stringent EU sanctions, cooperating more closely on nuclear energy, and maintaining open lines of communication. Budapest is the only EU capital that recognizes the post-2020 political status quo in Minsk and remains willing to advance relations with the Lukashenka government. Hungarian officials claim that the failure of EU policy to prevent further authoritarianism in Belarus and limit Minsk’s military cooperation with Russia justifies their policies.
Hungary Defies EU Policy Toward Belarus – Jamestown
India – Bangladesh
(Harash V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) The inherent strength of India-Bangladesh relationship was once again in evidence as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, decided to visit New Delhi days after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The ease with which the top leadership in Delhi and Dhaka now interact and engage each other is a tribute to the manner in which Modi and Hasina have managed to build this important partnership over the last decade, often under very difficult circumstances. If Modi had to contend with the opposition at the state level in West Bengal, where the ruling party decided to veto the Teesta Pact, Hasina had to face the anti-India constituency in Bangladesh. Despite this, both leaders stood firm in their belief that building resilience in this partnership is important for not only bilaterally but also regionally.
Modi-Hasina Should Worry About China, But Not Too Much (orfonline.org)
Indonesia
(Shalhhakka Dimar Farrakhy, Muhammad Rafi Bakri – East Asia Forum) The high demand for housing is not being met in Indonesia due to a lack of supply. For Indonesian people, a house can only be a house if it is on the ground — not in a flat or apartment. This increases market demand for land and property, which drives prices to increase. But rising prices are not being matched by proportionate income increases.
Indonesia still searching for an answer to its housing crisis | East Asia Forum
Iran
(Anonymous – Stimson Center) Iran’s Council of Guardians again disqualified Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker, nuclear negotiator, and regime stalwart, from running in Iran’s June 28 presidential elections.
(Ray Takeyh – Council on Foreign Relations) The contest to replace Ebrahim Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash last month, is dominated by conservatives who have provided few signals of any major course change in the country’s regional and security policies.
Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Japan
(Yuichi Hosoya, Yuki Tatsumi, Chelsea Wells – Stimson Center) Late former prime minister Shinzo Abe revitalized Japan’s effort to play the role of a “bridge” between the East and West. Given the increasing importance of Global South in international community, Japan should consider launching an initiative like “FOIP 3.0” as an initiative to attract countries in the Global South which can share values and norms with liberal democracies.
Japan as a Member of the Defenders of the Liberal International Order • Stimson Center
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Nathan J. Brown – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Palestine seems to have come to a full stop. Its institutions have withered rather than evolving into a state. But Palestinians are still very much present—not merely as individuals but as a national community. Over the past half century, a sense of national identity has grown far stronger—and the tribulations suffered by Palestinians (including occupation and the failure of the Palestinian Authority, or PA) have actually made it stronger. But there is no state of Palestine now, and there is none on the horizon. Formal recognition of Palestine cheers those who hope for a state but cannot mask developments on the ground that move in the opposite direction. Perhaps things will change, but that is a task for the rising generation.
Palestinians Without Palestine? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Annika Ganzeveld, Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Katherine Wells, Kathryn Tyson, Grace Mappes, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Hardline candidate Amir Hossein Ghazi Zadeh Hashemi withdrew from the Iranian presidential election on June 26. Hashemi did not appear to have a serious chance at winning and withdrew to avoid splitting votes across too many hardline candidates.
Iran Update, June 26, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) A postwar plan for Gaza written by four Israeli academics has been circulating among leaders in Israel’s government and security establishment. Titled “From a murderous ideology to a moderate society: transforming and rebuilding Gaza after Hamas,” the 28-page paper argues that the core elements of the plan’s success are the total defeat of Hamas through loss of territory, loss of sovereignty, and public trials for Hamas leaders and those who carried out the October 7 atrocities in Israel. The authors, who teamed up in November, said that all members of Israel’s now-disbanded war cabinet had read the document.
Gaza ‘Day After’ Plan Circulating Among Israeli Leaders (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Iranian-backed terrorist groups in Iraq and Yemen launched fresh attacks on Israeli targets on June 25 and 26 as the prospect of a regional escalation continues to intensify.
Iranian Proxies in Iraq, Yemen Launch New Attacks on Israeli Targets (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Following a series of high-level meetings in Washington, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized the enduring bond between the United States and Israel in remarks on June 26. “In every family — and we consider the American people our family — disagreements may arise,” Gallant said, referencing recent tensions between Washington and Jerusalem. “Yet like all families, we discuss our disagreements in-house, and remain united.” That familial bond “reflects a simple truth: our nations are tied by shared interests and more importantly, values,” Gallant added.
Gallant Underscores U.S.-Israel Bond During Multi-Day Trip to Washington (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) A prominent gunrunner for Hamas and a missile specialist for Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) who doubled up as an employee for a leading humanitarian non-governmental organization (NGO) were eliminated in two separate Israeli Air Force strikes in Gaza on June 25.
Hamas Gunrunner, PIJ Missile Specialist Killed in Israeli Strikes on Gaza (fdd.org)
(Mohammed Salih – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Prominent Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr stole the spotlight on April 11 when the account Wazir al-Iraqi, his mouthpiece on X, revealed the formation of “al-Tayyar al-Waṭani al-Shi’i,” sparking extensive commentary about his plans to re-enter Iraq’s formal political process. While Sadr, an ambitious political and religious leader, seeks a significant position for himself and his group in Iraqi politics, his efforts will be constrained by diminishing trust among his former Kurdish and Sunni allies and the ongoing dilemma of dealing with Iran, Iraq’s influential eastern neighbor and ultimate power broker.
(David Schenker – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Nine months into the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the mid-intensity conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah is escalating. Israel is killing senior Hezbollah military commanders with greater frequency; Hezbollah is launching salvos progressively further south across the border. The rhetoric is intensifying as well. Last week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that “Israel should be afraid.” In the event of a war, he said, “no place will be safe from our missiles and drones.” Meanwhile, Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant is warning of a conflict on a “different scale” against Hezbollah.
Behind the US Plan to Prevent an All-Out Israel-Hezbollah War | The Washington Institute
(Akshaya Kumar – Lawfare) Investigative journalists have reported that at least two recent Israel Defense Forces air strikes in Gaza—one on a UN school in Nuseirat and the other on a refugee tent camp in Rafah—appear to have used U.S. weapons in ways that violate the laws of war. These reports have revived scrutiny around the legality of continued arms exports and spurred more groups’ calls to stop weapons transfers to Israel.
Continued Arms Exports to Israel in the Face of Constructive Notice | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
NATO
(Justin Katz – Breaking Defense) When the international community gathers in Washington next month for the NATO summit, the alliance’s next leader will likely remain mostly in the background as outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg caps off his decade-long tenure, according to analysts.
When NATO comes to DC, expect Mark Rutte to stay in the background: Analysts – Breaking Defense
(Javier Cantero – GMF) The alliance, long reliant solely on its member states for defense and deterrence, is now increasingly turning to its network of partnerships to respond to the increasing security threats on its eastern, northern, and southern flanks. The upcoming Washington summit is an opportunity to strengthen and expand this network, especially to address challenges on the southern flank. But for this to happen, NATO members need to devote more political will and military and financial resources to convince potential future partners of the benefits of cooperation.
Go South, NATO | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Anna Borshchevskaya – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On July 9-11, NATO will hold its latest summit at a key moment in its evolution. As the alliance turns seventy-five, Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to threaten global security, leading many to acknowledge that resolving the conflict requires looking beyond Ukraine. This includes putting the Middle East and neighboring regions front and center in NATO strategy, both at the Washington summit and beyond—a message that alliance officials have repeatedly emphasized in public and private. The question then becomes how best to counter Moscow in these regions while still engaging effectively with local partners. A good place to start is by focusing on three key issues: protecting maritime trade routes, securing critical infrastructure, and countering Russia’s narrative.
The NATO Summit Is Another Chance to Counter Russia in the “South” | The Washington Institute
New Caledonia
(Denise Fisher – Lowy The Interpreter) France’s action in transporting eight indigenous New Caledonian detainees to metropolitan France can only fan the flames of ethnic and political difference that have erupted into violence in recent weeks. It is the latest in a series of moves by France which, while applying French law, in fact undermines stability.
New Caledonia: France’s way or the Pacific way? | Lowy Institute
Northeast Asia
(Daniel Sneider – East Asia Forum) Russian President Vladimir Putin and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un have formed a comprehensive strategic partnership while the United States, South Korea and Japan work to deepen their alliance, echoing past alignments during the Cold War. Dynamics in the region are complex, with China uneasy about the partnership between Russia and North Korea but unwilling to distance itself fully. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan are caught between their alliance with the United States and their desire to engage with China to prevent conflict.
Echoes of the Cold War in Northeast Asia | East Asia Forum
Philippines – China
(Noah Robertson – Defense News) The Philippines is seeking to schedule a call with Beijing “very soon” amid an emerging crisis in the South China Sea, according to the Southeast Asia country’s ambassador to the U.S. At issue is the Sierra Madre, a rusting World War II-era ship run aground on a reef known as the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines uses the ship as an outpost and resupplies its soldiers there about once a month.
Philippines seeking call with China over emerging Sierra Madre crisis (defensenews.com)
Russia
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin is increasingly relying on the state-registered Cossack movement to feign interethnic harmony and national unity in Russia, pushing back against reports of growing social unrest throughout the country. While the Cossacks are touted as rising above ethnic differences, some still promote xenophobic messaging and resentment against other ethnic groups at the grassroots level. The proclaimed role of Cossacks loyal to the Kremlin in promoting interethnic unity while alienating certain ethnically non-Russian groups hides the uglier reality of growing societal and interethnic strife throughout Russia.
Moscow Uses Cossacks to Feign Interethnic Harmony in Russia – Jamestown
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Pro-Kremlin analysts increasingly insist that Moscow is becoming a leader in the next phase of global technological advancement and is moving toward the economy of the future. Some official statistics indicate otherwise. Russian production and technological development still depend heavily on foreign-made machine tools as well as Western software and technical know-how, which continue to be imported despite sanctions. The growth of Russia’s military expenditures and mobilization of the economy onto a war footing have laid the groundwork for years of stagnation and degradation in the domestic economy.
Russian Economy Stagnates Amid Claims of Growing Global Influence – Jamestown
(Jack Watling and Gary Somerville – RUSI) Ukraine’s international partners have been seeking to curtail Russian defence production through the sanctioning of Russian-affiliated individuals and entities and the disruption of Russian sanctions circumvention and covert procurement of military components on the international market since 2014. This effort accelerated after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Despite a considerable amount of government effort, it has so far failed to have a material impact.
(Ana Palacio – ASPI The Strategist) June has been a busy month for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a speech at Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he outlined his terms for peace negotiations with Ukraine and proposed establishing an alternative international security system in collaboration with China.
Putin’s latest stirring—in Asia and Europe | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia – North Korea
(Alexander Baunov – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ostentatious visit to North Korea last week may seem like a return to the Soviet past, but it is in fact a reconstruction of a myth. Ahead of his arrival in Pyongyang, Putin wrote an article for North Korea’s main newspaper glorifying the traditions of friendship and cooperation of both peoples. The truth, however, is that Soviet leaders did not like the Kims. In fact, they despised their North Korean protégés. Even the worst scholars of Marx among the Soviet leadership were well aware that there was nothing Marxist-Leninist about this hereditary Juche.
South Korea – Japan
(Kyuseok Kim – East Asia Forum) Universities in South Korea and Japan are grappling with financial constraints due to tuition fee policies and demographic challenges. The 15-year tuition freeze in South Korea has resulted in financial difficulties, forcing some universities to raise tuition fees. In Japan, a proposed increase in fees at the University of Tokyo sparked opposition amid concerns about accessibility for lower-income students. Both situations are causing debates about the sustainability and accessibility of higher education in the face of demographic and economic challenges.
South Korean and Japanese universities under pressure to lift tuition fees | East Asia Forum
Space
(Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) Russia is developing a nuclear-weapons-based anti-satellite (ASAT) capability, and the Western democracies must work together to prevent Moscow from deploying such a weapon. This will be an immediate and important challenge, testing the next US administration and its ability to work with allies to ensure stability and security in space.
A nuclear sword of Damocles in orbit | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Ukraine
(Marnie Howlett and Daryna Dvornichenko – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Ukraine faces a significant problem of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The number of IDPs in the country has grown quickly since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, with an estimated 3.7 million more registered in February 2024 than in 2021. While this number continues to fluctuate as a result of Russia’s ongoing aggression, it is estimated that as many as one in ten of Ukraine’s preinvasion population has been uprooted but not moved abroad. Women and children are disproportionately affected by the war, as is exemplified by Russia’s many attacks on maternity hospitals in Ukraine and the exodus of Ukrainian women and children since 2022.
(Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) The likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23 have increased fears within the Russian information space about further attacks and instability in the North Caucasus.
(Tendai Biti, Greg Mills, and Bobi Wine – RUSI) On 15–16 June, leaders from countries around the world gathered in Switzerland to seek a way to bring peace to Ukraine, now in the third year since Russia’s invasion. A summit communiqué has been drafted which is guided by key UN resolutions, to which 82 state (and six multinational) signatories representing more than 60% of global GDP have so far signed up.
Africa Should Stand Behind Ukraine’s Call for Peace | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA
(Stewart Prager – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) It is a commonplace that the danger of nuclear weapons is becoming more severe year by year. This is reflected in the Bulletin’s Doomsday Clock, for which the time to midnight has declined steadily since 1996. At this trend, the international security situation will continue to grow even more perilous, despite the ongoing efforts of the US arms control community.
USA – China
(Christian Ruhl – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) During the short thaw of US-China relations over the last six months, the Biden administration has emphasized the importance of crisis communication channels or “hotlines” for stabilizing the relationship between the two powers. After the Biden-Xi Woodside Summit in November 2023, the administration touted an agreement to reopen military-to-military communications—though progress on implementing the agreement has been slow. Ahead of a follow-on call between the two leaders this April, a senior US official explained that “President Biden has made clear that this mil-mil [military-to-military] communication is critical at all times but especially during times of heightened tensions.”
USA – Indo Pacific
(Jennifer Kavanagh and Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) International trade has been a pillar of U.S. foreign and domestic policy for most of the post–World War II era. Policymakers from both major parties have treated strong international economic relationships built on expanding international trade as central to advancing economic growth at home and achieving American goals on international development and security abroad. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen captured the old consensus position well in an April 2023 speech explaining that “our economic power is amplified because we don’t stand alone. America values our close friends and partners in every region of the world, including the Indo-Pacific. In the 21st century, no country in isolation can create a strong and sustainable economy for its people.” Her words echoed those of one of her predecessors, Henry Paulson, who remarked sixteen years earlier on the benefits of open economic exchange that “countries that weren’t afraid of competition, that opened themselves up to trade, competition and trade, investment and finance, benefited, [whereas] the rest of the world, others were left behind. And opening . . . up to this competition leads to innovation, it leads to better jobs, more jobs, it leads to a higher standard of living.”
USA – Saudi Arabia
(Marwan Muasher – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) For months, the White House has been claiming that a U.S.-Saudi deal to normalize diplomatic relations between the kingdom and Israel is near completion. But many sticking points remain. The most crucial of those concerns Israel’s unwillingness to seriously consider a two-state solution in Palestine, which Saudi leaders say is a precondition for any agreement. Yet even if this stipulation is somehow met, the chances for a ratification of the deal by the U.S. Senate are remote, and the administration’s focus on the agreement has distracted it from other, more pressing issues.
