LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Argentina
(José Higuera – Defense News) The Argentine Army will begin receiving its first modernized 2CA2 medium tanks in September, with a dozen to be delivered by year’s end, military sources in Buenos Aires told Defense News.
When will Argentina receive its modernized tanks? (defensenews.com)
Armenia
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) In June, Baku reiterated its demand that any peace agreement must explicitly address changes in the Armenian Constitution, including the removal of what Azerbaijan and Türkiye perceive as territorial claims against them. Since taking power in 2018, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has sought to revise the constitution, but efforts have been derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan, and snap elections. Government officials and commentators in Azerbaijan have asserted that the constitutional reforms should be implemented on a deadline if a peace agreement is to be signed, while the situation in Armenia remains unclear.
Constitutional Delay in Armenia Threatens to Derail Peace Talks With Azerbaijan – Jamestown
Australia
(Emily Foley – Lowy The Interpreter) Australians are back to thinking about migration in a fashion similar to how the country approached the issue before the borders closed for the Covid pandemic. Attitudes might be split – some Australians see the immigration rate as too high, for others it is too low. But one of the intriguing insights from the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll is the relative consistency of opinion when looking across the last five years.
Australians get the benefits of migration, even the doubters | Lowy Institute
(Stephen Grenville – Lowy The Interpreter) The role of gas in Australia’s energy transition is fraught. Domestically, the tension is between purist greens and renewable realists. But another key issue lies overseas: 80 per cent of Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) is exported, with tension between Australia’s obligations to maintaining global energy supplies and its responsibility for the carbon emitted by these exports.
Gas and the difficult path to net zero | Lowy Institute
(Paul Dibb and Richard Brabin-Smith – ASPI The Strategist) In this government’s National Defence Strategy, published in April, Defence Minister Richard Marles reaffirmed that ‘Australia no longer enjoys the benefit of a 10-year window of strategic warning time for conflict.’ This was one of the key judgements of the 2023 Defence Strategic Review and, indeed, of the Morrison Government’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update. So, there is bipartisan agreement on this critical subject. However, as argued below, this new era of shortened warning time requires a radically new approach to Australia’s defence policy.
Why defence warning time requires urgent attention | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Canada – Japan – UK – Taiwan
(Rafiq Dossani, Cortez A. Cooper III, Joan Chang – RAND Corporation) In this report, the authors explore the equities of four middle powers — Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom — and the roles that they might play in deterring or limiting conflict between China and Taiwan over the Taiwan Strait. A country’s equities are its long-term interests in a scenario, such as a cross-Strait conflict. Middle powers are nations that are not small but lack the sheer size and influence to significantly disrupt the global order. However, middle-power countries can influence international affairs through mediation and institution-building, and middle powers can also play a balancing role between adversarial great powers.
Middle-Power Equities in a Cross-Strait Conflict | RAND
Bridgetown Initiative 3.0
(Aude Darnal, Nicole Gilbert, Natika Kantaria – Stimson Center) On May 28, at the Fourth International Conference on Small Island Developing States in Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley unveiled the Bridgetown Initiative 3.0 for consultation. According to Mottley, “the Bridgetown Initiative 3.0 calls on the world to recogni[z]e that the rules of the game must change, we must shock proof [sic] economies and we must commit to dramatically increase financing. It is time to act in solidarity for [the] people and [the] planet.”
Barbados and the Reform of the International Financial Architecture • Stimson Center
China
(Gordon Arthur – Defense News) Despite China’s notorious secrecy surrounding all things defense, there are indications it is making progress on a sixth-generation fighter.
When will China have a sixth-gen fighter jet? (defensenews.com)
China – Africa
(Chido Munyati – World Economic Forum) China has become Africa’s largest trading partner and creditor in recent years under programmes such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Now, China-Africa economic relations are entering a new chapter as both face a global economic slowdown. China’s private sector is now likely to lead trade and investment in Africa, while new initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will promote the growth of regional value chains by offering Chinese businesses access to a larger unified African market.
Understanding evolving China-Africa economic relations | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
France
(Rama Yade – Atlantic Council) France has plunged into one of the most serious political crises of the Fifth Republic, following President Emmanuel Macron’s unexpected decision to call for new elections in the wake of a historic defeat for his party in the European elections on June 9.
How will France’s snap elections play out? Here are four scenarios. – Atlantic Council
Germany
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The German intelligence agency charged with monitoring extremist threats classified the anti-Israel “Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions” (BDS) campaign as a case of “suspected extremism” for the first time.
German Intelligence Agency Classifies BDS Campaign as ‘Extremist’ Threat (fdd.org)
International Order
(Ignacio Campomanes, Nina Dannaoui, Joseph Lemoine, and Dan Negrea – Atlantic Council) We are living in turbulent times, and 2024 is without doubt a crucial year. A total of sixty-four countries and almost half of the population of the world will hold national elections this year. Their results will determine the future path for freedom and prosperity in years to come. This report presents the annual update of our indexes, which portray a clear picture of the situation of the world during this decisive year. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the trends of freedom, prosperity, and their respective components during the last decade uncovers several striking facts that can help us understand how we got to this critical juncture.
The path to prosperity: The 2024 Freedom and Prosperity Indexes – Atlantic Council
Iran
(May, the Islamic Republic will hold presidential “elections” — or more aBehnam Ben Taleblu, Janatan Sayeh – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Following the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in ptly, selections —on Friday, June 28. Iran’s Guardian Council — a 12-person body composed of six clerics and six civil jurists directly or indirectly appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — vets all candidates for public office The council has approved the candidacy of just six persons out of the 80 who registered to run. All six are male, half are subject to Western sanctions, five out of six served in the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, and only one is a cleric. While the next president is expected to serve at least one four-year term and could preside over a period of transition given Iran’s aging Supreme Leader, voters have increasingly resisted participation in electoral contests as nationwide anti-regime protests have risen in frequency, duration, and intensity.
Iran’s Presidential Selection (fdd.org)
Iran – USA
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Biden administration is permitting Iran to set up absentee voter sites for its upcoming presidential election on U.S. soil, Voice of America (VOA) reported on June 22. Iranian citizens will reportedly be able to cast ballots at one of 30 voting stations across the United States, including at the Interests Section of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington, DC, in the June 28 election to replace the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May.
Biden Administration Allows Iran to Run Absentee Voter Stations on U.S. Soil (fdd.org)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Seth J. Frantzman – Breaking Defense) Israel’s Ministry of Defense announced that the country exported $13 billion in defense products in 2023, the third year in a row of record sales for the defense industry here, and an increase of $500 million over 2022 despite the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Israel’s defense sales top $13B as 2023 becomes another record year – Breaking Defense
(Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Marcus Mildenberger, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with ultraconservative hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili’s views, possibly indicating that Khamenei endorses Jalili in the upcoming election. Khamenei’s views also signal the supreme leader’s opposition to reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran Update, June 25, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) A group of more than 100 Israeli plaintiffs, composed of victims of the October 7 Hamas atrocities along with family members, filed a lawsuit in New York on June 24 demanding over $1 billion in damages from the United Nations (UN) agency dedicated to Palestinian refugees and their descendants.
Israeli Victims of Hamas October 7 Atrocities File Lawsuit in New York Against UNRWA (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah blamed each other on June 24 for the latest delay in reconciliation talks. Hamas accused Fatah of canceling the meeting, scheduled to take place in China later this month, while a Fatah spokesperson said that Hamas refused to reschedule discussions. A Hamas official denied this accusation. No date has been set for a new meeting.
Hamas, Fatah Trade Blame for Postponement of Unity Talks (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Hamas may relocate its political headquarters from Qatar to Iraq, unnamed sources told The National on June 24. The Iran-backed group already opened a political office in Baghdad in June and plans to add a media office in the Iraqi capital “in the coming weeks,” the Emirati news outlet noted.
Rumors Swirl Over Hamas Move From Qatar to Iraq (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The panel of food security experts whose assessment last March of an “imminent” famine in northern Gaza was widely reported have now concluded that it never materialized. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) — a partnership of governments, UN agencies, and NGOs — released an updated analysis confirming that increased shipments of food to northern Gaza averted starvation.
Expert Panel Says ‘Imminent’ Famine in Gaza Never Materialized (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Hamas terrorists gathered in a building at Gaza City’s Islamic University to launch anti-tank missiles at Israeli troops, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 25. “An Israeli Air Force aircraft struck Hamas terrorists who were operating inside the Islamic University in the Sabra area of the Gaza Strip,” The Jerusalem Post reported.
IDF Strikes Gaza’s Islamic University After Hamas Uses It to Launch Missiles (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) As fears of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah continue to grow, the leader of the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group has turned down an offer from other Iranian proxies in the region to send fighters in solidarity, the Associated Press reported on June 23.
Hezbollah Turns Down Offer From Fellow Iran Proxies to Send Troops for War Against Israel (fdd.org)
(Ahmad Sharawi – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Jordanian Public Security Directorate announced on June 22 that security forces are handling an investigative case in the South Marka area of the capital, Amman, according to the official Jordanian News Agency. Authorities stated that initial investigations indicated several individuals had been storing significant quantities of explosive materials inside a house.
Iran-affiliated cell reportedly found storing explosives in Jordan’s capital (fdd.org)
NATO
(Steven Pifer – Brookings) NATO has safeguarded U.S. and trans-Atlantic security for 75 years, under Democratic and Republican presidents alike. Could NATO survive a second Donald Trump administration? Most likely not—at least not with the United States as a committed ally and alliance leader. That would pose serious challenges for the European part of the alliance.
Could NATO survive a second Trump administration? | Brookings
Pacific Islands
(Virginia Comolli – ASPI The Strategist) Drugs, human trafficking, illegal gambling, cyber scams and money laundering are among the most prevalent criminal activities reported in Pacific islands, which were once almost free of organised crime. While these crime types have a devastating human-security impact on the region, organised crime groups are also undermining the rule of law through influencing political elites—a point highlighted in the Pacific Islands Forum’s Regional Transnational Organised Crime Disruption Strategy 2024–2028.
Pacific islands are no longer free of organised crime | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia
(Maxim Starchak – Defense News) The sole Russian company that produces Tu-160M bombers has completed upgrades to three workshops, it announced June 24. United Aircraft Corp., which owns Tupolev and the Kazan Aircraft Plant, said upgrades were done for preproduction, mechanical assembly and flight test centers.
Three workshops receive upgrades at Russian bomber manufacturer (defensenews.com)
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The deadly Islamist violence against Christian and Jewish centers in two Dagestani cities is the latest in a string of such actions involving Dagestanis and a continuation of the tectonic shifts there that cast doubt on Moscow’s control. These developments are rooted in Dagestani society but have been exacerbated by Kremlin policies that undermine Moscow’s ability to rely on repression alone. As a result, more Russians are questioning Putin’s claim to have pacified the North Caucasus—a major reason the population has backed him—and are pointedly asking why he has failed to protect Russia against Islamist violence.
New Attacks Suggest Moscow Rapidly Losing Control Over Dagestani Population – Jamestown
Russia – Chad
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) Mahamat Idriss Déby, Chad’s new president, has voiced interest in increasing cooperation with Moscow amid creeping Russian influence throughout the Sahel. Any move by the young president toward replacing French influence with a Russian presence will likely be met with strong resistance from Chad’s military leaders, who have not expressed a preference for Russia. Suspicions that Russian troops have already entered the country may have been misplaced, as the troops arriving in April were an official Hungarian contingent with no clear connections to the Kremlin.
Russia Works to Displace French Influence in Chad – Jamestown
UK
(Tim Martin – Breaking Defense) As the United Kingdom counts down to a general election on July 4, the center-left Labour Party looks on course to return to power for the first time in 14 years, and do so, according to opinion polls, with a commanding majority of around 200 to 256 parliamentary seats.
What could a new Labour government mean for UK defense? – Breaking Defense
Ukraine
(Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Two major international bodies—the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) — announced decisions on June 25 confirming Russia’s long-term perpetration of war crimes and human rights violations in Ukraine.
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) Ukraine began official membership talks with the EU on June 25, providing the embattled East European nation with a powerful morale boost as it continues to fight for survival against Russia’s ongoing invasion.
Historic day for Ukraine as EU launches official membership talks – Atlantic Council
(Giorgio Cafiero – Stimson Center) Earlier this month, Switzerland hosted a two-day “peace summit” on Ukraine at the Bürgenstock resort on Lake Lucerne. Russia was absent, but roughly 100 delegations representing countries and organizations from across the world, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), attended.
The Arabs and the Ukraine War: Kyiv’s Vision for Peace Fails to Gain Much Traction • Stimson Center
USA
(Atlantic Council) Expect a lot of back and forth about the state of the US economy when President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump face off Thursday in the first presidential debate. But what’s the real story? Experts from across the Atlantic Council compiled the figures and context you need to gauge the true health of the US economy—from unemployment to inflation to energy production—and how it compares with economic conditions in allied and rival countries around the globe.
Your presidential debate prep on the US economy, in charts – Atlantic Council
USA – AUKUS
(Peter Dean – Lowy The Interpreter) AUKUS will survive under the next US president regardless of who wins the election in November.
Ten reasons why Trump will support AUKUS | Lowy Institute
USA – China
(Molly Pflaum – ASPI The Strategist) America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific are getting pretty familiar with China’s grey-zone maritime behaviour, but the United States itself is ill-prepared for dealing with it
USA – India
(Theresa Hitchens – Breaking Defense) As the US and India step up plans to tighten collaboration in the military space sphere, Indian officials next year will participate in US Space Command’s annual Global Sentinel exercise designed to better integrate allied capabilities to monitor the heavens, according to the White House.
US, India stepping up military space cooperation, including exercising – Breaking Defense
USA – Niger
(Jen Judson – Defense News) The U.S. will have fully cleared out of one air base in Niger as it continues to move personnel and equipment from the African country ahead of a September deadline to complete its withdrawal, according to the head of U.S. Africa Command.
US to vacate first air base within weeks as it withdraws from Niger (defensenews.com)
USA – Pacific
(Todd South – Defense News) The Marines recently landed their first fixed wing aircraft on a recertified airfield on the Pacific island of Peleliu, which jarheads captured after brutal combat in 1944. The KC-130J Super Hercules tanker with 1st Marine Air Wing landed Saturday, marking the first time the Corps has landed such an aircraft on the installation since the service recertified the airfield in early June, according to a Marine Corps press release.
Marines make first landing on renovated WWII airfield in the Pacific (defensenews.com)
(Jen Judson – Defense News) The U.S. Army said it fired its newly fielded Precision Strike Missile from the Pacific island of Palau and engaged a moving target at sea, marking the first time the weapon has been used outside of American-based testing sites.
US Army’s new precision missile hit moving target in Pacific exercise (defensenews.com)
USA – Russia
(Noah Robertson – Defense News) U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Russia’s defense minister — the first such conversation in 15 months. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder announced the call in a briefing Tuesday, saying Austin initiated the discussion.
Pentagon head speaks with Russian counterpart for first time in a year (defensenews.com)
Western Balkans
(Valery Perry – Just Security) A modern-day gold rush is on in the Western Balkans. But how these six countries — and key European and U.S. partners — handle the opportunities available will determine whether such investment will support desperately needed political and economic reforms or further reward and consolidate illiberal regimes. The latter outcome will prevail if three basic questions are not asked and satisfactorily answered: Do citizens have the right of informed consent for exploitation in their community? Is there a functioning legislative and oversight mechanism to ensure enforcement of European standards across the board? And where is the money going?
