LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Argentina
(Martin Mühleisen – Atlantic Council) Argentina’s Milei government last week received its second blessing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for its hard-hitting economic reforms. The lender’s executive board agreed to pay out the next of several small disbursements that remain under Argentina’s 2023 program, which was on hold after the previous Peronist government reneged on its policy commitments. Although the Milei administration had to make significant concessions to pass its reforms through Argentina’s Senate, the resumption of the program has been entirely justified. In fact, the IMF had disbursed much larger amounts to the Fernández administration to avoid a default on its earlier loan, without getting meaningful reforms from the government in return.
Caspian Sea Region
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have formed a plan for the transmission of green energy to the European Union via the Caspian Sea. The use of Caspian routes to transport energy to Europe has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent loss of access to European markets. The countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus hope to leverage their wealth of natural resources and advantageous geography to transform the Caspian Sea region into a major hub for satisfying Europe’s energy needs.
Transformation of Caspian Sea Region Into Energy Hub Gaining Momentum (Part One) – Jamestown
China
(Observer Research Foundation) China’s dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) value chain and EV adoption was unexpected. The West repeated the mistake it made with Japanese Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars and assumed that the technological and design inadequacies of Chinese EVs would pose no threat. Today, governments from across the world, including the Government of India, are struggling to respond to the quality and affordability of Chinese EVs, China’s dominance over EV production and EV adoption. China began its EV drive later than the United States (US). Both countries had similar policies to incentivise companies and consumers, but China surpassed the US EV industry within a decade. Government-led policies, incentives and subsidies played a big role in putting China ahead of its competition. However, copying China today is not likely to beat China in the future.
The electric vehicle value chain: China reinvents the wheel (orfonline.org)
India
(Swati Prabhu, Sharon Sarah Thawaney – Observer Research Foundation) India should lead by example by prioritising the inclusion of women in diplomacy by adopting a Female Foreign Policy approach.
Running the world: Women in diplomacy (orfonline.org)
(Subhojit Goswami, Nikita Sarah – Observer Research Foundation) In India, the southwest monsoon brings the combined concern of droughts and floods. While Vidarbha (Maharashtra), Bundelkhand (Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh), Purulia (West Bengal), and northern parts of Karnataka often face protracted drought, the regions along the Brahmaputra and Ganga River basins face the onslaught of floods. Both these sudden and slow onset climate anomalies are looked upon as ecological problems, exacerbated by anthropogenic activities.
Climate dimension of disease prevention (orfonline.org)
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) As the leaders of G7 met in Italy last week, most of them were facing daunting domestic political challenges at home. US President Joe Biden is being challenged by Donald Trump and a tough political battle lies ahead. French President Emmanuel Macron had to call snap elections after voters in France dealt his party a humiliating blow in the European parliamentary elections. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided not to take any risk though he too performed poorly. Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party are assured of a rout in next month’s British general election if their current polling numbers are anything to go by. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been trailing in polls by double digits for nearly a year now although he seems to be in no hurry to give up his post despite intraparty rumblings.
A Guarantee Of Continuity (orfonline.org)
India – Germany
(Observer Research Foundation) Energy and climate partnerships between India and Germany are approaching a 20-year mark. Now, both countries are adopting green technologies and scaling up mitigation efforts more ambitiously, in line with global climate targets – including the goal to triple renewable energy capacities. In this policy brief, we look at the bilateral partnerships on climate change mitigation, assess how they align with the two countries foreign policy priorities and what a future partnership landscape could look like.
International Order
(Chatham House) Joining Bronwen Maddox this week is Fareed Zakaria, the host of Fareed Zakaria GPS on CNN. Recorded at our 2024 London Conference, they discuss the consequences of the US stepping back from its alliances, and the international order that relies on them.
Iran
(Sima Shine, Eldad Shavit – INSS) While Israel is fighting in the south and north, Iran continues to make alarming and unprecedented progress toward a military nuclear program. Where do the Iranian efforts stand—and can the hourglass still be stopped?
Growing Concern Over Iran’s Nuclear Program | INSS
(Middle East Institute) Alex Vatanka (Director, MEI’s Iran Program) and Ali Afshari (Iranian political analyst and pro-democracy activist) discuss Iran’s snap presidential elections, set to be held on June 28th, following the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. The 63-year-old regime loyalist was widely viewed as a leading potential successor to the Islamic Republic’s 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The elections come as Iran faces a number of challenges both at home and abroad, ranging from long-running domestic economic troubles and preparations for an eventual leadership transition to the regional reverberations of the ongoing war in Gaza and the tit-for-tat exchange of missile and drone strikes with Israel in April.
Iran’s snap presidential elections | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Israel – Iran
(Louis René Beres – INSS) For the most part, Israel’s no-choice Gaza War has been fought against sub-state terrorist adversary Hamas. But on April 13, 2024, Iran launched a first-ever direct missile and drone attack upon Israel. Though Tehran claimed the attack was permissible retaliation for Israel’s prior targeting of Iranian diplomats in Syria, the victims were in fact senior terrorist operators and the shielding consulate was being used perfidiously by Iran. Moreover, the Iranian attack was intentionally indiscriminate (displaying mens rea, or criminal intent) and thus a violation of humanitarian international law. The critical question for Israel is now this: What forms of lawful reaction should be launched against Iran, and when? The single most important standard of operational choice should center on Israel’s long-term survival, especially its necessary protection from a prospective Iranian nuclear attack. Iran is still pre-nuclear, but that limitation could disappear in the next year and make any residual security options less effective for Israel. Accordingly, Israel should base its military decisions regarding war with Iran upon the requirements of national survival, not on secondary bases of vengeance, political advantage or Jewish justice. Recalling Roman philosopher Cicero, “The safety of the People shall be the highest law.”
War With Iran: Israel’s Legal Obligation to Prevent Iranian Nuclear Weapons (besacenter.org)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Jonathan M. Winer – Middle East Institute) It may or may not be a coincidence that the Russian government’s rebrand of the Libya-based wing of the mercenary force formerly known as the Wagner Group into the explicitly state-sponsored and state-controlled “Africa Corps” evokes the infamous Nazi German “Afrika Korps.” But in any case, as this Russian military/paramilitary presence continues to infect the Maghreb, the Sahel, and neighboring regions of the African continent, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its members have at last begun to take notice.
(Shay Shabtai – BESA Center) In this article I will present five alternatives for the future of Gaza. Israel’s long-term strategy to ensure its continued existence entails the accomplishment of these goals: destruction of Hamas’s military capabilities, abolition of Hamas control in Gaza, and the preservation of good relations with the United States. Less core strategic considerations are the return of the abductees, the crisis on the northern front, relations within the region, and Israel’s legitimacy. The alternatives for Gaza’s future are: the Hamas option, which is the most problematic; the revitalized Palestinian Authority option; the military-civilian option, which seems the most balanced; the chaos option; and the sovereignty option, which is also very problematic. It is essential to conduct a far-reaching discussion on all these alternatives and to avoid attachment to any one of them.
Five Alternatives for the Future of Gaza (besacenter.org)
(Randa Slim, Paul Scham, Brian Katulis, Eyal Lurie-Pardes, Alex Vatanka, Karim Elgendy, Mirette F. Mabrouk – Middle East Institute) Monday Briefing (June 24, 2024): Israel-Hezbollah war
NATO
(Kristine Berzina, Martin Quencez, Michal Baranowski, Adam Hsakou – GMF) The Washington summit in July 2024 is expected to be both a celebration of the 75th anniversary of NATO and a critical moment for assessing how well the alliance is adapting to a new security environment. Allies will welcome Sweden into the club and seek to convey an image of resolute unity in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. An ambitious summit agenda—from strengthening NATO deterrence and collective defense, to supporting Ukraine and developing NATO’s global partnerships—will define the alliance’s future policy roadmap.
Pakistan – China
(Sushant Sareen – Observer Research Foundation) Military operations by Pakistan Army against Islamist radicals and terrorists are like the country’s annual budgets: They all pretend to be aimed at solving the critical problems but they all falter because they never address the underlying structural causes that gave rise to the problem in the first place. And, quite like the budgets, military operations are often devised and designed not so much to address the principal problem as they are to satisfy and appease foreign players—the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in case of the budget, and increasingly China, in case of the anti-terror operations.
Azm-e-Istehkam: China’s wish is Pakistan’s command (orfonline.org)
Russia – Asia
(Edward Howell – Chatham House) The much-anticipated visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang on 17–18 June emphasized how relations between North Korea and Russia have now reached new levels. The two states signed a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ agreement, including a mutual defence clause.
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea and Vietnam to neutralize the diplomatic outcomes of the peace summit in Switzerland and prove Russia’s ability to maintain a high international profile. Nuclear saber-rattling and Moscow’s need for more artillery shells were high on Putin’s agenda in Pyongyang, though North Korea’s faulty munitions have caused more problems than solutions for Russian forces in Ukraine. Putin’s recent diplomatic efforts are focused on stirring trouble and fomenting tensions as Russia can only continue to claim a prominent role in international affairs in a fraught geopolitical environment
Putin’s Asia Tour Exposes Russia’s Rapid Degradation From Long War – Jamestown
Sudan
(Anusha Khurana – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The civil war in Sudan has created a humanitarian crisis, leaving millions at risk of gender-based violence. Women and children bear a disproportionate burden due to deep-rooted political, ethnic and economic issues. Addressing gender inequities and empowering women is essential for long-term peace and security. Meaningful engagement for women at all decision-making levels, from grassroots to high-level peace talks, is crucial.
(Crisis Group) Hundreds of thousands of civilians are caught in the crossfire with war intensifying in North Darfur and its capital El Fasher. Concerted pressure is needed to get all sides to de-escalate. It will be difficult, but bowing to fatalism would be inexcusable.
Halting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudan’s El Fasher | Crisis Group
(Dame Rosalind Marsden – Chatham House) The war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no sign of stopping, amid grave human rights violations against civilians by both sides and a growing number of external actors fuelling the conflict.
Thailand – BRICS
(Soumya Bhowmick – Observer Research Foundation) In May 2024, Thailand officially submitted its application to join BRICS, positioning itself as the first Southeast Asian nation to do so. The Thai cabinet approved the draft of the official letter indicating the country’s intent to become a member, reflecting Thailand’s strategic ambition to boost economic growth and competitiveness on the global stage, diversify international partnerships, and elevate geopolitical influence.
Thailand’s pursuit of BRICS membership (orfonline.org)
Türkiye
(Chatham House) The Republic of Türkiye’s Minister of Finance joins Chatham House Director, Bronwen Maddox to discuss the Turkish economy, fighting inflation and global monetary conditions.
(Aynur Kerimu – The Jamestown Foundation) Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Xinjiang underscores an expanding partnership with China, signaling a shift in Türkiye’s approach to the Uyghur issue and demonstrating a renewed focus on strengthening bilateral ties. Ankara seeks greater Chinese investment and a reduction in their trade imbalance amid severe economic struggles and high inflation at home.
Türkiye will have to be diplomatic in maintaining its traditional balancing act between regional powers, especially as growing cooperation with China will likely foment distrust among Ankara’s Western allies.
Türkiye Strengthens Pivot Toward China – Jamestown
UK
(Michael Gasiorek – Chatham House) Although the Conservative and Labour parties are both making a policy promise a day ahead of the 4 July general election, none of these proposed policies is addressing the UK’s international trade. This is leaving many important and cross-cutting aspects of trade untouched. Both parties’ reluctance to talk about trade with the EU may well explain the general lack of focus on this area.
Ukraine
(Josh Rudolph – GMF) The Ukrainian parliament just passed Ukraine’s most consequential reform so far this year. It overhauls a law enforcement agency reportedly staffed with crooked tax police officers infamous for shaking down businesses on behalf of oligarchs and politicians. The final version of the legislation featured tight provisions to prevent loopholes, and came after a two-year reform drive of the bureau ended with two days of intense jockeying. Surprisingly, there is not a single story in the mainstream international press covering this important reboot of the Economic Security Bureau of Ukraine (ESBU).
A Big Win for Reform in Kyiv | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Liudmyla Kurnosikova – GMF) At last year’s Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) in London, war risk insurance emerged as a promising instrument to attract and retain foreign investors in the war-torn country. Selected projects under the aegis of the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency or Unity insurance facility gained traction, but overall progress on war risk insurance for business has been limited.
(Crisis Goup) Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories | Crisis Group
(Sam Cranny-Evans – RUSI) Russia has steadily eroded what little advantages Ukraine has fought hard to create. It has done this by focusing on two key combat strategies. The first is frontline attrition and sustained pressure along the front, with limited actions to retake cities and towns that are considered important to Russia’s overall objectives. The second is attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which have been accompanied by a concerted effort to deplete Western and Ukrainian stocks of air defence missiles. Because of this, Russia’s strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have grown in efficacy, and are now in danger of achieving the Kremlin’s goal of a total blackout in Ukraine.
USA
(Peter Chase – GMF) In the first Trade Policy Agenda of his presidency, Donald Trump “reject[ed] the notion that the United States should, for putative geopolitical advantage [emphasis added], turn a blind eye to unfair trade practices that disadvantage American workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses in global markets”.
