LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Marina Yue Zhang . Lowy The Interpreter) The Australian government has issued a directive for five foreign companies with links to China to divest their stakes in Northern Minerals Limited within two months. The mining consortium is seeking to produce dysprosium, a heavy rare earth element used in powerful magnets for electric vehicles, industrial robotics and wind turbines, as well as advanced weapons systems. Treasurer Jim Chalmers made this decision on “national interest” grounds following advice from the Foreign Investment Review Board.
Rare earths vs rarer resources: Global ripples from Australia’s divestment decision | Lowy Institute
Australia – Indonesia
(James Guild – East Asia Forum) Despite soaring nickel prices between 2016 and 2022, Australian nickel miners, such as Wyloo Metals and BHP, have struggled due to a surge in market supply from Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel reserve holder, leading to a fall in nickel prices. While Australian miners argue for an ESG price premium based on higher quality and lower environmental costs, the nickel production landscape is becoming increasingly influenced by geopolitics and industrial policy, rendering these market-based solutions ineffective.
Australia gets nickel-and-dimed by Indonesian downstreaming | East Asia Forum
China
(Georgia Hammersley, Grace Stanhope – Lowy The Interpreter) Developing countries face massive costs to meet the challenges posed by climate change. This year, world leaders will come together at the UN climate talks in Azerbaijan to agree to a new global target for the provision of climate finance. The existing goal of US$100 billion per year by 2020 was met by wealthy donor governments, but two years late. It also fell well short of needs, which are expected soar to around US$2.4 trillion annually by 2030 in the developing world (excluding China). The challenge for the new post-2025 goal is to increase ambition while remaining practical about how to secure more funds.
China’s contributions are a blind spot in global climate finance | Lowy Institute
China – Australia
(Jocelyn Chey – East Asia Forum) Australian citizen Yang Hengjun’s death sentence for espionage in China has complicated the improvement of China–Australia relations. The case highlights concerns about China’s legal system, particularly regarding national security cases where the judiciary lacks transparency and independence. Despite international condemnation, China continues to issue numerous death sentences. The case also underscores the growing mistrust and espionage concerns between China and the West, which have implications for individuals and firms caught between the two sides.
Espionage death sentence the latest challenge to China–Australia relations | East Asia Forum
China – USA
(Lily McElwee – Lawfare) In April, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen traveled to Beijing with little fanfare. The Biden administration has kept diplomatic engagements and new working groups with Beijing relatively low-key; and their format and future, come the U.S. presidential elections this fall, is highly uncertain. Many in Washington are rightly skeptical that talking to Beijing can bring upsides for the United States. For decades, successive U.S. administrations tried to coax China toward market-oriented reform and responsible international behavior through high-level diplomacy and deepened trade and investment. Instead, Beijing embraced a statist, security-driven approach to governance, grew more assertive globally, and began weaponizing commerce for its strategic and military advancement.
How Economic Talks With China Can Advance U.S. Interests | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
(Patrick Tucker – Defense One) China’s growing interest in opening more military bases abroad does not pose a big threat to U.S. forces in the next six years, RAND concludes in a new report out Monday. China is not well positioned to build foreign bases or run them in a way that will improve their ability to contest U.S. naval power.
China’s overseas bases aren’t a big threat, yet: RAND – Defense One
Climate Action & Energy Transition
(Michelle Meineke – World Economic Forum) Illegal wildlife trafficking currently affects 4,000 animal and plant species, despite two decades of global efforts to halt it, a new United Nations (UN) report finds. Around 13 million items were seized from 2015-2021, according to the World Wildlife Crime Report 2024. Understanding how wildlife crime impacts high-agenda concerns like biodiversity – the third biggest risk of the next decade, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks report – could help accelerate action.
Estonia
(Sam Skove – Defense One) With a close eye on Ukraine’s use of drones, Estonians are fielding new kit, changing doctrine, and revamping training for unmanned systems in case they also have to repel a Russian invasion one day.
How Estonia is becoming a hotbed for drone warfare – Defense One
European Union
(Jörn Fleck, James Batchik – Atlantic Council) Is it a surge, a lurch, or something else entirely? The far and hard right did well in the European elections that concluded on June 9. But beyond the hype of Europe’s shift to the right, a closer look at the election outcome paints a more nuanced story of the center holding.
Setting the European Parliament elections in the ‘right’ context – Atlantic Council
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Officials in Russia and the occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia decried Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s declaration that by 2030, Georgians will once again live with Abkhazians and Ossetians. Georgian Dream officials and propagandists have alluded to a backdoor agreement between Moscow and Tbilisi on the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity in exchange for formalizing the country’s pro-Russian course. Georgians are already concerned that the formalization of a hostile approach to the West and deepening of strategic partnership with China may hurt the country’s policy of non-recognition of the occupied territories.
Guatemala
(International Peace Institute) On June 4th, IPI hosted a Global Leaders Series event featuring H.E. Bernardo Arévalo, President of Guatemala. The conversation between IPI President Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein and H.E. Bernardo Arévalo centered around current issues facing Guatemala, sustainable development, and goals for the future.
India
(Rahul Rawat – Observer Research Foundation) The 50th anniversary of PNE highlights India’s role as a responsible nuclear power, committed to full compliance and advancing global non-proliferation and export controls.
India’s responsible nuclear exceptionalism towards effective export controls (orfonline.org)
(Kuhu Agarwal – Observer Research Foundation) Imagine navigating the urban landscape in a wheelchair, or with a white cane in hand, where every step outside your door is a gamble—will today’s city be on your side, or will it be a labyrinth of obstacles? This is the daily reality for over 26 million Indians with disabilities, who face an urban environment that often forgets them. In the bustling streets of India’s cities, a silent struggle unfolds every day. Amidst the chaos of traffic and the hum of daily life, a significant yet often overlooked population confronts formidable barriers to their mobility.
Barrier-free boulevards: Designing cities for all abilities (orfonline.org)
India – Bangladesh
(Roshani Jain – Observer Research Foundation) The world’s largest single mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, is under severe ecological stress. Often called the ‘Lungs of Asia’, this critical ecosystem faces endangerment, despite being recognised as a ‘Protected Landscape’ by both India and Bangladesh. While both New Delhi and Dhaka have demonstrated political will towards its conservation, it is worth unpacking why the institutional safeguards in place have not translated into protection on ground. Such an investigation reveals that there are a whole host of factors that constrain conscientious governance, ranging from top-down factors like institutional shortcomings, and trends in bilateral relations between the two neighbours, to on-ground capacity and implementation issues.
Investigating the ecological decline in the Sundarbans (orfonline.org)
Mexico
(Vanda Felbab-Brown, Diana Paz García – Brookings) On June 2, over 60 million Mexican voters elected a president, deputies of the Mexican Congress, governors of nine states, state legislators, and thousands of municipal officials. The incumbent Morena party and Claudia Sheinbaum, a close supporter of the outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, wiped the floor with their opponents. As Mexico’s first female president—elected with the highest vote percentage of any president since Mexico’s 2001 transition to democracy—Sheinbaum will hold great power to shape Mexico’s future, including a significant ability to pass constitutional reforms. But Morena and Sheinbaum’s resounding success belies the elections’ complex dynamics and the deep security and rule of law dangers that Mexico faces.
Mexico, López Obrador, and Sheinbaum’s presidential victory | Brookings
Middle East and the Gulf
(David Daoud, Ahmad Sharawi – Atlantic Council) Hezbollah intensified its attacks against Israel since early May—shifting from pulling its punches on causing Israeli casualties to noticeably seeking to draw blood. Of the twenty-four Israelis slain in attacks from Lebanon since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah deliberately killed four—three soldiers and one civilian—during May’s second week. Nevertheless, Hezbollah is still calibrating its attacks to harm Israel’s Gaza campaign but remain below the threshold that would grant the Israelis international legitimacy to launch a full-scale campaign in Lebanon.
Hezbollah escalates in the shadow of US-Israel tensions over Rafah – Atlantic Council
NATO
(Defense One) If the alliance is to reach its century mark, the transatlantic partners must shift much of the responsibility of continental security to Europeans themselves.
Europeanize NATO to save it – Defense One
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) Two years ago, NATO adopted a “back to the future” strategy of forward defense and deterrence following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. To implement it, allies committed to take various measures to strengthen their deterrence and defense at the 2022 Madrid Summit. As NATO leaders gather in Washington for the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit, this paper takes stock of allied efforts to strengthen collective defense. It finds they have made substantial progress on defense spending, forward defense, high-readiness forces, command and control, collective defense exercises, and integrating Finland and Sweden—achievements which should be recognized in Washington. However, while NATO might be ready for war, the question remains whether it is ready to fight—and thereby deter—a protracted war. To meet this goal, allies still need to spend more, boost industrial capacity, address critical capability gaps, and bolster national resilience.
Is NATO Ready for War? (csis.org)
North Korea
(Jangho Choi – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) North Korea’s foreign relations in 2024 are in flux. It is facing two crises: strengthened UN sanctions leveled against its economy and the COVID-19 border closure. The combined crises of sanctions and border closures have put a strain on the North Korean economy. North Korea is trying to solve its economic difficulties through international cooperation, and summits are at the heart of these efforts. North Korea could host up to three summits in 2024 alone – one between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, another with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the last with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. How will these summits affect the North Korean economy?
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow says that Western actions in Gotland, Bornholm, and other islands in the Baltic Sea threaten Russian national security and that Russia will soon have no choice but to respond militarily. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly used the logic that Russia wants peace but that the West is forcing the Kremlin to respond to justify his actions in Georgia and Ukraine. Consequently, Moscow’s statements are not merely propaganda but rather a clear indication of Kremlin plans, which can only be countered by securing Russia’s defeat in Ukraine and expanding Western defenses in Europe’s north.
Moscow Focusing on Gotland and Other Baltic Sea Islands as Potential Targets – Jamestown
(Daniel Fried – Atlantic Council) At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin was defiant about the Russian economy. “Despite all the obstacles we are facing and the illegitimate sanctions imposed against us,” he declared, “Russia remains one of the key participants in global trade and is rapidly expanding the new logistics and geography of cooperation.” This is especially the case with non-Western countries, he indicated. Putin glossed over the difficulties, but the Russian economy has thus far been able to sustain his war of aggression in Ukraine.
Seven ways to reboot G7 sanctions on Russia – Atlantic Council
(Institute for International Relations) How much potential does Russia have to weaponize its gas supplies after its re-invasion of Ukraine in 2022? The paper from our deputy research director Martin Laryš aims to demonstrate that Moscow lost its prominent position in the lucrative EU market, which had been built over dozens of years, with no tangible political gains.
Russia – Ukraine
(Lennart Maschmeyer – Lawfare) The Russia-Ukraine war is the first case of cyber conflict in a large-scale military conflict involving a major power. Over the years, Russia-sponsored hacking groups have adapted their tradecraft to the war setting. Contrary to cyberwar fears, most cyber operations remained strategically inconsequential, but there are several exceptions: the AcidRain operation, the UKRTelecom disruption, the September 2022 power grid sabotage, and the catastrophic Kyivstar outage of 2023. Delving into these operations shows how Russia-sponsored hacking groups have exploited unique opportunities provided by territorial conquest and reveals an intriguing, underappreciated insider dimension to some of the war’s most damaging cyberattacks. These developments suggest hacking groups are increasingly fusing cyber operations with traditional subversive methods to improve effectiveness.
Cyber Conflict and Subversion in the Russia-Ukraine War | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian special services are conducting a broad disinformation campaign in disseminating an alleged narrative of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s illegitimacy. The primary goal of these psychological operations is to undermine unity within Ukrainian society and dissuade further Western support for Ukraine. A vast network of information resources has been created to disseminate the Russian regime’s narratives to the Western audience, which the European Union and other Western governments continue to sanction the entities involved.
Russian Psyops Target Zelenskyy’s Legitimacy – Jamestown
(Justin Bronk – RUSI) Ukraine’s apparent success in damaging a Su-57 is a substantial blow to Russia’s long-troubled stealth fighter fleet, and another Illustration of Ukraine’s most effective option for countering increasingly effective Russian air attacks on the frontlines.
Southeast Asia
(East Asia Forum) The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore saw key global leaders, including Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun and his US counterpart Lloyd Austin, discuss their countries’ foreign policy. Southeast Asian states articulated a strategy of hedging in their approach towards the great power competition between the United States and China. Using ASEAN’s home-grown institutions to develop diplomatic solutions to the region’s many challenges is crucial to maintaining not only regional but also global peace and stability.
Regional security still to find its pathway to Shangri-La | East Asia Forum
Taiwan
(Jared Jeter – East Asia Forum) Despite Lai Ching-te’s election win, Taiwanese public concerns centre on economic development and educational reform rather than cross-strait relations, signalling a shift from standard Democratic Progressive Party platform issues. But an ongoing trend toward distinctly Taiwanese identity suggests the population’s consistent desire for recognition independent of mainland China, further complicated by oscillation between political parties amid increasing demands for prosperity and peace.
Understanding Taiwan’s take on the Lai administration | East Asia Forum
Transatlantic Relations
(Institut Montaigne) La séquence mémorielle, ouverte par la visite de Joe Biden du 5 au 10 juin, s’est inscrite dans le contexte menaçant d’élections à haut risque de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique. Sur les principaux dossiers de la politique étrangère, la guerre à Gaza, la situation dans l’Indopacifique et la guerre en Ukraine, quelles sont les convergences et les divergences entre la France, l’Europe et les États-Unis ? Dans un climat délétère, quel est l’état des opinions publiques sur la relation transatlantique ? Analyse de François Godement.
Entre commémorations et élections, la destinée de la relation transatlantique | Institut Montaigne
UK
(Nicola Lester, Viktoriia Tsymbaliuk – RUSI) As the national conversation on preparing for war gathers pace, what can the UK learn from its own experiences and from the present conflict in Ukraine when it comes to dealing with the impact of mass casualties?
Ukraine
(Shelby Magid – Atlantic Council) The upcoming Summit on Peace in Ukraine, organized by the Swiss government in coordination with the Ukrainian government, is the most ambitious convening yet for Ukraine’s ongoing effort to rally global support for its vision for a just and lasting peace in the country. The high-level gathering in Switzerland on June 15 and 16 will bring heads of state, government, and organizations together with the goal of developing a common understanding of a path toward peace in Ukraine.
What to know about the upcoming Swiss Summit on Peace in Ukraine – Atlantic Council
USA
(Institut Montaigne) Alors que Donald Trump sera sans nul doute officiellement choisi, le 11 juillet, pour représenter de nouveau le parti Républicain, certains de ses anciens conseillers refont surface, espérant regagner en influence à la Maison-Blanche si leur candidat l’emportait. Comme le souligne Louise Chetcuti, un second mandat de Donald Trump pourrait s’avérer beaucoup plus radical que le premier : c’est pourquoi, afin d’en mieux anticiper les lignes directrices, il est crucial d’identifier les cercles de conseillers les plus susceptibles d’influencer l’agenda de l’ancien président.
Au cœur de la galaxie trumpienne : ceux qui parlent à l’oreille du candidat | Institut Montaigne
USA – Asia
(Robert D. Blackwill, Richard Fontaine – Council on Foreign Relations) After the rise of Chinese power during the 2010s and failed U.S. policies in the Indo-Pacific, the United States should renew the Pivot to Asia and place the region at the center of its grand strategy.
How the United States Can Effectively Pivot to Asia | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
