LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
2024 – Conflicts
Paul B. Stares (Council on Foreign Relations) writes that, for the first time in its sixteen-year history, the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual Preventive Priorities Survey found that foreign policy experts’ top concern is not an external threat to U.S. interests, but the possibility of internal conflict, particularly in the 2024 presidential election. Conducted each November by the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action, the survey asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests
Conflicts to Watch in 2024 | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Artificial Intelligence
Arvind Gupta, Aakash Guglani (Observer Research Foundation) write that, with the proliferation of generative AI applications, large language models, and efforts to operationalize artificial general intelligence, there is a global race to govern these perspectives. India took the lead in the Global Partnership of Artificial Intelligence and hosted the summit in New Delhi in December. The G20 is at the forefront of regulating and enforcing fair standards for artificial intelligence and other associated technologies
AI governance outlook: A Global South perspective (orfonline.org)
Bangladesh
Sohini Bose (Observer Research Foundation) writes that Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific Outlook, published in April 2023, is a projection of its interests in the region. The country’s attention to respecting the rule of law and maintaining regional stability makes it a favorable partner for neighboring countries and the main powers of the Indo-Pacific. Bangladesh has close ties with China, Japan and the United States and a special relationship with India, with mutual benefits. However, a possible change of power in Dhaka following the January 7 elections could trigger turbulence in the region
Central Asia
Pravesh Kumar Gupta (Vivekananda International Foundation) writes that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began, the spotlight has been on the nations of Central Asia. These countries have chosen a balanced approach, maintaining links with Russia and expanding their ties with the rest of the world, including the United States, the West and the Middle East
China
Gopal Suri, Prerna Gandhi (Vivekananda International Foundation) analyze the prospects of the Belt and Road Initiative. With China’s economy growing at a significantly slower pace than a decade ago, there has been debate over Beijing’s willingness and ability to continue pouring money into the BRI. At the 3rd Belt and Road Forum in October 2023, China’s president declared that the BRI will be “small but smart” and market-oriented, signaling a change in the decade-old initiative often criticized for helping to exacerbate the debt emergency in developing countries
China – Japan – South Korea
Pratnashree Basu, Aishiki Chowdhury (Observer Research Foundation) write that discussions to restart the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral have been greeted with cautious optimism
Is there a future for the China-Japan-Korea Trilateral? (orfonline.org)
India
Niyati Gupt, Steffi Olickal (World Resources Institute) write that India aims to reduce emissions intensity by 45% by 2030, and reach net zero emissions by 2070. The country cannot achieve any of the two goals without a radical transformation in the building and construction sector which was responsible for approximately 17% of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2019
India’s Shift to Low-carbon Construction Must Include Workers | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
Japan
1 – Willem Thorbecke (East Asia Forum) writes that, in a year characterized by a slow recovery due to the pandemic, global conflicts and interest rate increases, the Japanese economy faced inflation, exchange rate volatility, rising commodity prices, nominal wage increases and other shocks
Inflation and its demons define Japan’s precarious 2023 | East Asia Forum
2 – Rajaram Panda (Vivekananda International Foundation) writes that, in response to increased geopolitical stress in the region, Japan’s vulnerability has increased. This led Fumio Kishida’s administration to make some drastic changes to the country’s security. The main factors driving this policy rethink are: volatility in the South China Sea; China’s growing assertiveness on regional issues; North Korea’s growing development of nuclear weapons. Added to this, according to the Author, is the scenario that is emerging in Taiwan
Near East
1 – David Daoud (Atlantic Council) writes that since Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, Lebanon has found itself embroiled in the war between Israel and Palestinian terrorist factions in the Gaza Strip. On January 2, Israel eliminated senior Hamas official Saleh Al-Arouri with a precision attack in the heart of Hezbollah-controlled south Beirut. The attack also killed two other commanders of Hamas’ Izzeldine Al-Qassam Brigades, Azzam Al-Aqra and Samir Fundi, and four other Hamas fighters
2 – Sanam Vakil, Neil Quilliam (Chatham House) write that, almost three months into the devastating war in Gaza, states in the region have prioritized calls for a ceasefire and elevated the humanitarian catastrophe to a primary concern order. Of course they are right. This, however, should not prevent states in the region from working together to support the Palestinians. Nor should stop them from building on the successes of last year’s series of rapprochements: between Saudi Arabia and Iran; between the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye; before that, between Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt and Qatar. To preserve these successes and demonstrate regional autonomy, the time has come for states to act
Singapore
Faizal Bin Yahya (East Asia Forum) writes that the global tightening of monetary policy in 2022 by central banks to curb excess liquidity and combat soaring inflation has sparked fears of a global economic slowdown. Estimates from the International Monetary Fund predict that global growth will fall to 2.9% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022. Heavily trade-dependent economies such as Singapore will be hit hardest by these monetary tightening measures
Singapore’s economy weathered the storm in 2023 | East Asia Forum
USA
Carla Walker, Caitlin Macomber (World Resources Institute) write that, since the beginning of his presidency, Joe Biden has been resolute in addressing climate and environmental inequalities that affect vulnerable and historically marginalized communities. Executive Order 14008 laid the groundwork to reshape the agency’s operations and programs to integrate and support environmental justice and equity principles. Additionally, the Justice40 initiative seeks to direct 40% of the benefits of certain climate investments to disadvantaged communities
5 Ways the US is Driving Environmental Justice Forward | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
Nuovo Umanesimo / New Humanism (Marco Emanuele)
- Nuovo umanesimo e pace. La storiografia del profondo / New humanism and peace. The historiography of the depths
- Nuovo umanesimo e pace. Dentro la ‘tri-unità’ / New humanism and peace. Inside the ‘tri-unity’
- Nuovo umanesimo e pace. Un lavoro ‘tri-unitario’ / New humanism and peace. A ‘tri-unitary’ work
- Nuovo umanesimo e pace. Occorre spezzare il circolo vizioso del ri-vendicare / New humanism and peace. We need to break the vicious cycle of re-avenging
- Medio Oriente: la guerra liquida del terrorismo / Middle East: the liquid war of terrorism (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Medio Oriente. C’è chi vuole un conflitto regionale ma non sappiamo chi è / Middle East. Someone wants a regional conflict but we don’t know who (Carlo Rebecchi)
- La complessità e le giuste domande / Complexity and the right questions (Marzia Giglioli)
- L’intelligenza artificiale e la sindrome Oppenheimer / Artificial intelligence and the Oppenheimer syndrome (Marzia Giglioli)
- Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
