LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
L’Africa è il ‘cuore’ e l’ ‘oltre’ dell’Europa / Africa is the ‘heart’ and ‘beyond’ of Europe (Marco Emanuele)
Colonialismo ante e post. Le parole che fermano il dialogo (Marzia Giglioli)
Biden, come fermare l’Iran senza provocare la guerra (Carlo Rebecchi)
Democrazia e rivoluzione tecnologica: un rapporto ‘complesso’ / Democracy and technological revolution: a ‘complex’ relationship (Marco Emanuele)
Musk, primo impianto cerebrale in un essere umano. Un ‘Link’ indissolubile tra uomo e computer (Marzia Giglioli)
La nuova anima ecologista dell’America e la decisione di bloccare l’export di gas naturale (Marzia Giglioli)
Intelligenza artificiale: il rischio dei dati spazzatura (Marzia Giglioli)
Wall Street guarda all’intelligenza artificiale. Il Nasdaq continua a macinare record (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia – India
(Kim Heriot-Darragh – ASPI The Strategist) In the public discussion on Australia’s defence relationship with India, Army-to-Army cooperation gets short shrift. That’s understandable, with maritime issues at the heart of both countries’ strategic interests. The Australian and Indian navies will naturally attract the spotlight
Australia shouldn’t lose sight of the Indian army | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Pacific
(Joanne Wallis, Quentin Hanich, Michael Rose – ASPI The Strategist) Defence diplomacy, the peaceful use of defence resources to pursue foreign and strategic policy objectives, is generally viewed as positively contributing to Australia’s statecraft, especially in the Pacific Islands region
China – Myanmar
(Enze Han – East Asia Forum) China has cautiously navigated its conflicting relationships in Myanmar, offering support to both the military junta State Administration Council and ethnic armed organisations. By employing a hedging strategy, China aims to safeguard its interests within the evolving political scenarios. This is evident in China’s efforts to contribute to political stability, extend support to diverse factions and concurrently forge new alliances. China has also engaged with the National Unity Government, demonstrating a willingness to cultivate fresh partnerships with entities committed to upholding existing agreements and endorsing the One China Policy
Beijing hedges its bets in Myanmar | East Asia Forum
Maldives – India
(Urmika Deb – ASPI The Strategist) On 4 January, three officials from Maldives’ Ministry of Youth Empowerment, Information and Arts criticised India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to India’s smallest union territory, Lakshadweep
Maldives walks a diplomatic tightrope with India | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia – Ukraine – European Union
(Armida van Rij – Chatham House) As Russia continues to weaponize migrants to undermine EU unity on Ukraine, the EU can learn important lessons from Finland
Space
(Bruce McClintock, Andrew Radin, Cortney Weinbaum, Stephanie Anne Pillion, Bonnie L. Triezenberg, Jonathan Cham, Daniel Elinoff, Maggie Habib, Mark Hvizda, Kotryna Jukneviciute, et al.) Recent U.S. strategy documents have stressed clearly and consistently that close cooperation with allies is central to U.S. strategy, especially in space. However, allies have grown increasingly vocal about a “say-do gap” between what the United States says in high-level policy statements and what it does to make tangible progress toward allied space cooperation. This gap has created a perception among some allies that such cooperation is an afterthought rather than a consciously planned activity undertaken “by design.”
Charting a Path to Thoughtful Allied Space Power: Allied by Design | RAND
UK
(Richard Lowes – RUSI) With the UK’s gas dependence fully unmasked by the Russian assault on Ukraine, it is essential that the financial and security costs associated with importing gas, and the security value of clean heating and energy efficiency, are reflected in government energy policy decisions
Clean Heating is Vital for UK Energy Security | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Ukraine
(George Ingram, Priya Vora – Brookings) As of the end of 2023, some 14 million Ukrainians had fled their homes since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022—5.1 million internally and 6.2 million throughout Europe.1 This represents the largest human displacement crisis in the world today. While there is no silver lining to a crisis of this scale and depth, this paper attempts to understand one factor that is contributing to Ukraine’s resilience in a time of war and supporting enormous numbers of displaced individuals in their efforts to resume normal life: citizens’ ability to easily access their identity certificates, education credentials, health care records, and financial support through the government’s online citizen portal
Ukraine: Digital resilience in a time of war | Brookings
USA
1 – (Joseph B. Keller, Manann Donoghoe, ndre M. Perry – Brookings) Last fall, the Fifth National Climate Assessment—a quadrennial analysis from the U.S. Global Change Research Program—outlined the country’s dire climate status.The Assessment emphasized social systems and justice—directly linking reductions in greenhouse gas emissions with reducing racial disparities in the U.S. As the report lays bare, climate impacts have unequal burdens, which fall most heavily on communities of color and low-income communities. Yet to effectively address these harms and lay a strong foundation for climate and environmental justice, policymakers must acknowledge and confront the growing environmental impacts of an emerging technology: artificial intelligence
The US must balance climate justice challenges in the era of artificial intelligence | Brookings
2 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Immigration has been an important element of U.S. economic and cultural vitality since the country’s founding. CFR outlines the evolution of U.S. immigration policy after World War II
Timeline: U.S. Postwar Immigration Policy (cfr.org)
3 – (Christopher Preble, Evan Cooper, Kelly A. Grieco, Aude Darnal, Emma Ashford, Robert A. Manning – Stimson Center) There are major questions facing U.S. foreign policy in 2024. The U.S. presidential election, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, relations with China, and global economic challenges will all test the United States and its policymakers
Testing Assumptions About US Foreign Policy in 2024 • Stimson Center
4 – (Christopher Preble – Stimson Center) The leading danger to the United States in 2024 “is not an overseas conflict or foreign threat but a homegrown one,” Paul Stares explains in a summary of the Council on Foreign Relations’ Preventive Priorities Survey. The Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer similarly warns of “the US vs. itself,” and Robert Manning and Mathew Burrows of the Stimson Center count the possibility of political violence in the United States as among the top risks this year, along with fights over combating climate change and “out of control AI.”
Today’s Challenges Cry Out for New Approaches to US Security • Stimson Center
5 – (Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) Fear struck across Europe, a continent that is home to more than 746 million people, as just over 300,000 voters in a small state in the upper northeast corner of the United States delivered a resounding 11-point victory for former president Donald Trump. With the result in the New Hampshire primary contest, the hope that Nikki Haley could turn the tide and bring a degree of normalcy back to the Republican Party quickly collapsed
USA – Asia
(Glen S. Fukushima – East Asia Forum) 2023 began with heightened tensions between the United States and China, symbolised by the incident involving a suspected Chinese spy balloon. US President Joe Biden’s efforts to engage with Asia saw him hosting a timely Trilateral Leaders’ Summit involving Japan and South Korea, visiting Vietnam and striving to stabilise relations with Asia amid continuing global conflicts. And while the year ended on a high in Asia, questions were rightly raised about Biden’s lack of a comprehensive Asia strategy and the outdated, Cold War-mentality of administration officials
Solid processes yield mixed outcomes in US–East Asia relations | East Asia Forum
USA – China
(Council on Foreign Relations) National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan discusses U.S.-China relations and the Biden administration’s policy priorities for the relationship going forward
The Future of U.S.-China Relations | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – Indonesia
(Arrizal Jaknanihan, Alfin Basundoro – East Asia Forum) Despite upgrading its relationship with the United States to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Indonesia’s relations with the United States remain superficial and lack substantive economic and security cooperation. Differences in how Indonesia perceives regional threats and its preference for nonalignment relegate the CSP to being largely symbolic. This deficit is not helped by the United States visibly prioritising its relationships with Vietnam and the Philippines
Symbolism over substance in US–Indonesia partnership | East Asia Forum
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
