LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Biden, come fermare l’Iran senza provocare la guerra (Carlo Rebecchi)
Democrazia e rivoluzione tecnologica: un rapporto ‘complesso’ / Democracy and technological revolution: a ‘complex’ relationship (Marco Emanuele)
Musk, primo impianto cerebrale in un essere umano. Un ‘Link’ indissolubile tra uomo e computer (Marzia Giglioli)
La nuova anima ecologista dell’America e la decisione di bloccare l’export di gas naturale (Marzia Giglioli)
Intelligenza artificiale: il rischio dei dati spazzatura (Marzia Giglioli)
Wall Street guarda all’intelligenza artificiale. Il Nasdaq continua a macinare record (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(Aylin Caliskan, Kristian Lum – Brookings) The latest generation of AI models are more general-purpose than previous generations, creating challenges for regulation. Even in highly regulated context, the general-purpose nature of modern AI models makes it difficult to predict how these models will be used. If tech companies truly want effective regulation, they will need to voluntarily share information with regulators and the general public to foster an actionable understanding of general-purpose AI tools and their regulatory needs
Effective AI regulation requires understanding general-purpose AI | Brookings
Asia
The global economic landscape is changing fast. Scarring from the Covid-19 pandemic has weakened potential growth, making slower income gains the new normal for many countries
A new economic policy agenda for Asia as challenges mount | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Cambodia
(Jayant Menon – East Asia Forum) Cambodia aspires to attain upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2050. To realise these ambitions, the country must address specific challenges hindering inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth. This involves promoting intra-sectoral diversification, refining the education system, mitigating the high cost of doing business, diminishing dependence on non-renewable energy sources, fortifying responses to environmental and financial shocks and substantially lifting government spending on healthcare
Overcoming constraints to inclusive growth in Cambodia | East Asia Forum
Canada – Ukraine
(Wesley Wark – CIGI) The wintry dawn of a third year of the brutal war in Ukraine will soon arrive. The military situation looks bleak. The question is whether 2024 will be a make-or-break year for Ukrainian resistance. Canada has an important role to play, and a promise to keep, in ensuring that 2024 is not the year that Ukrainian resistance was broken
A New Deal for Ukraine – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
China – USA
The global footprint of criminal groups from China has expanded along with China’s economic and geopolitical presence around the world. North America’s fentanyl crisis thrust China-linked criminal networks and their expanding international connections, such as with the Sinaloa Cartel, to U.S. policy forefront
Chinese crime and geopolitics in 2024 | Brookings
Indonesia
(Siwage Dharma Negara – East Asia Forum) Indonesia experienced significant events under President Jokowi’s administration which include hosting the FIFA U-17 World Cup, launching the nation’s first high-speed railway and supporting Prabowo Subianto in the 2024 general election. Despite economic slowdowns due to global influences, the Jokowi administration strived to stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects and policies, including managing inflation, boosting the digital economy and implementing social and fiscal policies to assist vulnerable groups and small businesses
Jokowi’s final act | East Asia Forum
Japan
(Yusaku Yoshikawa – East Asia Forum) Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA), established after the Second World War to improve farmer productivity and economic status, now face challenges from a declining farming population and increased agricultural costs. Despite becoming a powerful financial body with profit from insurance and credit services, critics argue that JA has distanced itself from being a true agricultural cooperative. For JA to reform and thrive in a changing environment, it should redefine its relationship with the agricultural industry, changing from from a managerial to a supportive role. JA should also seek new markets and endorse autonomy for municipal organisations to revitalise agriculture in local communities
Reform needed to revitalise Japan Agricultural Cooperatives | East Asia Forum
Malaysia
(Francis Hutchinson – East Asia Forum) Despite facing an uncertain mandate and a polarised political climate, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim succeeded in consolidating power for his Unity Government in Malaysia in 2023. But limited socioeconomic reforms and slow policy roll-out mean continuing economic struggles among Malaysian citizens. Anwar’s faltering popularity signals an impatient electorate waiting in 2024
Malaysian Unity Government’s power was retained but constrained in 2023 | East Asia Forum
Maldives – India
(Arkoprabho Hazra – Lowy The Interpreter) Since the election of a new president in the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, the relationship with New Delhi has experienced a downturn. Muizzu assumed power in November, having won the top job on an “India Out” campaign, asking India to withdraw military personnel from its island neighbour. Muizzu also broke with tradition by opting not to make New Delhi his first foreign visit
India’s Maldives boycott is leverage lost | Lowy Institute
Near East
1 – (Atlantic Council) According to Qatar’s prime minister, Doha has been warning “from day one” that the Israel-Hamas war could spiral across the Middle East. And now—one day after an Iran-backed militant group launched a drone attack that killed three US servicemembers in Jordan— “we are seeing that the situation is boiling up here and there, and everyone, unfortunately, is dancing at the edge,” warned Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani
2 – (Ray Takeyh – Council on Foreign Relations) An attack from Iran-aligned forces that killed U.S. service members near Jordan’s border with Syria risks direct U.S.-Iran conflict in a region already embroiled in widening violence
Drone Strike Risks Dangerous U.S.-Iran Escalation | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
3 – (Jon B. Alterman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On January 28, a drone reportedly piloted by forces connected to Iran killed three U.S. troops at a base in northeast Jordan and wounded more than two dozen more. The strike is the highest casualty event the United States has had in the Middle East in more than a decade
What Will the United States Do after the Drone Strike in Jordan? (csis.org)
4 – (Ben Scott – Lowy The Interpreter) The death of three US soldiers in a drone attack conducted by Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq on Tower 22, a US military base in Jordan adjacent to the Iraq-Syria-Jordan border, has further heightened fears that the conflict in Gaza could “metastasise and spread across the region”
An Iranian trap in Yemen | Lowy Institute
North Korea
(Gabriela Bernal – Lowy The Interpreter) North Korea started the new year with a bang, declaring it will no longer pursue unification with an “enemy” in South Korea. More cruise missile tests have set the region on edge, while North Korean weapons are appearing on Ukraine’s battlefield
Open and shut: North Korea sends a message with its embassy network | Lowy Institute
Pakistan
(Sajjad Ashraf – East Asia Forum) Following Imran Khan’s ousting as prime minister in 2022, Pakistan has experienced significant instability amid political upheaval and economic crises in 2023. An anti-Khan coalition government of doubtful legitimacy faces allegations of violating the constitutional order in suppressing the opposition. As the government moves towards stage-managed elections, Pakistan faces a tough 2024 and beyond
Pakistan’s political meltdown | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Callum Fraser – RUSI) As election season looms in Russia, the Central Election Commission’s chosen opponents to the president will help to boost Putin’s narrative that he is the sole person capable of navigating Russia through this turbulent period
Putin’s Grand Plan for Russia’s 2024 Elections | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
South Korea – Ukraine
(Anthony Rinna – East Asia Forum) South Korea is focusing on its partnership with Ukraine, with the aim of leveraging Ukraine’s abundant lithium resources for its burgeoning battery industry. But despite the potential benefits, South Korea faces the challenge of navigating its dependency on China for critical minerals, whilst presenting itself as an independent and reliable alternative for Europe’s renewable battery industry. This is especially difficult amid growing fear that China’s dominance puts Europe in a vulnerable position, and regulations limiting cooperation with China
South Korea–Ukraine partnership charged with reenergising Europe’s battery market | East Asia Forum
USA
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) It’s hard to disagree with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’s argument that the United States is confronting the greatest threat to global order that it has “in decades, perhaps ever”—with intractable wars in Europe and the Middle East and tensions that could easily escalate in Asia
The United States is unprepared for this nightmare scenario – Atlantic Council
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
