LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Cambodia
(Heidi Dahles – East Asia Forum) Only days after Cambodia’s recently elected national assembly endorsed Hun Manet as the country’s new prime minister, the young leader revealed his vision for the next 25 years of economic growth and prosperity. Cambodia is aspiring to become a high-income country by 2050. To make this happen, Manet released his Pentagonal Strategy, centring on the five objectives of sustained economic growth, more and better employment, human capital development, diversification of the economy and increased competitiveness
Reality tempers Cambodia’s renewed economic optimism | East Asia Forum
China
(Genevieve Donnellon-May – ASPI The Strategist) China’s recent decision to expand the pilot planting of genetically modified soybeans has the potential to reshape the global soybean trade. Soybeans, crucial in animal feed, human food and industrial products, are immensely important in China. Although the country is a major soybean producer soybean production at 20 million tonnes, China is remains the world’s largest importer, accounting for more than 60% of global demand
China – Gulf
(Ghulam Ali – East Asia Forum) China’s pursuit of internationalising the yuan, currency swaps, e-currency, cross-border deals and digitalised currency have recently made international news. These efforts are mainly on the rise with Gulf states. On 28 November 2023, the People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates renewed their currency swap agreement worth US$4.89 billion for five years. Both banks also signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance collaboration in digital currency development
Chinese yuan gains currency in the Gulf states | East Asia Forum
Global Perspectives
1 – (Atlantic Council) The snow leopards that stalk the rocky mountains of Central Asia are so elusive and well-camouflaged that they’ve earned the nickname “ghost of the mountains.” They’re out there, but exceedingly hard to spot. These solitary big cats are a useful analogy for the global phenomena that can seem to come out of nowhere and take even the most seasoned observer by surprise
Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2024 – Atlantic Council
2 – (David Uren – ASPI The Strategist) Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have had almost no impact on the oil price, despite the volume of oil shipped through the waterway surging 80% over the last two years because of the war in the Ukraine. Markets more worried about a soft global economy and rising US and Brazilian oil production than by the prospect of interrupted oil flows, having already seen the global oil market adjust to the massive disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of its neighbour
Shipping oil through troubled waters | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Near East
1 – (James Coker – Infosecurity Magazine) Iran-linked threat actors are targeting high-profile researchers working on the Israel-Hamas conflict via a sophisticated social engineering campaign, according to Microsoft Threat Intelligence
2 – (Kali Robinson – Council on Foreign Relations) Power in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the so-called Palestinian territories, has been divided among three entities: a governing body called the Palestinian Authority, the militant group Hamas, and the state of Israel. But as Israel now seeks to destroy Hamas, it is unclear who would administer Gaza instead
Who Governs the Palestinians? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Pacific
(Meg Keen, Mihai Sora – Lowy The Interpreter) Nauru’s decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China reflects the intense geopolitical competition in the Pacific and the sustained, but not always visible, push from China to erode diplomatic support for Taiwan and further isolate the country
Nauru’s diplomatic switch to China – the rising stakes in Pacific geopolitics | Lowy Institute
Pakistan – Iran
(Atlantic Council) On Tuesday, Iran used missiles and drones to strike western Pakistan near Koh-e-Sabz. On Thursday, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in southeastern Iran near Saravan, then released a statement claiming that “Iran is a brotherly country”. More than a sibling squabble is going on here. Iran and Pakistan were apparently targeting hideouts of armed non-state actors—Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan, and the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front in Iran—that each country accuses the other of harboring. Will the tit-for-tat strikes escalate? How does this flashpoint fit in with ongoing conflicts involving Iranian proxies in Yemen and Gaza?
Experts react: What’s really going on with Pakistan and Iran exchanging attacks? – Atlantic Council
Philippines
(Kevin Nielsen M Agojo – East Asia Forum) Despite mixed results in his first year in office, the promising developments in the presidency of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr should not be overlooked. His notable achievements include the signing of the New Agrarian Emancipation Act, which condoned US$1 billion of debts belonging to 610,054 beneficiaries. He also signed the Regional Specialty Centers Act, which institutionalises the creation of new specialty health centres. His administration also granted amnesty to members of various rebel groups, agreed to resume peace talks with insurgents and ordered the recalibration of the infamous National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict
Marcos’s first year was a mixed bag for the Philippines | East Asia Forum
Singapore
(Michael Barr – East Asia Forum) Last year was unprecedented in independent Singapore’s history. Difficulties have arisen in past years for the government, the economy, specific sections of the Singaporean populace or in terms of escalating repression, but 2023 encompassed all the above. Recovering Singapore’s reputation for clean governance will not be an easy task. In January 2023, six executives of Keppel Corp, a government linked company, were found by the US Department of Justice to have paid US$55 million in bribes to win contracts with Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. When the case reached Singapore, however, the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) declined prosecuting or even identifying the culprits due to ‘lack of evidence’, issuing ‘stern warnings’ to the ex-Keppel executives instead
Singapore’s year of living scandalously | East Asia Forum
South China Sea
(Collin Koh – East Asia Forum) The state visit to Beijing by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in January 2023 did not yield the momentum for bilateral ties that his predecessor’s trip in 2017 did. Barely one month after the state visit, there was a flareup in the South China Sea with the Chinese coastguard’s lasing of its Philippine counterpart off Second Thomas Shoal. The situation went downhill, especially after Manila publicised Beijing’s coercive behaviour. There was the floating barrier incident in the Scarborough Shoal, though the focal point has centred on the Second Thomas Shoal where the Chinese and Filipinos faced off. Chinese forces harassed the Philippine rotation and resupply missions to the outpost and fired water cannons at the latter — the first documented instance since 2021
Muscle and mediation set to continue in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
South Korea
(Stephen Costello – East Asia Forum) During 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol sought to deepen contacts with Japan, the United States and other like-minded countries, while paying less attention to authoritarian neighbours like China, Russia and North Korea. South Korea’s indirect transfer of artillery shells to Ukraine will negatively impact its relations with Russia. Its neglect of dialogue with North Korea, expanded military cooperation and exercises with the United States and efforts to ‘de-risk’ from China will complicate relations with Xi. Seoul’s anti-North Korea rhetoric and acts to cancel the 2018 North–South military agreement have raised tensions on the peninsula and provoked harsh rebukes from Pyongyang
Yoon’s gamble with ideology undercuts democracy and ignites inter-Korean tensions | East Asia Forum
Taiwan
1 – (Catherine Shu – TechCrunch) Lai Ching-te, who won Taiwan’s presidential election last Saturday, will be facing a crossroads in the country’s technology industry when he takes office in May. Lai’s administration will be the third term of Democratic Progressive Party rule in Taiwan, and he is widely expected to continue the work of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, when it comes to supporting one of the country’s biggest economic drivers and most valuable exports: its semiconductor industry. But Lai has spoken several times about Taiwan’s chips without laying out specific policies, and he may find himself having to adapt as the industry becomes increasingly vulnerable to geopolitics
Taiwan’s president-elect faces growing challenges with its chip industry | TechCrunch
2 – (Albert Zhang – ASPI The Strategist) ASPI has identified multiple attempts by the Chinese Communist Party to manipulate Taiwanese voters by spreading disinformation and propaganda across social media. These influence operations primarily sought to undermine Democratic Progressive Party presidential and legislative candidates. We assess they likely had a minimal impact on the integrity of the election results due to the resilience of Taiwan’s civil society. Partial credit must also go to the Taiwanese government for its efforts to raise public awareness of electoral interference, and a crackdown on other illicit activities, such as the spreading of fake polls
USA
(Will Freeman – Council on Foreign Relations) For Biden and the Democrats, everything—the president’s foreign policy agenda, the prospect of a government shutdown, even holding onto the White House—seems to be riding on negotiations around border and asylum policy, spurred on by the unprecedented numbers of migrants and asylum arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border
Tough New Immigration Rules Risk Empowering the Cartels | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Il vincolo, i limiti e il respiro della Storia / The bond, the limits and the breath of History
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Golfo e Taiwan: stesso mare, stesse turbolenze, stessi pericoli di guerra (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Tra intelligenza umana, ‘senso’ democratico e rivoluzione tecnologica (Marzia Giglioli)
- Disuguaglianze in scenari complessi / Inequalities in complex scenarios (Marco Emanuele)
- Le disuguaglianze crescono. Il rapporto di Oxfam (Marzia Giglioli)
- Intelligenza artificiale e guerra. Riflessione sui limiti (Marzia Giglioli)
- Oltre i confini. Per il dialogo. A colloquio con Domitilla Olivieri (Università di Utrecht) / Beyond borders. For dialogue. In conversation with Domitilla Olivieri (Utrecht University) (Marzia Giglioli)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
